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> to not kill 35 thousand civilians in the process. The current best estimates are for 15 to 20 thousand civilians. When you write 35 thousand you are showing

by ars 2y ago

> to not kill 35 thousand civilians in the process. The current best estimates are for 15 to 20 thousand civilians. When you write 35 thousand you are showing you believe Hamas propaganda.

Hikikomori 2y ago
You're correct, they only killed maybe 10000 children instead of 20000. I guess the bar is at like 15000 children? If Israel goes above that then they are bad, until the goalpost is moved again.
input_sh 2y ago
Does that make it any better!? That's still comparable to a small town or a large arena completely wiped away from the face of the earth. Not because they were Hamas, but because they were near Hamas.
- tptacek 2y ago
  Reasonable people will point out that this "near Hamas" thing is the result of a deliberate strategy by Hamas to ensure that reprisal strikes preferentially spill the blood of the civilians Hamas ostensibly represents, while shielding and supplying the Hamas combatants who provoked the strikes in the first place. To me, the more powerful argument is just that any meaningful military purpose to massed attacks in Gaza have now been used up; much of Hamas' infrastructure, along with the majority of their leadership cadre, have been destroyed. Hamas still "exists", and it could re-form, but so could any other militant organization at this point. The losses Hamas have taken probably exceed those of other state military actors who have decisively lost wars in the past. Further large-scale strikes look increasingly performative. It was hard to justify a lot of what Israel did even when Hamas had 15 combat-ready brigades and was vowing to repeat October 7th. It seems impossible to justify it now. (People definitely disagree with me on this point! It's what I believe but fuck if I know with any certainty how true it is.)
  - ars 2y ago
    > Further large-scale strikes look increasingly performative. Israel is not doing large scale strikes in most of Gaza, except Raffa. It was in the news a few weeks ago that Israel withdrew most of their troops from Gaza. They have in fact switched to limited strikes. But they're going to finish the job in Raffa first, in particular they want to destroy tunnels - especially tunnels going into Egypt. After that the PA is going to try to take over. And Israel will "protest" the whole time like the Br'er Rabbit. The PA can't look like Israel helped them take the area. Both the PA and Israel want the PA in Gaza, but neither can say it out loud. The whole "Israel has no day after plan" thing is just a show. There's a reason Biden stopped complaining about it.
    - runarberg 2y ago
      > Israeli bombardment from the air, land, and sea continues to be reported across much of the Gaza Strip, resulting in further civilian casualties, displacement, and destruction of houses and other civilian infrastructure. Ground incursions and heavy fighting also continue to be reported, especially in Jabalya and eastern Rafah. > The following are among the deadliest incidents reported between 16 and 19 May: > - On 16 May, at about 14:50, four Palestinians, including a pregnant woman and her unborn baby, were reportedly killed when a house was hit in Jabalya Refugee Camp. > - On 17 May, at about 0:55, six Palestinians were reportedly killed when a house was hit on Al Falouja Street in Jabalya. > - On 18 May, at about 10:00, 15 Palestinians were reportedly killed and others injured while trying to return to their homes in areas of Jabaliya Refugee Camp from which Israeli forces withdrew. > - On 18 May, at about 12:30, 28 Palestinians, including ten women and ten children, were reportedly killed and others injured when a residential square was hit in Mashrou’ Beit Lahiya near Kamal Adwan Hospital, in North Gaza. > - On 18 May, at about 11:00, 12 Palestinians were reportedly killed and others injured when Iqra’ Library was hit in central Jabalya Refugee Camp. > - On 18 May, at about 14:00, four Palestinian men were reportedly killed and others injured when a house was hit in Khuza'a area, in Khan Younis. > - On 19 May, at about 1:00, 31 Palestinians were reportedly killed and others injured when a house was hit in the New Camp of An Nuseirat, in Deir al Balah. The bombardment is in fact escalating all over the Gaza strip. There may have been more limited strikes in March and April, but the Rafah offensive started, we can no longer claim so. Israel is doing large scale strikes in most of Gaza, including Rafah. https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-flash-update-168 https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-i...
