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The market has saturated probably. I look out of the window and I see Model 3s everywhere. I bought one this year, too.

tinyhouse 2y ago
Are you serious? In Norway maybe. EV has just started in most places. Most people still drive gasoline / hybrid cars. It's just that most car manufactures have EV cars right now and infrastructure is getting better for non-Tesla, so much better deals out there. Tesla doesn't even look good anymore compare to a lot of the new EVs our there from Rivian, Hyndai, Volvo, Honda, Lucid, etc. Tesla keep lowering prices cause they have no other choice.
- dangus 2y ago
  I agree with the comment parent to yours that the market is saturated under the condition that the size and quality of the US charging network doesn’t increase greatly. Only EV early adopters want to sit in Walmart parking lots for half an hour charging. The rest of us want to see mainstream truck stops have chargers that have us in and out in 15 minutes.
  - coldpie 2y ago
    > Only EV early adopters want to sit in Walmart parking lots for half an hour charging. You only need to do that on road trips, which aren't all that frequent for most people. It's not a reason to avoid buying an EV. At home, you just charge it overnight at your wall outlet. Yes, I know, not everyone has access to a wall outlet overnight, but lots of people do. EVs are ready for them right now.
    - atemerev 2y ago
      It is not a good idea to buy a car in most European cities if you only use it for commuting. We have working public transportation for that. So, you buy a car if you want road trips. There are exactly two fast charging networks in Europe: Tesla Superchargers and Ionity. The latter is two times more expensive (yes, you can use Superchargers with other car brands, but it costs more). Which is why I bought a Tesla, and from what I see here in Switzerland, many people share this reasoning. Also, many people in Europe tend to live in _apartments_, where you can’t plug a car overnight. So, access to a fast charging network is essential. Once again, Tesla wins.
    - dangus 2y ago
      Road trips are important. If it’s my only car it needs to be able to do them even if I’m only doing a few of them every year. If you have a family with kids and your other family members are a few hundred miles away the range matters. Nobody’s going to buy four plane tickets and a rental car just to take a 400 mile trip. That sort of trip in an EV is going to be two or three charging stops especially in winter temperatures adding up to close to an extra hour to the travel time. In Europe a trip of that length can be done on a train or a dirt cheap flight and you might not need a car at your destination. Or it won’t happen at all because your family is likely to be physically closer in a smaller country where language and culture borders are closer in.
      - coldpie 2y ago
        > That sort of trip in an EV is going to be two or three charging stops especially in winter temperatures adding up to close to an extra hour to the travel time. Less than one hour of extra travel time, three times a year, doesn't strike me as a dealbreaker. You'll save more time than that every month by never going to a gas station.
dangus 2y ago
I think a big problem with their business model of minimalism and putting everything into the software is that their new models aren’t particularly more compelling than their old ones. Contrast that to what Hyundai/Kia does, they basically blast features at you and ensure that every one of their cars gives you more for your money than competitors.
topspin 2y ago
It's hybrids. I know I'm going to get kicked in the dirt here for saying it. But there is evidence. Yes, the market for pure EV is saturated. It's saturated because appealing hybrid designs have emerged and solve all the problems the rest of the (price sensitive, non-luxury) market cares about, and they're near price parity with pure ICE as well: i.e. cheaper than available EVs (as opposed to whatever Chinese EVs you have in mind.) Plug-in hybrids are a thing now, so if your commute is reasonable you can burn zero gas for most driving, and long drives work the same as ICE: fill up and go. The rest is academic for the mass market. A Prius Prime, for example, gets up to 70 km on a full charge, and charging requires only a common 120V/15A circuit (11h). Soccer mom hauls the neighborhood around town in an eight passenger Chrysler Pacifica, and the kids plug it in when they get home. Cold weather doesn't matter either: the ICE just kicks in earlier and solves that. There is a EIA graph over here[1] that shows (right hand side) what I'm talking about. Sum the hybrid and plug-in hybrid lines and the drop in the EV line is explained. IBD writes on this further here[2]. [1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62063 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62063 [2] https://www.investors.com/news/hybrid-cars-ev-electric-vehicles-ford-gm-tesla-toyota-honda/ https://www.investors.com/news/hybrid-cars-ev-electric-vehic...
lm28469 2y ago
I still see more twingos than teslas in France
- atemerev 2y ago
  France has their own electric cars, and they love them, indeed.

