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The domestic political situation was different. Begin’s grip on power at the time seems like it was tenuous, the economy was in bad shape and the war had escal

The domestic political situation was different. Begin’s grip on power at the time seems like it was tenuous, the economy was in bad shape and the war had escalated out of control. It even seems that Begin wasn’t fully aware of what was going on in Lebanon. Netanyahu has already stated that they’ll continue without US support.

tsimionescu 2y ago
Sure, Netanyahu claims this in front of the cameras, but when the specter of delays in US aid was actually hanging in the air, Israeli officials were painting a very different picture [0]: > Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Yuli Edelstein said that when he was on Capitol Hill last week, he told all of his interlocutors that the aid “is extremely urgent.” > “This is aid for immediate needs, not for something we’ll use in a matter of years,” he emphasized to JI on Thursday. The clear reality is that Israel, while extremely high tech, just doesn't have anywhere near the necessary production of ammunitions and weapons to act in this war without US aid. Especially if the USA and EU countries were to prohibit weapons shipments entirely (as they clearly should for any country currently engaging in a genocide). Even the recent successful defense against the Iranian retaliation required direct US and French assistance, it wasn't possible with Israeli forces and equipment alone. [0] https://jewishinsider.com/2024/02/israel-u-s-military-aid-gaza-hamas-war-lebanon-hezbollah/ https://jewishinsider.com/2024/02/israel-u-s-military-aid-ga...
- tptacek 2y ago
  Israel is currently dependent on external munitions suppliers, which do not necessarily need to include the US. Israel did leverage US assistance to shoot down Iran's drone attack, but it also leveraged Arab state cooperation. It is probably not the case that Israel is existentially dependent on US military aid. It's worth remembering, though, that Israel wants that aid, and also wants the tacit endorsement of the United States, and is acutely aware that one of our two political parties is more committed to Israel's current leadership than the other; read anything they say with a grain of salt.
  - tsimionescu 2y ago
    If the US and EU countries were to cut Israel off, what other options does it have? Russia is already importing various weapons, a good part of them from Iran, who will absolutely cut them off if they start helping Israel. India and Pakistan are not sympathetic to Israel. Arab countries will feel internal pressures if they become major suppliers to Israel. Who is then left? Would China really wade into this conflict, and endanger their own relations with the Arab world?
    - tptacek 2y ago
      Their second largest trading partner is the second largest munitions supplier in the world. Further: the Arab world is not in fact aligned against Israel. They are much more concerned about Iran than they are about Palestine. None of this is going to happen, because everybody involved is aware that Israel would be sustainable after a realignment away from the west. Everything gets worse for everybody (except China) after that occurs, so it won't be allowed to occur. (It's further mooted by the fact that opposition to Israel is largely an Internet phenomenon; Israel enjoys broad, bipartisan popular support in the US, Gaza is at the very bottom of polled issues in order of importance to the electorate, and a very significant chunk (possibly more than half) of people rating Gaza as important support Israel.)
      - tsimionescu 2y ago
        I did not say that the Arab world is united against Israel. However, there is significant anti-Israeli public sentiment everywhere in the Arab world, even more so than against Iran. Even if Arab leaders are not as sensitive to public sentiment as more democratic countries, they can't easily ignore it entirely, and becoming the main supporter of Israel is not a comfortable domestic position for any Arab leader. Also, you are grossly misrepresenting public opinion in the USA and the EU. In the USA there is a significant and extremely vocal minority, especially among the Democratic party base, that deeply care for the genocide in Gaza. This has been visible in the major student protests, and in the significant protest votes in Democratic primaries (>10% undecided in some states!). And given the extremely tight election, this is very likely to cause issues for Biden. Now, whether reversing support for the genocide would cause larger issues is debatable, but I think unlikely - as most of the avid Israel-can-do-no-wrong supporters are not going to vote against Trump anyway. In Europe the situation is even more difficult for the pro-genocide camp, as the population, especially in Western Europe, and doubly especially among the significant Arab, Pakistani, Indian, Turkish, and North African immigrants, is much more sensitive to the issue of colonial genocide.

