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I used to fall for this trap. But now I just calculate my expected return based on a 10% chance of a buyout for $100M or so (cockily I'm assuming I can screen
by varelse 14y ago
I used to fall for this trap.
But now I just calculate my expected return based on a 10% chance of a buyout for $100M or so (cockily I'm assuming I can screen the obvious losers out with common sense alone though that is of course debatable) and if it's not a net uptick from the current gig, I pass on it. And up to now, I've always passed on it, and none of them succeeded.
Other than that, the only startups I'm interested in are ones where I have one of those nifty 3 letter titles and 5% of the company in my pocket.
- scarmig 14y agoHow many have you passed on? Have you tried to characterize how likely it is that your filter is actually good enough that 10% of the companies that pass it are successful? Just seems to me that 10% could be something of an overestimation and needs some validation.
- rhnoble 14y ago10% might be a good rule of thumb if the old adage that "9/10 startups fail" is somewhat accurate. Is $100M the average exit though? Anyone have that data?