- ars 2y ago
  Yes, it makes it better. This is a war, I assume you are too young to have experienced any others, but this what war is like. It sucks for everyone, and innocents die. There isn't any other way to exterminate Hamas which is a goal that helps everyone, including Palestinians.
  - runarberg 2y ago
    Indigenous resistance has been used as an excuse for their extermination since 1492. When Israeli leadership says they want Palestinians out of Gaza, we should believe them. The behavior of stripping Palestinians from their land has been consistent since 1947, and has only been escalating in the past decade. For all we know, the Israeli leadership has been waiting for the excuse to conduct these atrocities for a long time. Israel does not have the right to exterminate Hamas by any means necessary. If Israel is unable to do so without mass atrocities, they simply shouldn’t. There are alternatives to war. The IRA was not eliminated by mass starvation in Northern Ireland. Rather they were given a Political avenue for their fight, and so their tactics changed from terrorism to political advocacy.
    - ars 2y ago
      > When Israeli leadership says they want Palestinians out of Gaza They don't say that. Your entire premise is based on some random quotes from an individual? > Israel does not have the right to exterminate Hamas by any means necessary. Actually, yes they do. And you forget that Palestinians have no interest in any other avenue, so your suggestion isn't possible anyway.
      - Qem 2y ago
        > Your entire premise is based on some random quotes from an individual? Among genocide and ethnic cleansing peddling, over 500: https://law4palestine.org/law-for-palestine-releases-database-with-500-instances-of-israeli-incitement-to-genocide-continuously-updated/ https://law4palestine.org/law-for-palestine-releases-databas...
        2y ago
runarberg 2y ago
Those are not the current best estimates. I think you are referring here to last week’s news about OCHA revising their figures and now only reporting half of previous figures. If so than you are talking about 24,686 confirmed dead and fully identified victims of the Israeli military as of April 30th 2024. Of which 14,600 are women, children, or the elderly. The 35,000+ figure is actually 35,562 confirmed dead as of May 20th 2024 (including 10,876 confirmed dead and not yet identified). Yet not included is the 10,000+ believed dead who are missing e.g. under the rubble or in undiscovered mass graves, or unreported burials, etc. This makes the believed total number of victims killed by Israeli aggression in Gaza around 45,000 of which we know 14,000 are woman, children and the elderly. 35,000 civilians is not an unreasonable estimate. I would personally put a lower bound at 60% of 35,000 = 21,000 civilians, which is the assuming every adult man is a combatant (which we know is not true; there are plenty of civilian adult men among the victims) and extrapolating the percentage of fully identified victims to the confirmed death count. https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day-227 https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-i...
- tptacek 2y ago
  Seems reasonable and worth adding that we've long since blown past any point where the numbers would be tolerable. About the best you can say for Israel is that they're in an extraordinarily bad position (one in part of their own making!) where their only moves involve modern dense urban combat, the worst possible thing.
  - ars 2y ago
    > we've long since blown past any point where the numbers would be tolerable. You seem to be doing a good job of trying to understand both sides, so I think it would behoove you compare these casualty rates with other urban wars. > extraordinarily bad position (one in part of their own making What other options did they have?
    - runarberg 2y ago
      > What other options did they have? This attitude reminds me of the Start Trek: Voyager episode Equinox where Captain Janeway insists that Captain Ransom “leaves her no choice” than to go after the Equinox no matter the cost. Janeway was wrong, there were other options, and the cost she was willing to pay was too high. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=398qbnkaP8Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=398qbnkaP8Y

