3 ms·

Out of interest, what do people think is going to happen once humans can semi-reliably get to the moon? I don't often see this part talked about. I read lots a

by hi_hi 2y ago

Out of interest, what do people think is going to happen once humans can semi-reliably get to the moon? I don't often see this part talked about. I read lots about the astronomical (thank you!) cost and effort of getting there, often framed in a way that makes the whole endeavour appear pointless and dumb. Will they just potter about for a few days, grab a handful of rocks, take some jaunty selfies, have a cup of tea and then head home? Like Wallace and Grommit? No. They will prepare to strip mine it for all it is worth. Where is that discussion?

philwelch 2y ago
Man, I wish. We need to catch up and build out the high frontier already.
SJC_Hacker 2y ago
Not much probably. I think it would be at best, be research station. It will be a bit like Antartica. The moon isn't going to be mined anytime soon. There's nothing there we can't get on Earth, 10x cheaper. If there was a permanent presence there anyway, and in addition, you had something like a mass driver (probably built for other purposes, such as further exploration), then the economics might make sense IF you can find valuable ores, which we don't know where they are. But I think even then its dodgy - you would have to manufacture re-entry grade heat shields on the Moon as well to ship your ores / refined products back. If they could do local manufacturing, especially for the less complex/bulky items. To support that you probably need a population there of at least 20 or so, with all the supporting equipment and life support. And they couldn't stay there indefinitely, would probably want a rotation of 6 months-1 year (length of navy deployments / ISS stays). We're talking several thousand kg that you would have to move between Earth / Moon a regular basis. Annual program costs would quickly run into the hundreds of billions. Yeah thats comparable to the US defense budget but one of those things people view as necessary, the other not so much. And no private investor is going to touch it.
- avmich 2y ago
  > There's nothing there we can't get on Earth, 10x cheaper. It's not too big a stretch of imagination to consider producing oxygen on the Moon from rocks and sending it to LEO for refueling Starships - this activity might get useful enough if we're going to use Starships to fly someplace more distant than the low Earth orbit. And Moon-originated oxygen has an energy advantage over the Earth-originated one.
zzzeek 2y ago
hm what IS it worth ? There's some kind of valuable minerals there? Google: "Helium 3". well we do need that
- hi_hi 2y ago
  Yes, exactly this. Helium 3 isn't naturally occurring on Earth, and is very expensive. Nasa are already running challenges for the best way for rovers to process/mine the moons surface. https://www.nasa.gov/learning-resources/lunabotics-challenge/ https://www.nasa.gov/learning-resources/lunabotics-challenge... And how do we deal with the boundary issues of who gets to mine where. Let alone the political issues I'm sure will arise. Theres so much fascinating discussion to be had, but I guess rockets win the cool badge.
- jcranmer 2y ago
  ³He, aka the material whose primary envisioned use is for something we can't do and don't look able to do anytime soon (nuclear fusion), and which exists in comparable concentration on the moon as it does on Earth. That people run to it for the standard example of what can be feasibly mined from the moon should be a strong indicator of how little viability there is for space mining.
carapace 2y ago
Fly. On Luna a human being can fly. You need wings and a large air-filled cave and then you can fly like a bird. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Menace_from_Earth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Menace_from_Earth That alone would surely be worth the price of admission? Also, it's the gateway to the rest of the Solar system, galaxy, and Universe.

by hi_hi 2y ago

philwelch 2y ago

Man, I wish. We need to catch up and build out the high frontier already.

SJC_Hacker 2y ago

Not much probably. I think it would be at best, be research station. It will be a bit like Antartica. The moon isn't going to be mined anytime soon. There's nothing there we can't get on Earth, 10x cheaper. If there was a permanent presence there anyway, and in addition, you had something like a mass driver (probably built for other purposes, such as further exploration), then the economics might make sense IF you can find valuable ores, which we don't know where they are. But I think even then its dodgy - you would have to manufacture re-entry grade heat shields on the Moon as well to ship your ores / refined products back. If they could do local manufacturing, especially for the less complex/bulky items. To support that you probably need a population there of at least 20 or so, with all the supporting equipment and life support. And they couldn't stay there indefinitely, would probably want a rotation of 6 months-1 year (length of navy deployments / ISS stays). We're talking several thousand kg that you would have to move between Earth / Moon a regular basis. Annual program costs would quickly run into the hundreds of billions. Yeah thats comparable to the US defense budget but one of those things people view as necessary, the other not so much. And no private investor is going to touch it.

avmich 2y ago
> There's nothing there we can't get on Earth, 10x cheaper. It's not too big a stretch of imagination to consider producing oxygen on the Moon from rocks and sending it to LEO for refueling Starships - this activity might get useful enough if we're going to use Starships to fly someplace more distant than the low Earth orbit. And Moon-originated oxygen has an energy advantage over the Earth-originated one.

zzzeek 2y ago

hm what IS it worth ? There's some kind of valuable minerals there? Google: "Helium 3". well we do need that

hi_hi 2y ago
Yes, exactly this. Helium 3 isn't naturally occurring on Earth, and is very expensive. Nasa are already running challenges for the best way for rovers to process/mine the moons surface. https://www.nasa.gov/learning-resources/lunabotics-challenge/ https://www.nasa.gov/learning-resources/lunabotics-challenge... And how do we deal with the boundary issues of who gets to mine where. Let alone the political issues I'm sure will arise. Theres so much fascinating discussion to be had, but I guess rockets win the cool badge.
jcranmer 2y ago
³He, aka the material whose primary envisioned use is for something we can't do and don't look able to do anytime soon (nuclear fusion), and which exists in comparable concentration on the moon as it does on Earth. That people run to it for the standard example of what can be feasibly mined from the moon should be a strong indicator of how little viability there is for space mining.

carapace 2y ago

Fly. On Luna a human being can fly. You need wings and a large air-filled cave and then you can fly like a bird. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Menace_from_Earth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Menace_from_Earth That alone would surely be worth the price of admission? Also, it's the gateway to the rest of the Solar system, galaxy, and Universe.