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Bloomberg consensus data expectations YoY were: 400% earnings growth and 242% revenue growth. The reality was 461% earnings growth (629% GAAP) 262% r

by nabla9 2y ago

Bloomberg consensus data expectations YoY were: 400% earnings growth and 242% revenue growth. The reality was 461% earnings growth (629% GAAP) 262% revenue growth. 78.9% gross margin. Nvidia did it again.

deadbabe 2y ago
How do they keep doing this
- nabla9 2y ago
  as long as supply << demand.
- trhway 2y ago
  in the past - Industrial Revolution - when somebody started producing something profitable others would start similar production too. In our post-Industrial age software provides the moat protecting your hardware margin. The IBM's PC cloning was the perfect illustration when such a moat wasn't utilized. Everybody learned the lesson, pushed for DMCA and the likes and here we're. Speaking about how high is the specific moat here - NVDA had great foresight starting to develop their CUDA almost 20 years ago. I at the time was thinking - the HPC market couldn't be that big to support that investment. Well, when 10 year ago the GPU deep learning arrived with AlexNet the CUDA was ready for that Valkyrie ride we've been seeing since then while all the other players are only starting to wake up at best. That is on supply side. On the demand side - if any projections about AI even in nanobots in your blood come even partially true - we have decades of AI technology growth ahead, and like with other foundational technologies of our civilization - electricity and the internet and the space (guess who is going to mine He3 on the Moon?) - it will be everywhere. NVDA probably like any other company will stagnate and become MBA heaven like say IBM or even rot and perish and/or somebody will come up with completely different technology for AI leaving NVDA in the dust, yet it is hard to see how it can take less than coupe of decades (i.e. hardly can happen until Jensen leaves). (i'm long if any asks :)
  - nabla9 2y ago
    > in the past - Industrial Revolution - when somebody started producing something profitable others would start similar production too. Minor correction. They stole the technology. When British invented textile mills they had strict law against exporting the designs. Cotton was bought from the US to Britain and made into textiles. Samuel Slater is considered the Father of the American Industrial Revolution was called "Slater the Traitor" in Britain. He memorized the textile factory machinery designs when he worked as an apprentice, then moved to the US. Americans, Japanese, Chinese industrialization follows the same proud tradition. You steal when you can't get it any other way.
    - soulofmischief 2y ago
      I couldn't really care less about what CorpGov considers stealing with respect to open distribution of information.
    - theGnuMe 2y ago
      “Beginner poets imitate. Jedi poets steal.”
- erickj 2y ago
  Think of their revenue in an ecosystem. Google announced 2 weeks ago that its Q1 capex for datacenters and servers was $12B. This was up 100% y/y. Goog also expects for this capex spend to be ongoing... A healthy chunk of that is all going to Nvda
- chaostheory 2y ago
  They have no viable competitors at the moment, and there's still a gold rush for AI.
MuffinFlavored 2y ago
> Nvidia did it again. All that for a measly 4% after hours bump? It's like "the street" is tired of this trick/doesn't have much more to give.
- HPsquared 2y ago
  All that means is the market already expected the result to be a good one. The share price already went up on that expectation.
- tedunangst 2y ago
  "Consensus expectations" aren't dollar weighted.
- nabla9 2y ago
  Revenue 8% above estimate, earnings 15%. The price is not just for one quarter but discounted future quarters. I predict that the price can go up 8 - 10% tomorrow.
MangoCoffee 2y ago
Intel could get lucky like Nvidia if Intel doesn't buy back stock and instead spends money on R&D. edit: "Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger raised a few eyebrows by attributing Nvidia's current dominance of the AI market to luck" - https://www.extremetech.com/computing/nvidia-engineer-responds-to-intel-ceo-saying-it-got-lucky-with-ai-dominance#:~:text=A%20few%20days%20ago%2C%20Intel,be%20where%20Nvidia%20is%20now https://www.extremetech.com/computing/nvidia-engineer-respon....
- nabla9 2y ago
  Nvidia is fabless. What Intel really needs to do is get competitive with TSMC. Gelsinger started the process instantly when he became the CEO, but it takes time.
  - thiago_fm 2y ago
    It takes years to build a new fab. The market has no patience for that. Intel is the cheapest tech company by a huge margin if look at book value. Those fabs are expensive, but even if nobody wants Intel processors anymore, they could even manufacture Ryzen's. The downside is that it takes 3-5 years to make profit on a fab, it's easier to be NVidia in that sense, but I wonder if it's sustainable in the long run.
    - bgnn 2y ago
      no exponential growth is sustainable in the long run
- alecco 2y ago
  They would need a culture change. Starting with a mostly independent Skunk Works division and a rethink of their software stack. I wouldn't bet on any of that happening.
- Havoc 2y ago
  Not convinced Intel can turn this around. Both on server and consumer side they've been losing share to AMD for like 7 years straight...cross generations, cross platform...just everywhere with amazing consistency. And if half of the AMD roadmaps/rumours are true then the next couple years will be worse. ...so yeah some casual R&D isn't gonna cut it...they need to pull a rabbit out of a hat urgently.

