3 ms·

> IMO PRC does not want allies. If you look at it realistically, China will never conquer Japan, for example. Whether they are formal "allies" or not, being o

> IMO PRC does not want allies. If you look at it realistically, China will never conquer Japan, for example. Whether they are formal "allies" or not, being on good terms with an important economic partner like Japan and the US is in the best interest of China.

maxglute 2y ago
PRC doesn't need to conquer Japan, it can cripple it same way US did Cuba for going against regional hegemon interest. Remember Operation Starvation in WW2 that crippled JP as a viable country was US bombers based from Chinese mainland. Today is PRC has magnitude more theatre strike fire power to turn Japan into Cuba/Yemen/Gaza than US vs JP in WW2. Ask why aren't US and Cuba allies, because US would rather have Cuba as an example. Why are US and Canada allies, because US kicked British Empire hegemony out of North America for trying to wield British Canada to contain US, so much so that US tried to annex Canada twice. It wasn't until Canada, a fundmentally anti-America project fully made herself subservient to US foreign policy that "good" relations and even alliance is possible. Those are the increasingly likely options options for US partners around PRC, be PRC's Cuba, or PRC's Canada. >Japan and the US is in the best interest of China Why not flip that, why isn't JP and US being on good terms with PRC, with closing military gap, in their best interest? They're the ones contemplating meddling in an ongoing Chinese civil war, one that they've kept frozen for last 70 years. They clearly don't have PRC interests in mind. It's a little absurd to think it's on PRC to make nice on their terms that's premised on violating on PRC sovereignty. The economic reality is JP and US are not "important" trading partners in the sense that PRC isn't trade dependant anymore, PRC exports to entire western bloc is ~10% of GDP. US/JP also relatively low export GDP. The reason WHY war is likely between these powers is because they are some of the least trade dependent large powers, for reference SKR export GDP is 40%, TW is like 60%. PRC/US/JP mutual trade is A LOT in absolute terms due to sheer size of economies, but is still single digit percentage of GDP with ongoing decoupling in strategic sectors. It's not worth concessions on important sovereignty issues.

maxglute 2y ago

PRC doesn't need to conquer Japan, it can cripple it same way US did Cuba for going against regional hegemon interest. Remember Operation Starvation in WW2 that crippled JP as a viable country was US bombers based from Chinese mainland. Today is PRC has magnitude more theatre strike fire power to turn Japan into Cuba/Yemen/Gaza than US vs JP in WW2. Ask why aren't US and Cuba allies, because US would rather have Cuba as an example. Why are US and Canada allies, because US kicked British Empire hegemony out of North America for trying to wield British Canada to contain US, so much so that US tried to annex Canada twice. It wasn't until Canada, a fundmentally anti-America project fully made herself subservient to US foreign policy that "good" relations and even alliance is possible. Those are the increasingly likely options options for US partners around PRC, be PRC's Cuba, or PRC's Canada. >Japan and the US is in the best interest of China Why not flip that, why isn't JP and US being on good terms with PRC, with closing military gap, in their best interest? They're the ones contemplating meddling in an ongoing Chinese civil war, one that they've kept frozen for last 70 years. They clearly don't have PRC interests in mind. It's a little absurd to think it's on PRC to make nice on their terms that's premised on violating on PRC sovereignty. The economic reality is JP and US are not "important" trading partners in the sense that PRC isn't trade dependant anymore, PRC exports to entire western bloc is ~10% of GDP. US/JP also relatively low export GDP. The reason WHY war is likely between these powers is because they are some of the least trade dependent large powers, for reference SKR export GDP is 40%, TW is like 60%. PRC/US/JP mutual trade is A LOT in absolute terms due to sheer size of economies, but is still single digit percentage of GDP with ongoing decoupling in strategic sectors. It's not worth concessions on important sovereignty issues.