4 ms·

Tesla is all about self-driving now. And they don't offer that in Europe. As far as I know, there is no self-driving in Europe at all. No Tesla, no Waymo, no

Tesla is all about self-driving now. And they don't offer that in Europe. As far as I know, there is no self-driving in Europe at all. No Tesla, no Waymo, no nothing. Will Europe fall behind with self-driving like it did with the internet? There are a similar number of cars on the road in Europe and the US. About 250 million. I wonder how much they are driven? Maybe one hour per day? That would be 250M*365 = 91B man hours per year. If we value an hour at $20, that is $1.8T per year which can be automated. That is about 10% of the European GDP. Plus many other benefits of self-driving cars, like more public space because fewer cars are needed, and they can park outside the center.

k8sToGo 2y ago
Europe already has self driving to a degree. Mercedes was faster than Tesla.
UncleOxidant 2y ago
Isn't Mercedes ahead of Tesla in self driving tech?
- ripjaygn 2y ago
  It's not. Mercedes just follows the car in front and even that in very limited scenarios. It's just used as an anti-Tesla talking point on the internet, so lots of people believe what you said.
mackman 2y ago
Mercedes launched level 3 autonomous vehicles in Germany a year or two ago I thought? https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a39966189/2022-mercedes-benz-eqs-drive-pilot-drive/ https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a39966189/2022-mercedes...
- ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
  I have seen nothing that indicates that Mercedes stands a chance to catch up with Tesla. All I have seen Mercedes do could have been accomplished by manual programming. But manual programming does not scale. Look at the progress Tesla made from FSD 11 to FSD 12. Nothing indicates that Mercedes is capable of this type of progress.
  - Fischgericht 2y ago
    Yes, now it will no longer kill 40% of school children crossing the road, but only 39%. LOOK AT THE PROGRESS!!!1 And with FSD 34 it will be able to take the easiest highway exit ramp there is on this planet, Mountain View on HWY101, without killing you. And what does "manual programming" even mean? Do you REALLY believe the xbox360-grade hardware in the tesla is doing AI inferencing? It's not. It's a heuristic.
    - jfim 2y ago
      They are doing inferencing on the vehicle for lane keeping, traffic sign detection, emergency braking, etc. The biggest problem is really how do you get to 10^n miles per disengagement, for n>=5. Waymo is kinda getting there, Tesla isn't anywhere near that today. Getting there is really hard, because that's when you get all of the long tail events like bears, moose, wild turkeys, horse mounted police officers, costume conventions, pickup trucks carrying traffic cones and road signs, flooded streets, construction pilot cars, vehicles driving the wrong way on the highway, downed electric poles, NYC steam plumes, and tons of other scenarios. Highway driving in nice and sunny conditions is easy compared to that.
      - Fischgericht 2y ago
        I am not sure how much really is done via inferencing, if at all. Just the way how "Tesla Vision" behaves in a parking garage does simply not look like what I would expect to come out of inferencing. It looks very, very, very much like a pretty bad heuristic. Just look what it makes out of blind spots, the parts the cameras can't see. There is absolutely nothing like "according to my model, there should be X on this spot". The same goes for their distancing sensing in these situations. "Oh, there is a pipe on that wall, which likely has difference distance to me than the wall. I might not wanna crash into that" is trivial on a level that nobody would even use that as a Captcha these days. A model that does not "know" what the third dimension is? Do you know of any reverse engineering that proves that there really is running anything in regards of inferencing on the NPUs? Also, just as you said - there are tons of corner cases in the real world, especially once you aren't on a 10-lane US highway which has been designed for monster trucks driven by 16 year olds (no offence) but one of the roundabouts of hell in Paris. Where would the training data been coming from? So, I have my doubts. During summer, there is a red flower growing near the entrance of my parking garage. It constantly is seen as a red light, and the entrance of my garage is often mistaken for a huge truck suddenly magically appearing. Again: Nobody would use a Captcha these days: "Is this a red flower or a traffic light?". Again, smells like heuristic. "Amount of red pixels in a certain form and spot".
Fischgericht 2y ago
Of course they are selling it in Europe: https://www.tesla.com/de_DE/autopilot https://www.tesla.com/de_DE/autopilot But this feature simply does not exist. It's a myth spread by Tesla fan boys who do not want to admit they got screwed over. To be clear: If I drive a very easy street through my town, which is near a school, my Tesla - just like EVERY Tesla - is able to detect about 90% of trash bins on the side of the road (impressive detection rate), but only about 60% of pupils crossing the road. If I would use Tesla's "full self driving" feature, I would be on average killing about 20 school children EVERY SINGLE MORNING. So, no, it's not that.
