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Sir I challenge you to a bet, $100 to our respective favorite charities. In my opinion Google Glass is set to be a game changer from the start. I wager that w
by swalsh 14y ago
Sir I challenge you to a bet, $100 to our respective favorite charities.
In my opinion Google Glass is set to be a game changer from the start. I wager that when google glass is launched, it will be a cultural icon no more than 1.5 years later.
It's clear WHY google needs glass. Owning the channel between my eyes and the world is a huge potential pot of money. Targeted ads have a lot of potential to disrupt the ad space, and if facebook ever decides to make their own ad network (such as Google's ad sense) competition will be fierce. Google glass is a really good way to increase their competitive advantage, and cement their position in the advertising arena.
Additionally, of the companies that would be interested in making a product like google glass (facebook, microsoft, IBM etc) Google probably has the best mix of engineers to do it. I've always said that Google is an AI company first. Well a huge part of AI is machine vision, and a large part of successfully monetizing google glass is machine vision. Additionally, with street view, and other aggressive initiatives Google is in one of the best positions to actually understand what and where the world you are looking at. Finally, while google has proven in the past they are weak as a hardware company (nexus 1) they have demonstrated they are capable of bringing a consumer product to the mass market... though perhaps maybe not enough to make it anything less then a wild card.
Finally the last point is one of consumer adoption. The newton pad was not successful in part because the hardware was premature. But I would speculate it was also in part because consumers weren't at the point of understanding the value. The hardware in Google glass is unknown at this point, and potentially could under-deliver... and that will cause it to be a newton.. but for the reasons i said above I think Google is capable of delivering a quality product. However consumer readiness will not be an issue. 1 billion people are already on Facebook. Social interaction through technology is accepted today more then ever before. Using smartphones in public is not only accepted, its normal. Years ago using a PDA might have made you look like a yuppie, but today no one would notice.
- jack-r-abbit 14y agoI was thinking the same thing. I think one of the biggest issues with the Newton was timing. We are a different people now than then. The timing is right. If they don't mess it up with weird looking hardware, then it will probably be a success.
- gcb 14y ago> If they don't mess it up with weird looking hardware Q.E.D.
- jack-r-abbit 14y agoI don't follow.
- gcb 14y agoWas an attempt at joke. Everyone do find the glasses a joke to be displayed in public environments already
- jack-r-abbit 14y agooh, ok. I thought that is what you might have meant. These are prototypes so far I think. Hopefully the production version is less weird looking. :)
- gcb 14y ago1. i don't believe in paying third party charity 2. you think all that for the same reason I also think all that: Wishful thinking... but deep inside i can see the truth. we are the hippies-yuppies who will buy it :) put yourself on the shoes of people hearing about the newton back then: handwriting recognition!! how wouldn't want that instead of a 3x4 phone keyboard? Turned out 99.9% prefered T9. it's all the same. we are thinking as if the implementation and day-to-day use would be perfect on such a new concept on the first try. well, odds are it wont. but in one year can get back to it and see if my money goes to one of your charities or if your money will buy me something shinny (that's one bet i'd like to lose...)
- swalsh 14y ago1.) Fair enough
- dannyr 14y agoPut your money where your mouth is.
- dandelany 14y agoSo wait, you're morally against giving money to a charity but you're perfectly okay with betting his charity against your free money? Honestly curious. Also - implementation and day-to-day use don't have to be perfect for it to be a game-changer/overnight success/cultural icon. As evidenced by... Well, pretty much every piece of successful consumer electronics ever made that has gone through multiple generations/revisions.
- gcb 14y agoyes, I AM against. but if he wins the bet, my money goes to it since for me to lose means he won. as it seems to be what he's into. and yes. they work like that. the discussion is if it will happen in 1 year as he says or in 10-15 years as history says. see what i did there? i put my words as valid as "history". hah. clever.
- cbr 14y ago> i don't believe in paying third party charity Why? Some are really good: http://givewell.org/international/top-charities/ http://givewell.org/international/top-charities/
- zeroonetwothree 14y agoWhat does "cultural icon" mean? Is the Segway a cultural icon even though only ~30,000 of them exist? Pretty much everyone knows what it is but most people have not benefited from them. I would be willing to take this bet if we determine some objective criteria.
- jcampbell1 14y agoI'll gladly take this bet. It is hard to frame since I don't think it will ever launch in any meaningful way (1.5 years from never, is still never). That being said, I think if they sell 20 million units globally before December 31, 2016 you will win the bet. The marketplace is going to reject Glass.