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Are you comparing California power generated to German nameplate capacity? How do they compare apples to apples, or oranges to oranges? Wikipedia says Californ

Are you comparing California power generated to German nameplate capacity? How do they compare apples to apples, or oranges to oranges? Wikipedia says California has 46 GW nameplate capacity and Germany has 81 GW nameplate. Germany produced 53 TWh of solar in 2023 (12% of electricity used) Wikipedia data for California 2023 is incomplete, but it looked to be on track for ~39 TWh in 2023 (same as 2022), and 17% of electricity used.

toomuchtodo 2y ago
Following up, Germany has too much solar, and needs more transmission and storage it appears (or load shifting to daylight hours): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-22/solar-panel-saturation-in-germany-sends-revenues-tumbling https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-22/solar-pan... | https://archive.today/6cDAY https://archive.today/6cDAY https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/49776 https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/49776 "German electricity prices are collapsing during the sunniest hours of the day as the country is flooded with solar power, potentially curbing profitability. The price of power during daylight hours over the past 10 days was €9.1 per megawatt-hour compared to €70.6 during the rest of the day as the number of solar installations continues to increase across the country, SEB AB wrote in a note. This means on sunny days, output can outstrip demand leading to negative prices in the market, with the grid unable to handle so much power and insufficient storage capacity. Although many producers are not directly exposed to the spot prices, these trends bring down revenues overall. Total installed solar capacity soared to more than 80 gigawatts at the end of 2023, according to the bank, 30 gigawatts higher than average demand."
- s1artibartfast 2y ago
  Exactly.
- ZeroGravitas 2y ago
  > Total installed solar capacity soared to more than 80 gigawatts at the end of 2023, according to the bank, 30 gigawatts higher than average demand." Solar only has about a 10% capacity factor in Germany so we can conclude that they don't have enough solar yet and this author has no idea what he is talking about.
toomuchtodo 2y ago
I am lazily comparing total capacity and current daily generation mix trends from ElectricityMaps. The specifics are not so important, the trend and velocity of change is, and those are clear based on the data. (ElectricityMaps is in the business of accurately tracking both generation capacity and generation mix for their carbon intensity data consumers)
- s1artibartfast 2y ago
  in terms of trends, the number seem to indicate that California is far ahead of Germany in terms of solar as a % of generation, and saturating summer daytime production. This is where things get tricky, because you your cost for kwh increases radically for storage, or overbuild capacity that is only useful in the winter.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Accurate, the last part will be the hard part, but we must learn how to.

toomuchtodo 2y ago

Following up, Germany has too much solar, and needs more transmission and storage it appears (or load shifting to daylight hours): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-22/solar-panel-saturation-in-germany-sends-revenues-tumbling https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-22/solar-pan... | https://archive.today/6cDAY https://archive.today/6cDAY https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/49776 https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/49776 "German electricity prices are collapsing during the sunniest hours of the day as the country is flooded with solar power, potentially curbing profitability. The price of power during daylight hours over the past 10 days was €9.1 per megawatt-hour compared to €70.6 during the rest of the day as the number of solar installations continues to increase across the country, SEB AB wrote in a note. This means on sunny days, output can outstrip demand leading to negative prices in the market, with the grid unable to handle so much power and insufficient storage capacity. Although many producers are not directly exposed to the spot prices, these trends bring down revenues overall. Total installed solar capacity soared to more than 80 gigawatts at the end of 2023, according to the bank, 30 gigawatts higher than average demand."

s1artibartfast 2y ago
Exactly.
ZeroGravitas 2y ago
> Total installed solar capacity soared to more than 80 gigawatts at the end of 2023, according to the bank, 30 gigawatts higher than average demand." Solar only has about a 10% capacity factor in Germany so we can conclude that they don't have enough solar yet and this author has no idea what he is talking about.

toomuchtodo 2y ago

I am lazily comparing total capacity and current daily generation mix trends from ElectricityMaps. The specifics are not so important, the trend and velocity of change is, and those are clear based on the data. (ElectricityMaps is in the business of accurately tracking both generation capacity and generation mix for their carbon intensity data consumers)

s1artibartfast 2y ago
in terms of trends, the number seem to indicate that California is far ahead of Germany in terms of solar as a % of generation, and saturating summer daytime production. This is where things get tricky, because you your cost for kwh increases radically for storage, or overbuild capacity that is only useful in the winter.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  Accurate, the last part will be the hard part, but we must learn how to.