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An alternative hypothesis: The Natural Selection of Good Graphs. People want their numbers to go up, so yes men tell them it is so. E.g. founders tell the VCs t

An alternative hypothesis: The Natural Selection of Good Graphs. People want their numbers to go up, so yes men tell them it is so. E.g. founders tell the VCs that business is booming, politicians tell their voter base unemployment has never been lower, etc., even if it takes some slight adjustments in the meaning of "booming" or "unemployment" to get that answer.

amadeuspagel 2y ago
Do you want numbers to go up? If you see a graph showing economic growth and declining poverty, do you boost it or do you look for something to nitpick? Do you expect other people to be different?
- from-nibly 2y ago
  This is why I always assume that the chart is lying to me. If important people won't stfu about how great the economy is, its likely they are "boosting".
- lazide 2y ago
  That depends on if the graph is congruent with observed reality - and what reality is being observed, and expectations of accuracy of others and one’s own observations. For instance, I’ve personally noticed increasing delusion (as in objective disconnects from testable reality!) across all media, especially during winter months and when political events are occurring. I’m referring to blatant lies, gaslighting, self serving emotional manipulation, etc. Both ‘sides’ are not the same, and one party is clearly doing it very blatantly and at large scale - but both are doing it regularly, it’s not hard to find examples. I’ve noticed increased homelessness. I’ve noticed employers flat out lying when posting jobs - posting false job postings, refusing to look at qualified candidates, blatantly discriminating against folks based on protected classes. I’ve noticed a major shift in interpersonal relationships between genders professionally and personally. I’ve noticed increasing propoganda pressure aimed at individuals undermining long term societal (and individual) needs. I’ve noticed skyrocketing rents and still very high housing. I’ve noticed very high grocery costs, rapidly increasing. I’ve noticed major changes in people’s social engagement and behaviors, including the rise in very aggressive and predatory manipulative behavior. I’ve noticed what appears to be society wide burnout and increasing mental health issues. I’ve noticed at least one major sector of the economy (tech) being completely messed up, with an outsourcing boom building. I’ve noticed a lack of correction (but messed up fundamentals and large scale vacancies) in commercial real estate, and less messed up (but still very disconnected from fundamentals like rent/own costs) in residential real estate. Both of which I have investments in, in the past, and are now so disconnected from historical ‘healthy’ objective criteria it’s mind blowing. And have been for a decade now. I’ve noticed every contractor I’ve talked to for at least the last 2 years appears to be in some sort of mental collapse, waay more than is typical. Same for book keepers/accountants and lawyers. I’ve noticed that manufacturing jobs and certain types of labor jobs appear to be doing great. And some skilled jobs appear to be doing well too. But a lot of employers have ramped up abusive and predatory behaviors over the last 2-3 years, and have gotten really out of control. Service type jobs, construction, and manufacturing jobs have been doing well though! Some white collar ones too. Though many of the employees in those cases feel like they’re getting their throats cut by inflation. The economic growth is measured in turnover, which is ‘helped’ by increased prices and costs. The poverty rate hasn’t meaningfully changed as far as I’m aware? [https://www.census.gov/newsroom/stories/poverty-awareness-month.html#:~:text=The%20official%20poverty%20rate%20in,decreased%20between%202021%20and%202022 https://www.census.gov/newsroom/stories/poverty-awareness-mo....] And many of the folks can’t articulate the reasons why they feel screwed up, or how to get out of it, they just feel like things are going the wrong direction. Notably, one party is using extensive emotional manipulation to convince everyone that they are under attack using whatever vague BS or outright lies they can come up with. But they are also objective things that are a problem for those same targetted folks that the other party is clearly lying about/gaslighting them about, which is feeding the fire. Which, hey - there are also many other reasons why it is or could be doing objectively getting bad. No one can seem to agree on them though, so folks can’t make meaningful progress in a hopefully useful direction no? [https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/americans-country-headed-wrong-direction-poll/story?id=104633234 https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/americans-country-headed...] And that is very dangerous, as it increases the opportunity for populists and dictators. So it’s entirely possible the ‘real economy’ graph is going up and to the right (though if we factor in actual inflation, I’m significantly more skeptical) while the majority of the country is feeling miserable, poor, and stressed out.
  - matrix87 2y ago
    > I’ve noticed increasing propoganda pressure aimed at individuals undermining long term societal (and individual) needs. What does this mean

amadeuspagel 2y ago

Do you want numbers to go up? If you see a graph showing economic growth and declining poverty, do you boost it or do you look for something to nitpick? Do you expect other people to be different?

