We don't have a clear, agreed upon definition of AGI, a way to test for it, or a way to predict whether a new model will meet those criteria. The definition Op

We don't have a clear, agreed upon definition of AGI, a way to test for it, or a way to predict whether a new model will meet those criteria. The definition OpenAI uses for AGI is being more economically valuable than most humans at most things. That definition is entirely backwards looking. They'll keep releasing new models and occasionally check in to see how each model compared to humans economically. If that isn't bumble ducking our way into it I don't know what is. Its interesting that you raise the difference in knowing the physics behind a bomb before building it and AI research stabbing in the dark as an acceptable thing. Its precisely that they don't know exactly what they're doing that there is so much risk. They're building potentially very powerful and dangerous things, connecting them to the public internet, and selling them to whoever wants to use them. That doesn't seem at all risky or dangerous to you?