5 ms·

Waymo vehicle crashes 1 week after federal investigation launched into accidents

17 points by flutas 2y ago

reustle 2y ago
Unoccupied, into a poll in an alleyway, minor damage
- jseliger 2y ago
  These kinds of articles are useless without base rates—how often does the median human driver crash per thousand or million miles? How about Waymo? So far, Waymo's safety data looks amazing: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/12/human-drivers-crash-a-lot-more-than-waymos-software-data-shows/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/12/human-drivers-crash-a-l...
  - nicklecompte 2y ago
    My fundamental problem with these studies is that they don't separate out reckless drivers (speeding, drunk, etc). This is a problem because widespread (but not universal) adoption of driverless vehicles might not actually address the underlying problem. Instead of forcing people to use driverless cars, the problem might be more effectively solved by forcing auto manufacturers to use GPS-based speed limiting. And I am not at all convinced that Waymo is safer than a responsible driver who obeys the speed limit, so forcing driverless cars could very well be more dangerous than limiting the speed of human drivers. The worst case scenario is responsible drivers using self-driving because the data told then it was safer (even if it isn't), while irresponsible drivers control their vehicle manually so they can still speed and run red lights. The other problem, more minor, is that Waymos are relatively new vehicles in good condition, but the human crash rates include a number of mechanical failures that driverless cars haven't experienced yet. My most cognitively demanding driving experience was a tire blowout on the interstate... kind of hard to accumulate 60,000 instances of training data for the AI to learn from.
    - antisthenes 2y ago
      > And I am not at all convinced that Waymo is safer than a responsible driver who obeys the speed limit, so forcing driverless cars could very well be more dangerous than limiting the speed of human drivers. I think the value prop is that AI-driver will not get drunk or tired, not that SOTA AI vs Alert/Good human driver is approximately the same. A good human driver can be distracted/tired/influenced by a substance/emotional, all things that drop their performance. An AI cannot.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
- flutas 2y ago
  Yeah, I've since found a little bit better article that would serve as the better link. https://www.12news.com/article/news/local/valley/waymo-car-crashes-into-pole-phoenix-arizona/75-0f278aab-7c40-4970-ae21-ac3d57f0ccba https://www.12news.com/article/news/local/valley/waymo-car-c...
Retric 2y ago
Waymo has enough cars and enough miles (7+ million) they actually crash fairly frequently, while still being considered on par or safer than people. By comparison NYC has ~13,000 taxi and ~10 accidents involving them per day. Edit: https://assets.ctfassets.net/e6t5diu0txbw/54ngcIlGK4EZnUapYvAjyf/7a5b30a670350cc1d85c9d07ca282b0c/Comparison_of_Waymo_Rider_Only_Crash_Data_to_Human_Benchmarks_at_7_1_Million_Miles_arxiv.pdf https://assets.ctfassets.net/e6t5diu0txbw/54ngcIlGK4EZnUapYv...
- WaxProlix 2y ago
  This is the kind of claim that would benefit from backing data.
  - Retric 2y ago
    https://assets.ctfassets.net/e6t5diu0txbw/54ngcIlGK4EZnUapYvAjyf/7a5b30a670350cc1d85c9d07ca282b0c/Comparison_of_Waymo_Rider_Only_Crash_Data_to_Human_Benchmarks_at_7_1_Million_Miles_arxiv.pdf https://assets.ctfassets.net/e6t5diu0txbw/54ngcIlGK4EZnUapYv... There’s a few things to quibble about in the above, but it does have data you can look at.
- spiderxxxx 2y ago
  You are comparing miles to number of taxis, and some vague frequency of accidents vs an inexact statistic. I appreciate you trying, but I believe accident statistics are normally based on "per million vehicle miles traveled". If you're trying to make a statistic, you should probably use that basis.
  - Retric 2y ago
    Waymo doesn’t operate in NYC and uses a different metric for number of accidents so it’s not that simple to directly compare, which is why I just gave accidents per day to give a sense of scale. If you think it’s meaningful, NYC taxi average 70k miles per year and Waymo’s accidents are included in the link.
cbanek 2y ago
For as often as I see the Waymo cars driving around Phoenix, I don't think I've ever seen anyone in the car. But I figure I must be missing something.
monero-xmr 2y ago
It’s pretty obvious a lot of accidents were not reported to any authority, or “reclassified” as something not requiring it. If the government really starts looking they will see a lot of questionable activity.
renewiltord 2y ago
It's funny that people will bemoan The Media as "sensational" etc. etc. A fundamental part of the lifecycle of these memes are the consumers. Flagged for being crap.