tsimionescu 2y ago

Sure, Netanyahu claims this in front of the cameras, but when the specter of delays in US aid was actually hanging in the air, Israeli officials were painting a very different picture [0]: > Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Yuli Edelstein said that when he was on Capitol Hill last week, he told all of his interlocutors that the aid “is extremely urgent.” > “This is aid for immediate needs, not for something we’ll use in a matter of years,” he emphasized to JI on Thursday. The clear reality is that Israel, while extremely high tech, just doesn't have anywhere near the necessary production of ammunitions and weapons to act in this war without US aid. Especially if the USA and EU countries were to prohibit weapons shipments entirely (as they clearly should for any country currently engaging in a genocide). Even the recent successful defense against the Iranian retaliation required direct US and French assistance, it wasn't possible with Israeli forces and equipment alone. [0] https://jewishinsider.com/2024/02/israel-u-s-military-aid-gaza-hamas-war-lebanon-hezbollah/ https://jewishinsider.com/2024/02/israel-u-s-military-aid-ga...

tptacek 2y ago
Israel is currently dependent on external munitions suppliers, which do not necessarily need to include the US. Israel did leverage US assistance to shoot down Iran's drone attack, but it also leveraged Arab state cooperation. It is probably not the case that Israel is existentially dependent on US military aid. It's worth remembering, though, that Israel wants that aid, and also wants the tacit endorsement of the United States, and is acutely aware that one of our two political parties is more committed to Israel's current leadership than the other; read anything they say with a grain of salt.
- tsimionescu 2y ago
  If the US and EU countries were to cut Israel off, what other options does it have? Russia is already importing various weapons, a good part of them from Iran, who will absolutely cut them off if they start helping Israel. India and Pakistan are not sympathetic to Israel. Arab countries will feel internal pressures if they become major suppliers to Israel. Who is then left? Would China really wade into this conflict, and endanger their own relations with the Arab world?
  - tptacek 2y ago
    Their second largest trading partner is the second largest munitions supplier in the world. Further: the Arab world is not in fact aligned against Israel. They are much more concerned about Iran than they are about Palestine. None of this is going to happen, because everybody involved is aware that Israel would be sustainable after a realignment away from the west. Everything gets worse for everybody (except China) after that occurs, so it won't be allowed to occur. (It's further mooted by the fact that opposition to Israel is largely an Internet phenomenon; Israel enjoys broad, bipartisan popular support in the US, Gaza is at the very bottom of polled issues in order of importance to the electorate, and a very significant chunk (possibly more than half) of people rating Gaza as important support Israel.)
    - tsimionescu 2y ago
      I did not say that the Arab world is united against Israel. However, there is significant anti-Israeli public sentiment everywhere in the Arab world, even more so than against Iran. Even if Arab leaders are not as sensitive to public sentiment as more democratic countries, they can't easily ignore it entirely, and becoming the main supporter of Israel is not a comfortable domestic position for any Arab leader. Also, you are grossly misrepresenting public opinion in the USA and the EU. In the USA there is a significant and extremely vocal minority, especially among the Democratic party base, that deeply care for the genocide in Gaza. This has been visible in the major student protests, and in the significant protest votes in Democratic primaries (>10% undecided in some states!). And given the extremely tight election, this is very likely to cause issues for Biden. Now, whether reversing support for the genocide would cause larger issues is debatable, but I think unlikely - as most of the avid Israel-can-do-no-wrong supporters are not going to vote against Trump anyway. In Europe the situation is even more difficult for the pro-genocide camp, as the population, especially in Western Europe, and doubly especially among the significant Arab, Pakistani, Indian, Turkish, and North African immigrants, is much more sensitive to the issue of colonial genocide.