by nabla9 2y ago

deadbabe 2y ago

How do they keep doing this

nabla9 2y ago
as long as supply << demand.
trhway 2y ago
in the past - Industrial Revolution - when somebody started producing something profitable others would start similar production too. In our post-Industrial age software provides the moat protecting your hardware margin. The IBM's PC cloning was the perfect illustration when such a moat wasn't utilized. Everybody learned the lesson, pushed for DMCA and the likes and here we're. Speaking about how high is the specific moat here - NVDA had great foresight starting to develop their CUDA almost 20 years ago. I at the time was thinking - the HPC market couldn't be that big to support that investment. Well, when 10 year ago the GPU deep learning arrived with AlexNet the CUDA was ready for that Valkyrie ride we've been seeing since then while all the other players are only starting to wake up at best. That is on supply side. On the demand side - if any projections about AI even in nanobots in your blood come even partially true - we have decades of AI technology growth ahead, and like with other foundational technologies of our civilization - electricity and the internet and the space (guess who is going to mine He3 on the Moon?) - it will be everywhere. NVDA probably like any other company will stagnate and become MBA heaven like say IBM or even rot and perish and/or somebody will come up with completely different technology for AI leaving NVDA in the dust, yet it is hard to see how it can take less than coupe of decades (i.e. hardly can happen until Jensen leaves). (i'm long if any asks :)
- nabla9 2y ago
  > in the past - Industrial Revolution - when somebody started producing something profitable others would start similar production too. Minor correction. They stole the technology. When British invented textile mills they had strict law against exporting the designs. Cotton was bought from the US to Britain and made into textiles. Samuel Slater is considered the Father of the American Industrial Revolution was called "Slater the Traitor" in Britain. He memorized the textile factory machinery designs when he worked as an apprentice, then moved to the US. Americans, Japanese, Chinese industrialization follows the same proud tradition. You steal when you can't get it any other way.
  - soulofmischief 2y ago
    I couldn't really care less about what CorpGov considers stealing with respect to open distribution of information.
  - theGnuMe 2y ago
    “Beginner poets imitate. Jedi poets steal.”
erickj 2y ago
Think of their revenue in an ecosystem. Google announced 2 weeks ago that its Q1 capex for datacenters and servers was $12B. This was up 100% y/y. Goog also expects for this capex spend to be ongoing... A healthy chunk of that is all going to Nvda
chaostheory 2y ago
They have no viable competitors at the moment, and there's still a gold rush for AI.

MuffinFlavored 2y ago

> Nvidia did it again. All that for a measly 4% after hours bump? It's like "the street" is tired of this trick/doesn't have much more to give.

HPsquared 2y ago
All that means is the market already expected the result to be a good one. The share price already went up on that expectation.
tedunangst 2y ago
"Consensus expectations" aren't dollar weighted.
nabla9 2y ago
Revenue 8% above estimate, earnings 15%. The price is not just for one quarter but discounted future quarters. I predict that the price can go up 8 - 10% tomorrow.

MangoCoffee 2y ago

Intel could get lucky like Nvidia if Intel doesn't buy back stock and instead spends money on R&D. edit: "Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger raised a few eyebrows by attributing Nvidia's current dominance of the AI market to luck" - https://www.extremetech.com/computing/nvidia-engineer-responds-to-intel-ceo-saying-it-got-lucky-with-ai-dominance#:~:text=A%20few%20days%20ago%2C%20Intel,be%20where%20Nvidia%20is%20now https://www.extremetech.com/computing/nvidia-engineer-respon....

nabla9 2y ago
Nvidia is fabless. What Intel really needs to do is get competitive with TSMC. Gelsinger started the process instantly when he became the CEO, but it takes time.
- thiago_fm 2y ago
  It takes years to build a new fab. The market has no patience for that. Intel is the cheapest tech company by a huge margin if look at book value. Those fabs are expensive, but even if nobody wants Intel processors anymore, they could even manufacture Ryzen's. The downside is that it takes 3-5 years to make profit on a fab, it's easier to be NVidia in that sense, but I wonder if it's sustainable in the long run.
  - bgnn 2y ago
    no exponential growth is sustainable in the long run
alecco 2y ago
They would need a culture change. Starting with a mostly independent Skunk Works division and a rethink of their software stack. I wouldn't bet on any of that happening.
Havoc 2y ago
Not convinced Intel can turn this around. Both on server and consumer side they've been losing share to AMD for like 7 years straight...cross generations, cross platform...just everywhere with amazing consistency. And if half of the AMD roadmaps/rumours are true then the next couple years will be worse. ...so yeah some casual R&D isn't gonna cut it...they need to pull a rabbit out of a hat urgently.