Are you serious? In Norway maybe. EV has just started in most places. Most people still drive gasoline / hybrid cars. It's just that most car manufactures have EV cars right now and infrastructure is getting better for non-Tesla, so much better deals out there. Tesla doesn't even look good anymore compare to a lot of the new EVs our there from Rivian, Hyndai, Volvo, Honda, Lucid, etc. Tesla keep lowering prices cause they have no other choice.

dangus 2y ago
I agree with the comment parent to yours that the market is saturated under the condition that the size and quality of the US charging network doesn’t increase greatly. Only EV early adopters want to sit in Walmart parking lots for half an hour charging. The rest of us want to see mainstream truck stops have chargers that have us in and out in 15 minutes.
- coldpie 2y ago
  > Only EV early adopters want to sit in Walmart parking lots for half an hour charging. You only need to do that on road trips, which aren't all that frequent for most people. It's not a reason to avoid buying an EV. At home, you just charge it overnight at your wall outlet. Yes, I know, not everyone has access to a wall outlet overnight, but lots of people do. EVs are ready for them right now.
  - atemerev 2y ago
    It is not a good idea to buy a car in most European cities if you only use it for commuting. We have working public transportation for that. So, you buy a car if you want road trips. There are exactly two fast charging networks in Europe: Tesla Superchargers and Ionity. The latter is two times more expensive (yes, you can use Superchargers with other car brands, but it costs more). Which is why I bought a Tesla, and from what I see here in Switzerland, many people share this reasoning. Also, many people in Europe tend to live in _apartments_, where you can’t plug a car overnight. So, access to a fast charging network is essential. Once again, Tesla wins.
  - dangus 2y ago
    Road trips are important. If it’s my only car it needs to be able to do them even if I’m only doing a few of them every year. If you have a family with kids and your other family members are a few hundred miles away the range matters. Nobody’s going to buy four plane tickets and a rental car just to take a 400 mile trip. That sort of trip in an EV is going to be two or three charging stops especially in winter temperatures adding up to close to an extra hour to the travel time. In Europe a trip of that length can be done on a train or a dirt cheap flight and you might not need a car at your destination. Or it won’t happen at all because your family is likely to be physically closer in a smaller country where language and culture borders are closer in.
    - coldpie 2y ago
      > That sort of trip in an EV is going to be two or three charging stops especially in winter temperatures adding up to close to an extra hour to the travel time. Less than one hour of extra travel time, three times a year, doesn't strike me as a dealbreaker. You'll save more time than that every month by never going to a gas station.

dangus 2y ago

I think a big problem with their business model of minimalism and putting everything into the software is that their new models aren’t particularly more compelling than their old ones. Contrast that to what Hyundai/Kia does, they basically blast features at you and ensure that every one of their cars gives you more for your money than competitors.

topspin 2y ago

It's hybrids. I know I'm going to get kicked in the dirt here for saying it. But there is evidence. Yes, the market for pure EV is saturated. It's saturated because appealing hybrid designs have emerged and solve all the problems the rest of the (price sensitive, non-luxury) market cares about, and they're near price parity with pure ICE as well: i.e. cheaper than available EVs (as opposed to whatever Chinese EVs you have in mind.) Plug-in hybrids are a thing now, so if your commute is reasonable you can burn zero gas for most driving, and long drives work the same as ICE: fill up and go. The rest is academic for the mass market. A Prius Prime, for example, gets up to 70 km on a full charge, and charging requires only a common 120V/15A circuit (11h). Soccer mom hauls the neighborhood around town in an eight passenger Chrysler Pacifica, and the kids plug it in when they get home. Cold weather doesn't matter either: the ICE just kicks in earlier and solves that. There is a EIA graph over here[1] that shows (right hand side) what I'm talking about. Sum the hybrid and plug-in hybrid lines and the drop in the EV line is explained. IBD writes on this further here[2]. [1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62063 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62063 [2] https://www.investors.com/news/hybrid-cars-ev-electric-vehicles-ford-gm-tesla-toyota-honda/ https://www.investors.com/news/hybrid-cars-ev-electric-vehic...

lm28469 2y ago

I still see more twingos than teslas in France

atemerev 2y ago
France has their own electric cars, and they love them, indeed.