- brandonagr2 2y ago
  And yet billions of miles have been driven on FSD, there is no epidemic of mowing down school children, and Tesla is ranked as having the best automatic emergency braking in the industry ( https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2022/09/07/tesla-model-y-gets-highest-safety-score-ever-in-european-test https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2022/09/07/tesla-m... )
  - Fischgericht 2y ago
    "Says Elon." There is absolutely no actual data to verify this claim. How would you know how many "billions" of miles have been driven with "FSD"? Tesla isn't publishing any data. They just have been caught actually hiding crash report data to the NHTSA. "My" anecdotical data is simply watching the amount of trash bins vs kids vs other objects the Tesla I am driving is able to detect. But that is still better linking to an unrelated Forbes article talking about damage done to a car when crashing it into a wall, which does not have anything to do with "FSD" in any car. Actual facts here instead of "Elon says": https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/INCR-EA22002-14496.pdf https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/INCR-EA22002-14496.pdf
jfim 2y ago
Argo AI used to be in that space in Europe, in collaboration with VW commercial vehicles and MOIA, until about a year and a half ago. I believe VW still has a group working on this.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
marcinzm 2y ago
Europeans have already solved this problem without need for non-existent technology. It's called public transportation. That's why Americans spend 101 minutes per day driving on average while Germans spend 36. Imagine how much more GDP the US would have had if they had done that... edit: Of course, Europeans also use that extra time to enjoy life versus driving GDP that due to increasing wealth inequality won't benefit them in any tangible way.
- joshl32532 2y ago
  Just wait 10-20 years when self-driving is the norm, it will reduce congestions caused by human's behavior and accidents.
  - marcinzm 2y ago
    How exactly will it reduce congestion? The cars are the same size. The trips are the same and are likely to go up in frequency with self-driving. The roads are the same as before. If anything you will have a ton more congestion. The vast majority of congestion is due to not enough capacity and too much demand. Right now that is caped due to the time you waste driving but if it's self-driving then the sky is the limit. Public transportation increases the potential commuter density per area of road/rail while self-driving doesn't.
    - warcher 2y ago
      I think self driving and public transport are actually complimentary. The principal benefits of owning your own automobile are convenience, as it’s always available for your use, and range— it will go wherever you want. Enabling vast fleets of on demand taxis is already well underway, making owning your own vehicle less attractive. The next step imho is bundling rides together, making NOT owning your car cheaper still. For urban cores, I would expect shared self driving to crowd out private cars pretty quickly.
  - lm28469 2y ago
    > Just wait 10-20 years Musk said in 2 years, in 2012. Two more weeks brothers, two more weeks ... lol
emptyfile 2y ago
[dead]
fdgjgbdfhgb 2y ago
Mercedes offers it in Germany
Pingk 2y ago
Self-driving in Europe is more problematic in a couple of ways. Firstly the road structure is very different to the US, streets are much narrower and less car-centric so models are harder to train; secondly regulating it is much harder because the EU is a collection of countries, which is very different to a collection of states. Thirdly non-car alternatives like trains and ebikes are a lot more viable due to a higher population density, many big cities (such as Paris) are pushing for better cycling infrastructure rather than better layouts for cars.
thefz 2y ago
> Will Europe fall behind with self-driving like it did with the internet? I beg you pardon?
xela79 2y ago
> As far as I know, there is no self-driving in Europe at all. No Tesla, no Waymo, no nothing. https://etsc.eu/europes-first-cars-with-level-3-automated-driving-go-on-sale-in-germany/#:~:text=The%20Mercedes%2DBenz%20'Drive%20Pilot,system%20for%20use%20in%20Europe https://etsc.eu/europes-first-cars-with-level-3-automated-dr.... /thread
rsynnott 2y ago
> As far as I know, there is no self-driving in Europe at all. Mercedes' "level 3" thing has been around for a couple of years in, at least, Germany. I'm not sure that there's all that much to "fall behind on", though. > If we value an hour at $20, that is $1.8T per year which can be automated. Can it, tho? Like, the last 10 years of promises about self-driving cars would indicate no, at least not any time soon.

k8sToGo 2y ago

Europe already has self driving to a degree. Mercedes was faster than Tesla.

