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Tbh, he wasn’t convicted as far as I know. But yes, he’s overly optimistic with timelines. He says so himself.

kibwen 2y ago
The first time someone is "overly optimistic with a timeline", you should forgive them. The tenth time, you should have the good sense to realize that they're full of shit and either a habitual liar or utterly incompetent.
- sashank_1509 2y ago
  >Man who’s the second richest, led companies that made electric cars and reusable rockets >> Random HN commentator : utterly incompetent I want what you’re smoking
  - mynameisvlad 2y ago
    He may be the second richest but he still doesn’t seem competent enough to provide remotely reasonable estimates. That, or he’s just a straight up liar who knows the things he says are never going to happen. Which would you rather it be?
  - troupo 2y ago
    Yes, he is largely incompetent but with a great nose for picking up good companies: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40066514 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40066514
- schmidtleonard 2y ago
  Realists are incapable of pushing frontiers. If you are doing something that has been done before, hire a realist. Your project will ship on time and within budget. If you are doing something that hasn't been done before, you need an optimist. Partly because the realists run for the hills -- they know the odds and the odds are bad -- but also because their hedging behavior will turn your small chance of success into zero chance of success. On these projects, optimism doesn't guarantee success, but pessimism/realism does guarantee failure. So no, I am not scandalized to find that the world's biggest innovator (I hate his politics, but this is simply the truth) is systematically biased towards optimism. It's not surprising, it is inevitable.
  - lesostep 2y ago
    Wright Brothers took a risk and build first planes but didn't have to lie that their planes already left the ground before they did. They didn't claim "it would fly a year from now", they just build it over and over until it flew. They were optimistic and yet they found a way to be optimistic without claiming anything untruthful. Clément Ader, on the other hand, claimed that his innovation flew, and was ridiculed when he couldn't proof it. One look at their works and it's clear who influenced modern planes, and who didn't.
    - schmidtleonard 2y ago
      The Wright Brothers are infamous for failing to industrialize their invention -- something that notoriously requires investors and hype. Perhaps they wouldn't have squandered their lead if they had been a bit more public with their hopes and dreams.
  - thefaux 2y ago
    There is a difference between saying "we believe we will achieve X in the next year" and "we will achieve X in the next year." Each framing has its advantages and disadvantages, but it's hard to accuse the person who makes the former statement of lying.

The first time someone is "overly optimistic with a timeline", you should forgive them. The tenth time, you should have the good sense to realize that they're full of shit and either a habitual liar or utterly incompetent.

sashank_1509 2y ago
>Man who’s the second richest, led companies that made electric cars and reusable rockets >> Random HN commentator : utterly incompetent I want what you’re smoking
- mynameisvlad 2y ago
  He may be the second richest but he still doesn’t seem competent enough to provide remotely reasonable estimates. That, or he’s just a straight up liar who knows the things he says are never going to happen. Which would you rather it be?
- troupo 2y ago
  Yes, he is largely incompetent but with a great nose for picking up good companies: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40066514 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40066514
schmidtleonard 2y ago
Realists are incapable of pushing frontiers. If you are doing something that has been done before, hire a realist. Your project will ship on time and within budget. If you are doing something that hasn't been done before, you need an optimist. Partly because the realists run for the hills -- they know the odds and the odds are bad -- but also because their hedging behavior will turn your small chance of success into zero chance of success. On these projects, optimism doesn't guarantee success, but pessimism/realism does guarantee failure. So no, I am not scandalized to find that the world's biggest innovator (I hate his politics, but this is simply the truth) is systematically biased towards optimism. It's not surprising, it is inevitable.
- lesostep 2y ago
  Wright Brothers took a risk and build first planes but didn't have to lie that their planes already left the ground before they did. They didn't claim "it would fly a year from now", they just build it over and over until it flew. They were optimistic and yet they found a way to be optimistic without claiming anything untruthful. Clément Ader, on the other hand, claimed that his innovation flew, and was ridiculed when he couldn't proof it. One look at their works and it's clear who influenced modern planes, and who didn't.
  - schmidtleonard 2y ago
    The Wright Brothers are infamous for failing to industrialize their invention -- something that notoriously requires investors and hype. Perhaps they wouldn't have squandered their lead if they had been a bit more public with their hopes and dreams.
- thefaux 2y ago
  There is a difference between saying "we believe we will achieve X in the next year" and "we will achieve X in the next year." Each framing has its advantages and disadvantages, but it's hard to accuse the person who makes the former statement of lying.