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If Starship starts to work as advertised, everybody else except maybe Blue Origin (if New Glenn also works as advertised...) will be out of the business. The g
by lupusreal 2y ago
If Starship starts to work as advertised, everybody else except maybe Blue Origin (if New Glenn also works as advertised...) will be out of the business.
The government backed organizations will continue as well, but commercial launch providers will need to find billions of dollars to build competing platforms without being able to start small and build their way up like SpaceX did because small boosters will no longer be economically viable. Blue Origin might be able to pull it off since their backer has very deep pockets, but their track record so far is dogshit so I'm not betting on them.
- jagger27 2y ago> The government backed organizations will continue as well Including SpaceX.
- lupusreal 2y agoI'm talking about Arianespace/etc, SpaceX won't need the government to keep them from being pushed out of the business by themselves. ULA might be put onto life support just so the US government has a fallback. Alternatively, a forced ULA/Blue Origin merger could be viable. I suppose you probably mean that SpaceX owes their success to government contracts, but the point I'm making is that nobody but SpaceX will be able to win contracts except through acts of charity motivated by national security. France and the EU will continue buying rockets from Arianespace even though those launches will cost orders of magnitude more, simply because they don't want to lose their domestic capabilities.