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> then they plan on moving to an internal consumption centric model. China does not have the demographics for this.

• sudosysgen 2y ago
  Huh? An aging population is actually one of the things that will force it. More retirees will take more of the surplus from the productive population and reduce the surplus left for export.
  • 39896880 2y ago
    Peak consumption happens around 45-54, and then declines. Kids are out of the house (which is paid for). At retirement, consumption is more conservative because the retiree is on a fixed income. Speaking of fixed incomes, these retirees are dependent on risky investments like real estate (collapsing) and public pension schemes (about to collapse). On top of this, retirees aren’t generally the consumers of the supply chain components that China makes. Remember, they never moved up the value chain of sophisticated goods manufacturing. They got too expensive before that.
    • sudosysgen 2y ago
      I'm not talking about peak consumption, I'm talking about the production-consumption split.