17 points by flutas 2y ago

reustle 2y ago

Unoccupied, into a poll in an alleyway, minor damage

jseliger 2y ago
These kinds of articles are useless without base rates—how often does the median human driver crash per thousand or million miles? How about Waymo? So far, Waymo's safety data looks amazing: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/12/human-drivers-crash-a-lot-more-than-waymos-software-data-shows/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/12/human-drivers-crash-a-l...
- nicklecompte 2y ago
  My fundamental problem with these studies is that they don't separate out reckless drivers (speeding, drunk, etc). This is a problem because widespread (but not universal) adoption of driverless vehicles might not actually address the underlying problem. Instead of forcing people to use driverless cars, the problem might be more effectively solved by forcing auto manufacturers to use GPS-based speed limiting. And I am not at all convinced that Waymo is safer than a responsible driver who obeys the speed limit, so forcing driverless cars could very well be more dangerous than limiting the speed of human drivers. The worst case scenario is responsible drivers using self-driving because the data told then it was safer (even if it isn't), while irresponsible drivers control their vehicle manually so they can still speed and run red lights. The other problem, more minor, is that Waymos are relatively new vehicles in good condition, but the human crash rates include a number of mechanical failures that driverless cars haven't experienced yet. My most cognitively demanding driving experience was a tire blowout on the interstate... kind of hard to accumulate 60,000 instances of training data for the AI to learn from.
  - antisthenes 2y ago
    > And I am not at all convinced that Waymo is safer than a responsible driver who obeys the speed limit, so forcing driverless cars could very well be more dangerous than limiting the speed of human drivers. I think the value prop is that AI-driver will not get drunk or tired, not that SOTA AI vs Alert/Good human driver is approximately the same. A good human driver can be distracted/tired/influenced by a substance/emotional, all things that drop their performance. An AI cannot.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
flutas 2y ago
Yeah, I've since found a little bit better article that would serve as the better link. https://www.12news.com/article/news/local/valley/waymo-car-crashes-into-pole-phoenix-arizona/75-0f278aab-7c40-4970-ae21-ac3d57f0ccba https://www.12news.com/article/news/local/valley/waymo-car-c...

Retric 2y ago

Waymo has enough cars and enough miles (7+ million) they actually crash fairly frequently, while still being considered on par or safer than people. By comparison NYC has ~13,000 taxi and ~10 accidents involving them per day. Edit: https://assets.ctfassets.net/e6t5diu0txbw/54ngcIlGK4EZnUapYvAjyf/7a5b30a670350cc1d85c9d07ca282b0c/Comparison_of_Waymo_Rider_Only_Crash_Data_to_Human_Benchmarks_at_7_1_Million_Miles_arxiv.pdf https://assets.ctfassets.net/e6t5diu0txbw/54ngcIlGK4EZnUapYv...

WaxProlix 2y ago
This is the kind of claim that would benefit from backing data.
- Retric 2y ago
  https://assets.ctfassets.net/e6t5diu0txbw/54ngcIlGK4EZnUapYvAjyf/7a5b30a670350cc1d85c9d07ca282b0c/Comparison_of_Waymo_Rider_Only_Crash_Data_to_Human_Benchmarks_at_7_1_Million_Miles_arxiv.pdf https://assets.ctfassets.net/e6t5diu0txbw/54ngcIlGK4EZnUapYv... There’s a few things to quibble about in the above, but it does have data you can look at.
spiderxxxx 2y ago
You are comparing miles to number of taxis, and some vague frequency of accidents vs an inexact statistic. I appreciate you trying, but I believe accident statistics are normally based on "per million vehicle miles traveled". If you're trying to make a statistic, you should probably use that basis.
- Retric 2y ago
  Waymo doesn’t operate in NYC and uses a different metric for number of accidents so it’s not that simple to directly compare, which is why I just gave accidents per day to give a sense of scale. If you think it’s meaningful, NYC taxi average 70k miles per year and Waymo’s accidents are included in the link.

cbanek 2y ago

For as often as I see the Waymo cars driving around Phoenix, I don't think I've ever seen anyone in the car. But I figure I must be missing something.

monero-xmr 2y ago

It’s pretty obvious a lot of accidents were not reported to any authority, or “reclassified” as something not requiring it. If the government really starts looking they will see a lot of questionable activity.

renewiltord 2y ago

It's funny that people will bemoan The Media as "sensational" etc. etc. A fundamental part of the lifecycle of these memes are the consumers. Flagged for being crap.