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I was afraid that the country would crash China-style in the future and this is confirming my fear.
by realusername 2y ago
I was afraid that the country would crash China-style in the future and this is confirming my fear.
- alephnerd 2y agoI wouldn't go that far yet. There's still 2 more years before the GenSec is chosen in 2026, the Army detests the MPS, and unlike China, Vietnam is actually vulnerable to economic competition within most of ASEAN or India and leadership recognizes that. Then again, a faction of leadership might call it quits and push for a more authoritarian future because they are extremely paranoid about a Color Revolution. But I do think GDP growth will slow to the 4-6% range over the next decade because even though VN's GDP per Capita is relatively high, the VN market is way less developed than Indonesia or Phillipines, let alone Thailand, Malaysia, or China and unlike China in the 1990s it doesn't have a MASSIVE consumer population to justify the headaches (eg. the article above). The average VNese definitely has a lower standard of living than your average Indonesian or Pinoy based on my travels in all 3, and consumer spending is morose (it's comparable to Cambodia and Laos). That said, if To Lam and MPS successfully control the Vietnamese Politburo, it's game over. There's no reason to invest in VN over PH, IND, TH, or IN if the technocrats we had relationships with are all in jail or trying to buy property in OC and leave.