4 ms·

>The 200k number doesn't follow from the tables in. It does. It's the difference in the number of ethnic Russians in Crimea. No doubt some Russians might have

>The 200k number doesn't follow from the tables in. It does. It's the difference in the number of ethnic Russians in Crimea. No doubt some Russians might have left Crimea in that period but I don't see any reason to think it's a significant number. >it depends on official Russian statistics That's why I quoted an article in the Foreign Policy Magazine by a professor of political science at the University of Rhode Island. I don't see in this thread any sources related to your arguments. Let' me repeat that quote: "The extent of what is being contemplated by Ukrainian lawmakers is staggering. According to Tamila Tasheva, Zelensky’s representative in Crimea, if it were liberated tomorrow, at least 200,000 residents of Crimea would face collaboration charges, and another 500,000 to 800,000 residents would face deportation. Refat Chubarov, the chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatars, says that more than 1 million people—more than half the current population—will have to leave “immediately.”"

racional 2y ago
There was no need to repeat the quote. We saw it the first time. I don't see in this thread any sources related to your arguments. The original source of that quote -- which I presumed you knew already, as I am sure you are very careful about these things, and you always drill down back to original sources -- was Tasheva's 2023 interview with Newsweek. In that interview -- which is very easily findable -- she makes it clear that the deportations will be applied "only against non-Ukraine citizens who crossed into the country illegally since the annexation. There will be no mass deportations, but we will tackle the issue on a case-by-case basis." There is also additional language stating that there will be no large-scale draconian punishments for minor collaborators. As she says: "They will be banned from holding government or official roles for a number of years, at least," Tasheva said of Ukrainian officials who will be lustrated. "Many will be held to account, but it won't be millions or even hundreds of thousands. It will be maybe 10,000." That settles the matter, in my view. There is this weird 500k+ number she's dropping -- but this is a completely ancillary matter. And in no way overrides the clearly more important and authoritative statement we have above about the criteria for expulsion. If anything it just means -- she's working from an inflated number. Which suggests to me she's uncritically accepting some number that her subordinates passed on to her, or she misread something. Which means you can say she's sloppy, unprofessional, or whatever. Or she just doesn't have a "feel" for math (you'd be surprised at how many people out there in the "people" space have almost no feeling for estimates of this kind, and simply lack a sense of smell as to whether a number they've been fed is reasonable or not). I can't say, because I'm not her, and I don't speak for her. If you don't like the situation, go write her a hate letter if you want to. But I just don't think that one erroneous number means anything, by itself. And definitely I don't buy argument that it provides some kind of "smoking gun" that proves the Zelenskiy government is planning an organized expulsion of pre-2014 residents, or of persons who engaged in minor forms of collaboration. Let alone that the proposed policies constitute a plan for "ethnic cleansing". Because there's simply no evidence for that view.
- protomolecule 2y ago
  >We saw it the first time. You mean you are speaking on behalf of a team? >which is very easily findable Obviously not easy enough for you to provide the link. What I see so far looks like an attempt at damage control. > don't buy argument that it provides some kind of "smoking gun" that proves the Zelenskiy government is planning an organized expulsion of pre-2014 residents I'll remind you that the pro-Western Ukrainian governments held the water blockade for 8 years causing quite a lot of damage to Crimeans whom it ostensibly considers Ukrainian citizens under Russian occupation. I'll quote the article titled "Ukraine’s water blockade of Crimea should stay, because it’s working" from "EuroMaidan Press"[0]: "72% of the water from the North Crimean Channel was used for the irrigation of crops. And the absence of this water today causes difficulties for food production. ... in the last 50 years, when the irrigation functioned, the peninsula received a new layer of fertile land. However, in the last 5 years, this soil has not been moistened enough and is already degraded." It's worth the reading if you haven't read it the first time I provided the link to it. With this track record it's quite easy to imagine more drastic measures to solve the Crimean problem. It's not a new thing either, here is a leader[1] of the Ukrainian nationalists (infamous UNA-UNSO) saying "Crimea will be Ukrainian or uninhabited" [2]. [0] https://euromaidanpress.com/2020/02/27/ukraines-water-blockade-of-crimea-should-stay-because-its-working/ https://euromaidanpress.com/2020/02/27/ukraines-water-blocka... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmytro_Korchynsky https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmytro_Korchynsky [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6lO0uIU0Po https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6lO0uIU0Po
  - racional 2y ago
    Obviously not easy enough for you to provide the link. I think you know how to find these things on your own if you want to. Korchynsky There's a reason he's not only completely out of the mainstream in Ukrainian politics, but has been under investigation by the MIA and subject to arrest warrants. His positions and songs have nothing to do with government policy. I don't see any sense of balance to your thinking or arguments here. When cornered on factual grounds, you just change subject and try to come up with something even more provocative to distract with. It's boring and pointless, and completely against site guidelines (https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html). So I'm going to have to move on.

