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It seems more likely than not that the ICC will approve the warrants. This is unprecedented for the ICC to turn its gaze toards a key US ally. As for how far w

by jmyeet 2y ago

It seems more likely than not that the ICC will approve the warrants. This is unprecedented for the ICC to turn its gaze toards a key US ally. As for how far will the US go, well in 2002, Congress passed (and Bush signed) the American Service Members Protection Act, more colloquially known as the Hage Invasion Act. It authorizes the president to use all necessary force including invading the Netherlands if an American servicemember or appointed official is ever taken into ICC custody. This includes officials and servicemen of key allies, including Israel. So will Betanyahu or Gallant actually be arrested? Almost certainly not. The practical effect of this is political not legal. The goal of protests, boycotting, ICJ applications, ICC warrants, UN (GA and SC) motions, "Undecided" voting in Democratic primaries and so on are to incrementally pressure the two key players here: Israel and, more importantly, the US. Why? Because the US could end the conflict with a phone call. They could end it with a press release. BDS (Boycott, divest, sanction) movements were considered successful in isolating and ultimately toppling the Apartheid South African regime in the 1970s and 1980s. Given this success, an awful lot of lobbying has been directed at US politicans to pass so-called "anti-BDS" laws that are laws in ~37 states. For example, to be a teacher in Texas, you need to sign a contract agreeing to never participate in a BDS movement against Israel. So the practical effect of ICC warrants is just to incrementally isolate and pressure Israel.

outside1234 2y ago
How can the US end the conflict with a phone call? I think that is unlikely because I suspect those phone calls have already been had. And really the only way we are resolving this is by actually solving the underlying issue, which is that there are a set of people essentially locked up in a prison for 30 years and/or slowly being shot by settlers in the West Bank.
- jmyeet 2y ago
  Press release: "We're halting all arms shipments to Israel". There's even a legal basis for it, the so-called "Leahy laws" [1]. Israel cannot exist without hte largesse and political cover the United States provides. I agree about solving the underlying issues and the injustices that have historically taken place but the above is intended to answer the question and engage in analysis rather than arguing the merits, which is likely an unproductive conversation. [1]: https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/PP410_INVEST_v2.1.pdf https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/PP410_INVES...
  - ars 2y ago
    Israel hardly needs those arms to continue their war in Gaza. It's nice, certainly, and the precision weapons help reduce Palestinian deaths, but Israel does not require it. You also forget that Israel has fought all its major wars without the US.
    - lysp 2y ago
      They also get $3.8 billion in military aid from the US each year.
      - ronjobber 2y ago
        And Israel's GDP is ~500billion, of which ~25b is spent on defense. So, that 3.8b would be a dent, but not insurmountable. Economic measures could be a different story, but pulling that lever on an an ally of 75+ years would damage the US's credibility. Not to mention to the domestic impact in the US. I don't think any decision makers weighing national interest would go there. Plus, if the US successfully isolated Israel, it's highly likely the whole region would be at war in short time. Hard to imagine the West not getting involved again at that point, except now in a significantly worse position.
    - r00fus 2y ago
      The issue is not the genocide in Gaza. The issue is restocking iron Dome, and the ability for Israel to defend against attacks from Hezbollah and Iran… assuming other powers don’t change their stance towards Israel.
      - jbenjoseph 2y ago
        The lack of working Iron Dome would mean that Israel would have to go on a big offensive. The lack of US aid will elevate Israel's war posture, not decrease it. People seem to keep forgetting this is an existential war for Israel, there is no clear end goal for Israel's enemies besides its destruction. Of course Israel will never "give up", give up what? Its existence?
ngcc_hk 2y ago
One phone call to whom? Hamas? The conflict is 2 sided. It may pause. But not end. This is very different from Russia invade Ukraine, there is no dispute of the sovereignty in a wider sense. Even china would not say U belong to R. But the hell of P and I, … There is no easy solution … from camp David to now.
- doctorpangloss 2y ago
  > There is no easy solution … from camp David to now. Everyone from the Hague to UC Berkeley administrators is learning one hard truth: agreements with some polities in that part of the world and their ambassadors are not worth very much. But if you pretend that they are then it seems like there are easy solutions.
- jmyeet 2y ago
  > One phone call to whom? Hamas? To Israel. The modern state of Israel simply cannot exist without the largesse and political cover the US provides. > There is no easy solution Yes and no. End the genocide. End the apartheid. Nuremberg-like trials to deal with war criminals on both sides. Reconstruction of a single state. 750,000 settlers has made a two-state solution impossible. We've been here before: post-US civil war and post-apartheid South Africa. There is the idea that the currently oppressed population will rise up in vilence against their former oppressors. History doesn't back up this view. Our modern examples such as Reconstruction showed the opposite: the rise of the KKK and the rise of violence against former slaves by their former oppressors. Afghanistan has been described as the graveyard of empires. This region may be vying for that title.
  - dbdoskey 2y ago
    Israel existed for decades without US support. No Jews will agree to live under a Muslim majority one state solution, it will inevitably decay into something similar to Lebanon, Syria, or Egypt.
    - murderfs 2y ago
      > No Jews will agree to live under a Muslim majority one state solution Couldn't you say the same about whites in apartheid South Africa?
nebula8804 2y ago
>Given this success, an awful lot of lobbying has been directed at US politicans to pass so-called "anti-BDS" laws that are laws in ~37 states. For example, to be a teacher in Texas, you need to sign a contract agreeing to never participate in a BDS movement against Israel. These are unconstitutional laws that unfortunately are easy to pass but difficult to remove. There needs to be more legal challenges to remove these laws. There have been positive efforts to remove these laws although the states find new ways to keep amended versions of the laws on the books which requires further lawsuits to challenge. [1]:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-BDS_laws#Constitutional_challenges https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-BDS_laws#Constitutional_c...