by ars 2y ago

> to not kill 35 thousand civilians in the process. The current best estimates are for 15 to 20 thousand civilians. When you write 35 thousand you are showing you believe Hamas propaganda.

Hikikomori 2y ago

You're correct, they only killed maybe 10000 children instead of 20000. I guess the bar is at like 15000 children? If Israel goes above that then they are bad, until the goalpost is moved again.

input_sh 2y ago

Does that make it any better!? That's still comparable to a small town or a large arena completely wiped away from the face of the earth. Not because they were Hamas, but because they were near Hamas.

tptacek 2y ago
Reasonable people will point out that this "near Hamas" thing is the result of a deliberate strategy by Hamas to ensure that reprisal strikes preferentially spill the blood of the civilians Hamas ostensibly represents, while shielding and supplying the Hamas combatants who provoked the strikes in the first place. To me, the more powerful argument is just that any meaningful military purpose to massed attacks in Gaza have now been used up; much of Hamas' infrastructure, along with the majority of their leadership cadre, have been destroyed. Hamas still "exists", and it could re-form, but so could any other militant organization at this point. The losses Hamas have taken probably exceed those of other state military actors who have decisively lost wars in the past. Further large-scale strikes look increasingly performative. It was hard to justify a lot of what Israel did even when Hamas had 15 combat-ready brigades and was vowing to repeat October 7th. It seems impossible to justify it now. (People definitely disagree with me on this point! It's what I believe but fuck if I know with any certainty how true it is.)
- ars 2y ago
  > Further large-scale strikes look increasingly performative. Israel is not doing large scale strikes in most of Gaza, except Raffa. It was in the news a few weeks ago that Israel withdrew most of their troops from Gaza. They have in fact switched to limited strikes. But they're going to finish the job in Raffa first, in particular they want to destroy tunnels - especially tunnels going into Egypt. After that the PA is going to try to take over. And Israel will "protest" the whole time like the Br'er Rabbit. The PA can't look like Israel helped them take the area. Both the PA and Israel want the PA in Gaza, but neither can say it out loud. The whole "Israel has no day after plan" thing is just a show. There's a reason Biden stopped complaining about it.
  - runarberg 2y ago
    > Israeli bombardment from the air, land, and sea continues to be reported across much of the Gaza Strip, resulting in further civilian casualties, displacement, and destruction of houses and other civilian infrastructure. Ground incursions and heavy fighting also continue to be reported, especially in Jabalya and eastern Rafah. > The following are among the deadliest incidents reported between 16 and 19 May: > - On 16 May, at about 14:50, four Palestinians, including a pregnant woman and her unborn baby, were reportedly killed when a house was hit in Jabalya Refugee Camp. > - On 17 May, at about 0:55, six Palestinians were reportedly killed when a house was hit on Al Falouja Street in Jabalya. > - On 18 May, at about 10:00, 15 Palestinians were reportedly killed and others injured while trying to return to their homes in areas of Jabaliya Refugee Camp from which Israeli forces withdrew. > - On 18 May, at about 12:30, 28 Palestinians, including ten women and ten children, were reportedly killed and others injured when a residential square was hit in Mashrou’ Beit Lahiya near Kamal Adwan Hospital, in North Gaza. > - On 18 May, at about 11:00, 12 Palestinians were reportedly killed and others injured when Iqra’ Library was hit in central Jabalya Refugee Camp. > - On 18 May, at about 14:00, four Palestinian men were reportedly killed and others injured when a house was hit in Khuza'a area, in Khan Younis. > - On 19 May, at about 1:00, 31 Palestinians were reportedly killed and others injured when a house was hit in the New Camp of An Nuseirat, in Deir al Balah. The bombardment is in fact escalating all over the Gaza strip. There may have been more limited strikes in March and April, but the Rafah offensive started, we can no longer claim so. Israel is doing large scale strikes in most of Gaza, including Rafah. https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-flash-update-168 https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-i...
ars 2y ago
Yes, it makes it better. This is a war, I assume you are too young to have experienced any others, but this what war is like. It sucks for everyone, and innocents die. There isn't any other way to exterminate Hamas which is a goal that helps everyone, including Palestinians.
- runarberg 2y ago
  Indigenous resistance has been used as an excuse for their extermination since 1492. When Israeli leadership says they want Palestinians out of Gaza, we should believe them. The behavior of stripping Palestinians from their land has been consistent since 1947, and has only been escalating in the past decade. For all we know, the Israeli leadership has been waiting for the excuse to conduct these atrocities for a long time. Israel does not have the right to exterminate Hamas by any means necessary. If Israel is unable to do so without mass atrocities, they simply shouldn’t. There are alternatives to war. The IRA was not eliminated by mass starvation in Northern Ireland. Rather they were given a Political avenue for their fight, and so their tactics changed from terrorism to political advocacy.
  - ars 2y ago
    > When Israeli leadership says they want Palestinians out of Gaza They don't say that. Your entire premise is based on some random quotes from an individual? > Israel does not have the right to exterminate Hamas by any means necessary. Actually, yes they do. And you forget that Palestinians have no interest in any other avenue, so your suggestion isn't possible anyway.
    - Qem 2y ago
      > Your entire premise is based on some random quotes from an individual? Among genocide and ethnic cleansing peddling, over 500: https://law4palestine.org/law-for-palestine-releases-database-with-500-instances-of-israeli-incitement-to-genocide-continuously-updated/ https://law4palestine.org/law-for-palestine-releases-databas...
      - 2y ago

runarberg 2y ago

Those are not the current best estimates. I think you are referring here to last week’s news about OCHA revising their figures and now only reporting half of previous figures. If so than you are talking about 24,686 confirmed dead and fully identified victims of the Israeli military as of April 30th 2024. Of which 14,600 are women, children, or the elderly. The 35,000+ figure is actually 35,562 confirmed dead as of May 20th 2024 (including 10,876 confirmed dead and not yet identified). Yet not included is the 10,000+ believed dead who are missing e.g. under the rubble or in undiscovered mass graves, or unreported burials, etc. This makes the believed total number of victims killed by Israeli aggression in Gaza around 45,000 of which we know 14,000 are woman, children and the elderly. 35,000 civilians is not an unreasonable estimate. I would personally put a lower bound at 60% of 35,000 = 21,000 civilians, which is the assuming every adult man is a combatant (which we know is not true; there are plenty of civilian adult men among the victims) and extrapolating the percentage of fully identified victims to the confirmed death count. https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-israel-reported-impact-day-227 https://www.ochaopt.org/content/hostilities-gaza-strip-and-i...

tptacek 2y ago
Seems reasonable and worth adding that we've long since blown past any point where the numbers would be tolerable. About the best you can say for Israel is that they're in an extraordinarily bad position (one in part of their own making!) where their only moves involve modern dense urban combat, the worst possible thing.
- ars 2y ago
  > we've long since blown past any point where the numbers would be tolerable. You seem to be doing a good job of trying to understand both sides, so I think it would behoove you compare these casualty rates with other urban wars. > extraordinarily bad position (one in part of their own making What other options did they have?
  - runarberg 2y ago
    > What other options did they have? This attitude reminds me of the Start Trek: Voyager episode Equinox where Captain Janeway insists that Captain Ransom “leaves her no choice” than to go after the Equinox no matter the cost. Janeway was wrong, there were other options, and the cost she was willing to pay was too high. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=398qbnkaP8Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=398qbnkaP8Y