from-nibly 2y ago
This is why I always assume that the chart is lying to me. If important people won't stfu about how great the economy is, its likely they are "boosting".
lazide 2y ago
That depends on if the graph is congruent with observed reality - and what reality is being observed, and expectations of accuracy of others and one’s own observations. For instance, I’ve personally noticed increasing delusion (as in objective disconnects from testable reality!) across all media, especially during winter months and when political events are occurring. I’m referring to blatant lies, gaslighting, self serving emotional manipulation, etc. Both ‘sides’ are not the same, and one party is clearly doing it very blatantly and at large scale - but both are doing it regularly, it’s not hard to find examples. I’ve noticed increased homelessness. I’ve noticed employers flat out lying when posting jobs - posting false job postings, refusing to look at qualified candidates, blatantly discriminating against folks based on protected classes. I’ve noticed a major shift in interpersonal relationships between genders professionally and personally. I’ve noticed increasing propoganda pressure aimed at individuals undermining long term societal (and individual) needs. I’ve noticed skyrocketing rents and still very high housing. I’ve noticed very high grocery costs, rapidly increasing. I’ve noticed major changes in people’s social engagement and behaviors, including the rise in very aggressive and predatory manipulative behavior. I’ve noticed what appears to be society wide burnout and increasing mental health issues. I’ve noticed at least one major sector of the economy (tech) being completely messed up, with an outsourcing boom building. I’ve noticed a lack of correction (but messed up fundamentals and large scale vacancies) in commercial real estate, and less messed up (but still very disconnected from fundamentals like rent/own costs) in residential real estate. Both of which I have investments in, in the past, and are now so disconnected from historical ‘healthy’ objective criteria it’s mind blowing. And have been for a decade now. I’ve noticed every contractor I’ve talked to for at least the last 2 years appears to be in some sort of mental collapse, waay more than is typical. Same for book keepers/accountants and lawyers. I’ve noticed that manufacturing jobs and certain types of labor jobs appear to be doing great. And some skilled jobs appear to be doing well too. But a lot of employers have ramped up abusive and predatory behaviors over the last 2-3 years, and have gotten really out of control. Service type jobs, construction, and manufacturing jobs have been doing well though! Some white collar ones too. Though many of the employees in those cases feel like they’re getting their throats cut by inflation. The economic growth is measured in turnover, which is ‘helped’ by increased prices and costs. The poverty rate hasn’t meaningfully changed as far as I’m aware? [https://www.census.gov/newsroom/stories/poverty-awareness-month.html#:~:text=The%20official%20poverty%20rate%20in,decreased%20between%202021%20and%202022 https://www.census.gov/newsroom/stories/poverty-awareness-mo....] And many of the folks can’t articulate the reasons why they feel screwed up, or how to get out of it, they just feel like things are going the wrong direction. Notably, one party is using extensive emotional manipulation to convince everyone that they are under attack using whatever vague BS or outright lies they can come up with. But they are also objective things that are a problem for those same targetted folks that the other party is clearly lying about/gaslighting them about, which is feeding the fire. Which, hey - there are also many other reasons why it is or could be doing objectively getting bad. No one can seem to agree on them though, so folks can’t make meaningful progress in a hopefully useful direction no? [https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/americans-country-headed-wrong-direction-poll/story?id=104633234 https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/americans-country-headed...] And that is very dangerous, as it increases the opportunity for populists and dictators. So it’s entirely possible the ‘real economy’ graph is going up and to the right (though if we factor in actual inflation, I’m significantly more skeptical) while the majority of the country is feeling miserable, poor, and stressed out.
- matrix87 2y ago
  > I’ve noticed increasing propoganda pressure aimed at individuals undermining long term societal (and individual) needs. What does this mean