5 ms·

It could be up in the air. For perspective, I'm with Israel. Though, I'm for saving as many Palestinian lives as humanly possible. Which should be all of them,

It could be up in the air. For perspective, I'm with Israel. Though, I'm for saving as many Palestinian lives as humanly possible. Which should be all of them, should the clerics and State Actors stop abusing them via radicalization and the Islamic World works with Israel toward offering appropriate options. But what I'm speaking about, in terms of prediction, isn't the way that the wind blows. What I'm speaking about is high level State intention. No one today can seriously believe that State political orientation is a grassroots effect. The reality is that, with the exception of extremely unstable States that are de facto puppets of other Nations, the broad political orientation of modern States is an effect of the allowable movements, opinions, revolutions, propaganda, and migrations that are facilitated by the agencies over decades. Ergo, the eventual orientation of any State toward or away from Israel has to be assumed to be in that State's geopolitical interest as dictated at the highest level. As we can easily observe, if there was an event and the resultant popular effect was not in the State's interest than, no matter what, the event would be minimized into oblivion by State Press. Conversely, the Press will manufacture events out of virtual non-events if that assists the State's interest. Only the State or God will determine whether or not it supports Israel, in any future. That's my starting point for prediction.

sebzim4500 2y ago
>Only the State or God will determine whether or not it supports Israel Seems like in most cases the state is more pro-israel than the population. And God killed that Turkish guy so apparently he's pro-Israel too.
- mrangle 2y ago
  >Seems like in most cases the state is more pro-israel than the population. In some cases. But like I said, Western Nations are now factional at a high level (in my observation, and whether or not this is an intentional result - in my view, it might be). And the short to medium term may not predict the long term. What is also possible is that what the State says, in any period, may not predict its long-term strategy.
- ars 2y ago
  > Seems like in most cases the state is more pro-israel than the population. Not really. Go check the results of the popular vote for Eurovision. Israel came in second. There's a huge quiet population that is pro-Israel. They don't make noise with protests though, so some people don't realize they exist.
  - jltsiren 2y ago
    If there are 25 candidates, how many votes do you need to come in second? And how many supporters do you need for those votes, when it's pay-to-vote and everyone can vote as many times as they want? The fact that Israel didn't win the popular vote suggests that the support for them is not particularly strong in Europe.
    - ars 2y ago
      > The fact that Israel didn't win the popular vote suggests that the support for them is not particularly strong in Europe. They came in second place. How is that "not particularly strong"? And the difference between the popular vote and the jury vote was especially dramatic for Israel. No one expected anything else though......
      - jltsiren 2y ago
        You don't need much support to win when everyone else's votes are split between 24 candidates. And there is already a precedent for strong popular support. In 2022, Ukraine won the popular vote with 439 points, with 239 points for the next country. This year, Israel lost with 323 points vs. 337 points for the winner. Ukraine, which came in third, also got pretty close with 307 points. Similar forms of activism, such as petitions and protests, are supposed to demonstrate support for something, but they often end up showing the opposite. Because the absolute number of supporters rarely matters. What's more important is the number of supporters as a fraction of the total, or relative to the expectations. Once upon a time, I was involved in something controversial. There was a petition opposing us, with a very large number of signatures for that context. But the petition ended up strengthening our case, because it showed that the opposition to our plans was no more widespread than what we had assumed. The next elections proved us correct. A large number of people with a particular opinion didn't matter, because they were a small enough fraction of the total.

sebzim4500 2y ago

>Only the State or God will determine whether or not it supports Israel Seems like in most cases the state is more pro-israel than the population. And God killed that Turkish guy so apparently he's pro-Israel too.

mrangle 2y ago
>Seems like in most cases the state is more pro-israel than the population. In some cases. But like I said, Western Nations are now factional at a high level (in my observation, and whether or not this is an intentional result - in my view, it might be). And the short to medium term may not predict the long term. What is also possible is that what the State says, in any period, may not predict its long-term strategy.
ars 2y ago
> Seems like in most cases the state is more pro-israel than the population. Not really. Go check the results of the popular vote for Eurovision. Israel came in second. There's a huge quiet population that is pro-Israel. They don't make noise with protests though, so some people don't realize they exist.
- jltsiren 2y ago
  If there are 25 candidates, how many votes do you need to come in second? And how many supporters do you need for those votes, when it's pay-to-vote and everyone can vote as many times as they want? The fact that Israel didn't win the popular vote suggests that the support for them is not particularly strong in Europe.
  - ars 2y ago
    > The fact that Israel didn't win the popular vote suggests that the support for them is not particularly strong in Europe. They came in second place. How is that "not particularly strong"? And the difference between the popular vote and the jury vote was especially dramatic for Israel. No one expected anything else though......
    - jltsiren 2y ago
      You don't need much support to win when everyone else's votes are split between 24 candidates. And there is already a precedent for strong popular support. In 2022, Ukraine won the popular vote with 439 points, with 239 points for the next country. This year, Israel lost with 323 points vs. 337 points for the winner. Ukraine, which came in third, also got pretty close with 307 points. Similar forms of activism, such as petitions and protests, are supposed to demonstrate support for something, but they often end up showing the opposite. Because the absolute number of supporters rarely matters. What's more important is the number of supporters as a fraction of the total, or relative to the expectations. Once upon a time, I was involved in something controversial. There was a petition opposing us, with a very large number of signatures for that context. But the petition ended up strengthening our case, because it showed that the opposition to our plans was no more widespread than what we had assumed. The next elections proved us correct. A large number of people with a particular opinion didn't matter, because they were a small enough fraction of the total.