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The Chinese will try to copy it eventually but there’s no other entity that can even compete once starship is up and running. The price per kg for LEO is going

The Chinese will try to copy it eventually but there’s no other entity that can even compete once starship is up and running. The price per kg for LEO is going to be orders of magnitude cheaper than conventional rockets. Startups can’t compete and only a government can afford to waste money at that magnitude. In order to compete with starship you need to build a rival starship but it took 25 years and many many mistakes to get to where SpaceX is now and no one can afford that runway.

KennyBlanken 2y ago
The reason NASA's attempt at a modern launch platform has had so many problems is because they were required to base everything off shuttle systems in order to keep congress happy. The shuttle, somewhat infamously, had parts from every single state in the country - which again was done to keep congress happy. It was a giant flying barrel of pork, and so is SLS. Nothing like using fifty year old technology; the SLS is four shuttle engines bolted on to the bottom of the orbiter fuel tank, with orbiter solid rocket boosters...but because there are four engines, and the orbiter tank didn't have four engines worth of thrust under it, they've had to modify everything, and it still doesn't work properly. It doesn't help that NASA has an institutional allergy to actually developing, or even using, new technologies.
maxglute 2y ago
Disposable LM5 looks already price competitive with F9 at $3000/kg. Good indicator PRC commercial space can drive down costs once they figure out reusables at scale. LM9 might rival Starship in 10 years. IMO, SpaceX delivered new capabilities, but it's still delivering them on TBF rookie American scale, rotating through 40 launch vehicles is really not that much. Once PRC figures out renewable then can probably do to space what they're doing to shipbuilding - explode into magnitude more capacity that can eclipse lifetime spaceX tonnages in a few years. Question is if there's enough demand for sending much payload into orbit outside of rolling out and sustaining mega constellations. SpaceX/US is ahead because they can secure developed country customers with more space demand. Worry is when payload to orbit is cheap, and there's no demand, then only thing that's left is using excess delivery to weaponize space.

KennyBlanken 2y ago

The reason NASA's attempt at a modern launch platform has had so many problems is because they were required to base everything off shuttle systems in order to keep congress happy. The shuttle, somewhat infamously, had parts from every single state in the country - which again was done to keep congress happy. It was a giant flying barrel of pork, and so is SLS. Nothing like using fifty year old technology; the SLS is four shuttle engines bolted on to the bottom of the orbiter fuel tank, with orbiter solid rocket boosters...but because there are four engines, and the orbiter tank didn't have four engines worth of thrust under it, they've had to modify everything, and it still doesn't work properly. It doesn't help that NASA has an institutional allergy to actually developing, or even using, new technologies.

maxglute 2y ago

Disposable LM5 looks already price competitive with F9 at $3000/kg. Good indicator PRC commercial space can drive down costs once they figure out reusables at scale. LM9 might rival Starship in 10 years. IMO, SpaceX delivered new capabilities, but it's still delivering them on TBF rookie American scale, rotating through 40 launch vehicles is really not that much. Once PRC figures out renewable then can probably do to space what they're doing to shipbuilding - explode into magnitude more capacity that can eclipse lifetime spaceX tonnages in a few years. Question is if there's enough demand for sending much payload into orbit outside of rolling out and sustaining mega constellations. SpaceX/US is ahead because they can secure developed country customers with more space demand. Worry is when payload to orbit is cheap, and there's no demand, then only thing that's left is using excess delivery to weaponize space.