UncleOxidant 2y ago

Isn't Mercedes ahead of Tesla in self driving tech?

ripjaygn 2y ago
It's not. Mercedes just follows the car in front and even that in very limited scenarios. It's just used as an anti-Tesla talking point on the internet, so lots of people believe what you said.

mackman 2y ago

Mercedes launched level 3 autonomous vehicles in Germany a year or two ago I thought? https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a39966189/2022-mercedes-benz-eqs-drive-pilot-drive/ https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a39966189/2022-mercedes...

ArtTimeInvestor 2y ago
I have seen nothing that indicates that Mercedes stands a chance to catch up with Tesla. All I have seen Mercedes do could have been accomplished by manual programming. But manual programming does not scale. Look at the progress Tesla made from FSD 11 to FSD 12. Nothing indicates that Mercedes is capable of this type of progress.
- Fischgericht 2y ago
  Yes, now it will no longer kill 40% of school children crossing the road, but only 39%. LOOK AT THE PROGRESS!!!1 And with FSD 34 it will be able to take the easiest highway exit ramp there is on this planet, Mountain View on HWY101, without killing you. And what does "manual programming" even mean? Do you REALLY believe the xbox360-grade hardware in the tesla is doing AI inferencing? It's not. It's a heuristic.
  - jfim 2y ago
    They are doing inferencing on the vehicle for lane keeping, traffic sign detection, emergency braking, etc. The biggest problem is really how do you get to 10^n miles per disengagement, for n>=5. Waymo is kinda getting there, Tesla isn't anywhere near that today. Getting there is really hard, because that's when you get all of the long tail events like bears, moose, wild turkeys, horse mounted police officers, costume conventions, pickup trucks carrying traffic cones and road signs, flooded streets, construction pilot cars, vehicles driving the wrong way on the highway, downed electric poles, NYC steam plumes, and tons of other scenarios. Highway driving in nice and sunny conditions is easy compared to that.
    - Fischgericht 2y ago
      I am not sure how much really is done via inferencing, if at all. Just the way how "Tesla Vision" behaves in a parking garage does simply not look like what I would expect to come out of inferencing. It looks very, very, very much like a pretty bad heuristic. Just look what it makes out of blind spots, the parts the cameras can't see. There is absolutely nothing like "according to my model, there should be X on this spot". The same goes for their distancing sensing in these situations. "Oh, there is a pipe on that wall, which likely has difference distance to me than the wall. I might not wanna crash into that" is trivial on a level that nobody would even use that as a Captcha these days. A model that does not "know" what the third dimension is? Do you know of any reverse engineering that proves that there really is running anything in regards of inferencing on the NPUs? Also, just as you said - there are tons of corner cases in the real world, especially once you aren't on a 10-lane US highway which has been designed for monster trucks driven by 16 year olds (no offence) but one of the roundabouts of hell in Paris. Where would the training data been coming from? So, I have my doubts. During summer, there is a red flower growing near the entrance of my parking garage. It constantly is seen as a red light, and the entrance of my garage is often mistaken for a huge truck suddenly magically appearing. Again: Nobody would use a Captcha these days: "Is this a red flower or a traffic light?". Again, smells like heuristic. "Amount of red pixels in a certain form and spot".

