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Ultimately he's making a pretty big claim about Google's future here that isn't grounded in reality. This is the same sort of talk that crowned Microsoft the t
by Steko 14y ago
Ultimately he's making a pretty big claim about Google's future here that isn't grounded in reality. This is the same sort of talk that crowned Microsoft the tablet king over a decade ago while reality waited for Apple to actually build a consumer viable version.
Whether it's the usual suspects like Google, MS and Apple who we know are already spending R&D here or a new entrant like Instagram which came out of nowhere with a handful of user friendly features, or some China anointed alternative it should be obvious that it's way to early to start counting chickens.
- robinsloan 14y agoAuthor here: You're right that it's a big claim, and I think it requires a lot of imagination & even some suspension of disbelief. It's safer to be skeptical. But specifically re: competition of all shapes & sizes, I do think that two of Google's long-term investments give it a pretty strong position: 1. Google Maps & Street View, which together comprise an amazingly detailed model of the real world. There are alternatives like OpenStreetMap of course, but there's a lot more going on in those products than just navigation. 2. The technology embedded in the self-driving car. I mean, a system that can interpret a live feed of the chaotic world around it and make important decisions based on what it sees? It doesn't feel to me like you can Instagram your way into that capability. (But, I don't know: maybe it's more commodified than I realize.)
- apu 14y agoTo lend some credence to these claims: other than the well-known Sebastian Thrun, Google also has at least a dozen world-class computer vision researchers working on a variety of different products, from Maps to the self-driving car to Goggles and others. This is some serious fire power, and in so far as the technical problems are unsolved (which they mostly are right now), no other company can touch them in the near future. Of course, there is always the important step of making something that consumers will use, but that's only possible if the technical problems are solved first. And perhaps Google is learning how to make more consumer-friendly things...
- cdavid 14y agoI don't have numbers to back it up, but I would gather that at least MS has as many if not more world class researchers in those fields.