I think your point that sometimes the "educated" answer is not the correct one is still a good one, but to me "global warming" is about rates rather than levels

I think your point that sometimes the "educated" answer is not the correct one is still a good one, but to me "global warming" is about rates rather than levels - warming, not warmth - and the belief is that the change in atmospheric CO2 concentration is what is causing the warming (change in warmth), whereas water vapor concentration is not changing enough, or in a consistent enough direction, to be the culprit. I feel like the midwit thing applies here... Sometimes the "mid" answer is wrong for subtle reasons that still make it essentially right...