Fischgericht 2y ago

Of course they are selling it in Europe: https://www.tesla.com/de_DE/autopilot https://www.tesla.com/de_DE/autopilot But this feature simply does not exist. It's a myth spread by Tesla fan boys who do not want to admit they got screwed over. To be clear: If I drive a very easy street through my town, which is near a school, my Tesla - just like EVERY Tesla - is able to detect about 90% of trash bins on the side of the road (impressive detection rate), but only about 60% of pupils crossing the road. If I would use Tesla's "full self driving" feature, I would be on average killing about 20 school children EVERY SINGLE MORNING. So, no, it's not that.

brandonagr2 2y ago
And yet billions of miles have been driven on FSD, there is no epidemic of mowing down school children, and Tesla is ranked as having the best automatic emergency braking in the industry ( https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2022/09/07/tesla-model-y-gets-highest-safety-score-ever-in-european-test https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2022/09/07/tesla-m... )
- Fischgericht 2y ago
  "Says Elon." There is absolutely no actual data to verify this claim. How would you know how many "billions" of miles have been driven with "FSD"? Tesla isn't publishing any data. They just have been caught actually hiding crash report data to the NHTSA. "My" anecdotical data is simply watching the amount of trash bins vs kids vs other objects the Tesla I am driving is able to detect. But that is still better linking to an unrelated Forbes article talking about damage done to a car when crashing it into a wall, which does not have anything to do with "FSD" in any car. Actual facts here instead of "Elon says": https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/INCR-EA22002-14496.pdf https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2022/INCR-EA22002-14496.pdf

jfim 2y ago

Argo AI used to be in that space in Europe, in collaboration with VW commercial vehicles and MOIA, until about a year and a half ago. I believe VW still has a group working on this.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

marcinzm 2y ago

Europeans have already solved this problem without need for non-existent technology. It's called public transportation. That's why Americans spend 101 minutes per day driving on average while Germans spend 36. Imagine how much more GDP the US would have had if they had done that... edit: Of course, Europeans also use that extra time to enjoy life versus driving GDP that due to increasing wealth inequality won't benefit them in any tangible way.

joshl32532 2y ago
Just wait 10-20 years when self-driving is the norm, it will reduce congestions caused by human's behavior and accidents.
- marcinzm 2y ago
  How exactly will it reduce congestion? The cars are the same size. The trips are the same and are likely to go up in frequency with self-driving. The roads are the same as before. If anything you will have a ton more congestion. The vast majority of congestion is due to not enough capacity and too much demand. Right now that is caped due to the time you waste driving but if it's self-driving then the sky is the limit. Public transportation increases the potential commuter density per area of road/rail while self-driving doesn't.
  - warcher 2y ago
    I think self driving and public transport are actually complimentary. The principal benefits of owning your own automobile are convenience, as it’s always available for your use, and range— it will go wherever you want. Enabling vast fleets of on demand taxis is already well underway, making owning your own vehicle less attractive. The next step imho is bundling rides together, making NOT owning your car cheaper still. For urban cores, I would expect shared self driving to crowd out private cars pretty quickly.
- lm28469 2y ago
  > Just wait 10-20 years Musk said in 2 years, in 2012. Two more weeks brothers, two more weeks ... lol

emptyfile 2y ago

[dead]

fdgjgbdfhgb 2y ago

Mercedes offers it in Germany

Pingk 2y ago

Self-driving in Europe is more problematic in a couple of ways. Firstly the road structure is very different to the US, streets are much narrower and less car-centric so models are harder to train; secondly regulating it is much harder because the EU is a collection of countries, which is very different to a collection of states. Thirdly non-car alternatives like trains and ebikes are a lot more viable due to a higher population density, many big cities (such as Paris) are pushing for better cycling infrastructure rather than better layouts for cars.

thefz 2y ago

> Will Europe fall behind with self-driving like it did with the internet? I beg you pardon?

xela79 2y ago

> As far as I know, there is no self-driving in Europe at all. No Tesla, no Waymo, no nothing. https://etsc.eu/europes-first-cars-with-level-3-automated-driving-go-on-sale-in-germany/#:~:text=The%20Mercedes%2DBenz%20'Drive%20Pilot,system%20for%20use%20in%20Europe https://etsc.eu/europes-first-cars-with-level-3-automated-dr.... /thread

rsynnott 2y ago

> As far as I know, there is no self-driving in Europe at all. Mercedes' "level 3" thing has been around for a couple of years in, at least, Germany. I'm not sure that there's all that much to "fall behind on", though. > If we value an hour at $20, that is $1.8T per year which can be automated. Can it, tho? Like, the last 10 years of promises about self-driving cars would indicate no, at least not any time soon.