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I've thought for a while that the US-Vietnam rapprochement versus China would result in the US Navy returning to Cam Ranh Bay. Does that seem less likely now?

by TMWNN 2y ago

alephnerd 2y ago
> would result in the US Navy returning to Cam Ranh Bay I don't think that was ever on the table. Giving any country a base in VN would drastically affect it's tightrope of neutrality. For example, they have strategic partnerships with US, China, Russia, Sourh Korea, Japan, and India in order to balance relations and maintain neutrality One thing I'm scared is if Trump becomes president, because a lot of people in his orbit who potentially will become SecState aren't as publicly tactful as it is a quick political win, and might force VN to choose between neutrality or a side. If VN is pushed to make a choice, they most likely will choose China just like Thailand+Malaysia did because no one wants a war over the SCS. ---------- The Armed Forces are pro-US, as much of the leadership started their career in the Sino-Vietnamese and Vietnam-Cambodia wars from 1979-1991, and the VN Navy has had multiple confrontations with China in the 2010-2017 period similar to those PH is facing today. The MPS and Nguyen Phu Trong's faction (I call them the Northern faction because of Nguyen and his acolytes starting their career in North VN during the war to 1990s) are much more authoritarian, and more open to leaning towards China due to business and party relations as a lot of FDI in Northern VN came from China. The new president is from this faction. The currently purged faction (who I call the Southern faction because Nguyen Xuan Phuc and Truong Dan Sang plus their acolytes started their careers in Southern VN in the 1990s). They are also authoritarian, but more business facing and more open to Western relations as much of Southern VN's FDI came from Korean and Japanese companies. VN was largely ruled by this faction throughout the late 2000s-early 2020s when COVID corruption scandals came front and center. Hoa/Chinese Vietnamese are fairly prominent in this faction as they tend to be prominent in business. For now, VN appears to prefer neutrality and not having to choose between a side, but if push comes to shove, they will make the choice that will prevent a localized war due to leadership's memories of the 1940s-1990s.

I've thought for a while that the US-Vietnam rapprochement versus China would result in the US Navy returning to Cam Ranh Bay. Does that seem less likely now?

by TMWNN 2y ago

I've thought for a while that the US-Vietnam rapprochement versus China would result in the US Navy returning to Cam Ranh Bay. Does that seem less likely now?

alephnerd 2y ago

> would result in the US Navy returning to Cam Ranh Bay I don't think that was ever on the table. Giving any country a base in VN would drastically affect it's tightrope of neutrality. For example, they have strategic partnerships with US, China, Russia, Sourh Korea, Japan, and India in order to balance relations and maintain neutrality One thing I'm scared is if Trump becomes president, because a lot of people in his orbit who potentially will become SecState aren't as publicly tactful as it is a quick political win, and might force VN to choose between neutrality or a side. If VN is pushed to make a choice, they most likely will choose China just like Thailand+Malaysia did because no one wants a war over the SCS. ---------- The Armed Forces are pro-US, as much of the leadership started their career in the Sino-Vietnamese and Vietnam-Cambodia wars from 1979-1991, and the VN Navy has had multiple confrontations with China in the 2010-2017 period similar to those PH is facing today. The MPS and Nguyen Phu Trong's faction (I call them the Northern faction because of Nguyen and his acolytes starting their career in North VN during the war to 1990s) are much more authoritarian, and more open to leaning towards China due to business and party relations as a lot of FDI in Northern VN came from China. The new president is from this faction. The currently purged faction (who I call the Southern faction because Nguyen Xuan Phuc and Truong Dan Sang plus their acolytes started their careers in Southern VN in the 1990s). They are also authoritarian, but more business facing and more open to Western relations as much of Southern VN's FDI came from Korean and Japanese companies. VN was largely ruled by this faction throughout the late 2000s-early 2020s when COVID corruption scandals came front and center. Hoa/Chinese Vietnamese are fairly prominent in this faction as they tend to be prominent in business. For now, VN appears to prefer neutrality and not having to choose between a side, but if push comes to shove, they will make the choice that will prevent a localized war due to leadership's memories of the 1940s-1990s.