by jmyeet 2y ago

outside1234 2y ago

How can the US end the conflict with a phone call? I think that is unlikely because I suspect those phone calls have already been had. And really the only way we are resolving this is by actually solving the underlying issue, which is that there are a set of people essentially locked up in a prison for 30 years and/or slowly being shot by settlers in the West Bank.

jmyeet 2y ago
Press release: "We're halting all arms shipments to Israel". There's even a legal basis for it, the so-called "Leahy laws" [1]. Israel cannot exist without hte largesse and political cover the United States provides. I agree about solving the underlying issues and the injustices that have historically taken place but the above is intended to answer the question and engage in analysis rather than arguing the merits, which is likely an unproductive conversation. [1]: https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/PP410_INVEST_v2.1.pdf https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/PP410_INVES...
- ars 2y ago
  Israel hardly needs those arms to continue their war in Gaza. It's nice, certainly, and the precision weapons help reduce Palestinian deaths, but Israel does not require it. You also forget that Israel has fought all its major wars without the US.
  - lysp 2y ago
    They also get $3.8 billion in military aid from the US each year.
    - ronjobber 2y ago
      And Israel's GDP is ~500billion, of which ~25b is spent on defense. So, that 3.8b would be a dent, but not insurmountable. Economic measures could be a different story, but pulling that lever on an an ally of 75+ years would damage the US's credibility. Not to mention to the domestic impact in the US. I don't think any decision makers weighing national interest would go there. Plus, if the US successfully isolated Israel, it's highly likely the whole region would be at war in short time. Hard to imagine the West not getting involved again at that point, except now in a significantly worse position.
  - r00fus 2y ago
    The issue is not the genocide in Gaza. The issue is restocking iron Dome, and the ability for Israel to defend against attacks from Hezbollah and Iran… assuming other powers don’t change their stance towards Israel.
    - jbenjoseph 2y ago
      The lack of working Iron Dome would mean that Israel would have to go on a big offensive. The lack of US aid will elevate Israel's war posture, not decrease it. People seem to keep forgetting this is an existential war for Israel, there is no clear end goal for Israel's enemies besides its destruction. Of course Israel will never "give up", give up what? Its existence?

ngcc_hk 2y ago

One phone call to whom? Hamas? The conflict is 2 sided. It may pause. But not end. This is very different from Russia invade Ukraine, there is no dispute of the sovereignty in a wider sense. Even china would not say U belong to R. But the hell of P and I, … There is no easy solution … from camp David to now.

doctorpangloss 2y ago
> There is no easy solution … from camp David to now. Everyone from the Hague to UC Berkeley administrators is learning one hard truth: agreements with some polities in that part of the world and their ambassadors are not worth very much. But if you pretend that they are then it seems like there are easy solutions.
jmyeet 2y ago
> One phone call to whom? Hamas? To Israel. The modern state of Israel simply cannot exist without the largesse and political cover the US provides. > There is no easy solution Yes and no. End the genocide. End the apartheid. Nuremberg-like trials to deal with war criminals on both sides. Reconstruction of a single state. 750,000 settlers has made a two-state solution impossible. We've been here before: post-US civil war and post-apartheid South Africa. There is the idea that the currently oppressed population will rise up in vilence against their former oppressors. History doesn't back up this view. Our modern examples such as Reconstruction showed the opposite: the rise of the KKK and the rise of violence against former slaves by their former oppressors. Afghanistan has been described as the graveyard of empires. This region may be vying for that title.
- dbdoskey 2y ago
  Israel existed for decades without US support. No Jews will agree to live under a Muslim majority one state solution, it will inevitably decay into something similar to Lebanon, Syria, or Egypt.
  - murderfs 2y ago
    > No Jews will agree to live under a Muslim majority one state solution Couldn't you say the same about whites in apartheid South Africa?

nebula8804 2y ago

>Given this success, an awful lot of lobbying has been directed at US politicans to pass so-called "anti-BDS" laws that are laws in ~37 states. For example, to be a teacher in Texas, you need to sign a contract agreeing to never participate in a BDS movement against Israel. These are unconstitutional laws that unfortunately are easy to pass but difficult to remove. There needs to be more legal challenges to remove these laws. There have been positive efforts to remove these laws although the states find new ways to keep amended versions of the laws on the books which requires further lawsuits to challenge. [1]:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-BDS_laws#Constitutional_challenges https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-BDS_laws#Constitutional_c...