racional 2y ago

There was no need to repeat the quote. We saw it the first time. I don't see in this thread any sources related to your arguments. The original source of that quote -- which I presumed you knew already, as I am sure you are very careful about these things, and you always drill down back to original sources -- was Tasheva's 2023 interview with Newsweek. In that interview -- which is very easily findable -- she makes it clear that the deportations will be applied "only against non-Ukraine citizens who crossed into the country illegally since the annexation. There will be no mass deportations, but we will tackle the issue on a case-by-case basis." There is also additional language stating that there will be no large-scale draconian punishments for minor collaborators. As she says: "They will be banned from holding government or official roles for a number of years, at least," Tasheva said of Ukrainian officials who will be lustrated. "Many will be held to account, but it won't be millions or even hundreds of thousands. It will be maybe 10,000." That settles the matter, in my view. There is this weird 500k+ number she's dropping -- but this is a completely ancillary matter. And in no way overrides the clearly more important and authoritative statement we have above about the criteria for expulsion. If anything it just means -- she's working from an inflated number. Which suggests to me she's uncritically accepting some number that her subordinates passed on to her, or she misread something. Which means you can say she's sloppy, unprofessional, or whatever. Or she just doesn't have a "feel" for math (you'd be surprised at how many people out there in the "people" space have almost no feeling for estimates of this kind, and simply lack a sense of smell as to whether a number they've been fed is reasonable or not). I can't say, because I'm not her, and I don't speak for her. If you don't like the situation, go write her a hate letter if you want to. But I just don't think that one erroneous number means anything, by itself. And definitely I don't buy argument that it provides some kind of "smoking gun" that proves the Zelenskiy government is planning an organized expulsion of pre-2014 residents, or of persons who engaged in minor forms of collaboration. Let alone that the proposed policies constitute a plan for "ethnic cleansing". Because there's simply no evidence for that view.

protomolecule 2y ago
>We saw it the first time. You mean you are speaking on behalf of a team? >which is very easily findable Obviously not easy enough for you to provide the link. What I see so far looks like an attempt at damage control. > don't buy argument that it provides some kind of "smoking gun" that proves the Zelenskiy government is planning an organized expulsion of pre-2014 residents I'll remind you that the pro-Western Ukrainian governments held the water blockade for 8 years causing quite a lot of damage to Crimeans whom it ostensibly considers Ukrainian citizens under Russian occupation. I'll quote the article titled "Ukraine’s water blockade of Crimea should stay, because it’s working" from "EuroMaidan Press"[0]: "72% of the water from the North Crimean Channel was used for the irrigation of crops. And the absence of this water today causes difficulties for food production. ... in the last 50 years, when the irrigation functioned, the peninsula received a new layer of fertile land. However, in the last 5 years, this soil has not been moistened enough and is already degraded." It's worth the reading if you haven't read it the first time I provided the link to it. With this track record it's quite easy to imagine more drastic measures to solve the Crimean problem. It's not a new thing either, here is a leader[1] of the Ukrainian nationalists (infamous UNA-UNSO) saying "Crimea will be Ukrainian or uninhabited" [2]. [0] https://euromaidanpress.com/2020/02/27/ukraines-water-blockade-of-crimea-should-stay-because-its-working/ https://euromaidanpress.com/2020/02/27/ukraines-water-blocka... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmytro_Korchynsky https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmytro_Korchynsky [2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6lO0uIU0Po https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6lO0uIU0Po
- racional 2y ago
  Obviously not easy enough for you to provide the link. I think you know how to find these things on your own if you want to. Korchynsky There's a reason he's not only completely out of the mainstream in Ukrainian politics, but has been under investigation by the MIA and subject to arrest warrants. His positions and songs have nothing to do with government policy. I don't see any sense of balance to your thinking or arguments here. When cornered on factual grounds, you just change subject and try to come up with something even more provocative to distract with. It's boring and pointless, and completely against site guidelines (https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html). So I'm going to have to move on.