I think this is basically the right insight, yes. At the level of a state, there is probably a close connection between warrants served there and crimes commit

I think this is basically the right insight, yes. At the level of a state, there is probably a close connection between warrants served there and crimes committed there, because most people spend most of their time in one state. At the level of neighborhoods, though, there probably isn't, because most people travel across numerous neighborhoods every day and warrants are served wherever it happens that the criminal is found by police or stopped for an unrelated reason.