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The whole conversation started with this quotation from the Foreign Policy Magazine[0]: "The extent of what is being contemplated by Ukrainian lawmakers is sta

The whole conversation started with this quotation from the Foreign Policy Magazine[0]: "The extent of what is being contemplated by Ukrainian lawmakers is staggering. According to Tamila Tasheva, Zelensky’s representative in Crimea, if it were liberated tomorrow, at least 200,000 residents of Crimea would face collaboration charges, and another 500,000 to 800,000 residents would face deportation. Refat Chubarov, the chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatars, says that more than 1 million people—more than half the current population—will have to leave “immediately.”" I don't see how anyone responding in good faith could answer to it with "Booting out people who have illegally invaded and occupied your land is not ethnic cleansing". This conversation is over. [0] https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/18/ukraine-russia-war-civil-rights-freedom-speech-religion/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/12/18/ukraine-russia-war-civi...

mopsi 2y ago
You cannot expect to invade another country, drive away the local population and replace it with colonizers from your homeland, and expect that when the tide turns and your military is driven away, your colonizers will get to keep the homes and businesses that they had illegally taken over. After WWII, German colonizers had to pack their things and return homes and farms in Poland back to their rightful owners. Russians in Crimea are no different. It's insane to expect a different outcome. And this has nothing to do with ethnic cleansing. The people who choose to move into occupied Crimea, enter and stay in Ukraine illegally.
racional 2y ago
I don't see how anyone can claim in good faith that expelling these people (who settled illegally since 2014 in support of Russia's overall project of aggression against Ukraine) is a form of "ethnic cleansing", as you've been stating. The two situations are entirely different. BTW the numbers are being distorted upwards for some reason. Initially it was 500k-800k which is 20-30 percent of the current population of 2.4M. But then it somehow started getting quoted as 1M (without attribution). Which is still distinctly less than half (rather than "more than half") of 2.4M. Also Tasheva put the number of people likely to be blacklisted at around 10,000; there is no source for the 200k number.
- protomolecule 2y ago
  >who settled illegally since 2014 At most 200k Russians moved to Crimea. [0] I suspect at least some of that number are Crimeans who decided to identify themselves as Russians after Ukrainian water and electricity blockade of Crimea[1]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea [1] https://euromaidanpress.com/2020/02/27/ukraines-water-blockade-of-crimea-should-stay-because-its-working/ https://euromaidanpress.com/2020/02/27/ukraines-water-blocka...
  - racional 2y ago
    The 200k number doesn't follow from the tables in [0]. It gives a net population difference of about that amount, but it doesn't explain what accounts for the difference (how much of it is people moving in and out of the region, versus how many changed their affiliation between 2014 and 2021). Also, it depends on official Russian statistics -- which means ultimately it's a question of whether one is inclined to believe what Russian government says about such things. Whatever the real number is -- at least Tasheva is saying that the criteria for expulsion is "having entered Crimea illegally". Her numbers may be off -- but at least that's the stated policy. And it's definitely quite different from "we're also going to expel anyone who changed their identification in the 2021 census".
    - protomolecule 2y ago
      >The 200k number doesn't follow from the tables in. It does. It's the difference in the number of ethnic Russians in Crimea. No doubt some Russians might have left Crimea in that period but I don't see any reason to think it's a significant number. >it depends on official Russian statistics That's why I quoted an article in the Foreign Policy Magazine by a professor of political science at the University of Rhode Island. I don't see in this thread any sources related to your arguments. Let' me repeat that quote: "The extent of what is being contemplated by Ukrainian lawmakers is staggering. According to Tamila Tasheva, Zelensky’s representative in Crimea, if it were liberated tomorrow, at least 200,000 residents of Crimea would face collaboration charges, and another 500,000 to 800,000 residents would face deportation. Refat Chubarov, the chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatars, says that more than 1 million people—more than half the current population—will have to leave “immediately.”"

mopsi 2y ago

You cannot expect to invade another country, drive away the local population and replace it with colonizers from your homeland, and expect that when the tide turns and your military is driven away, your colonizers will get to keep the homes and businesses that they had illegally taken over. After WWII, German colonizers had to pack their things and return homes and farms in Poland back to their rightful owners. Russians in Crimea are no different. It's insane to expect a different outcome. And this has nothing to do with ethnic cleansing. The people who choose to move into occupied Crimea, enter and stay in Ukraine illegally.

racional 2y ago

I don't see how anyone can claim in good faith that expelling these people (who settled illegally since 2014 in support of Russia's overall project of aggression against Ukraine) is a form of "ethnic cleansing", as you've been stating. The two situations are entirely different. BTW the numbers are being distorted upwards for some reason. Initially it was 500k-800k which is 20-30 percent of the current population of 2.4M. But then it somehow started getting quoted as 1M (without attribution). Which is still distinctly less than half (rather than "more than half") of 2.4M. Also Tasheva put the number of people likely to be blacklisted at around 10,000; there is no source for the 200k number.

protomolecule 2y ago
>who settled illegally since 2014 At most 200k Russians moved to Crimea. [0] I suspect at least some of that number are Crimeans who decided to identify themselves as Russians after Ukrainian water and electricity blockade of Crimea[1]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea [1] https://euromaidanpress.com/2020/02/27/ukraines-water-blockade-of-crimea-should-stay-because-its-working/ https://euromaidanpress.com/2020/02/27/ukraines-water-blocka...
- racional 2y ago
  The 200k number doesn't follow from the tables in [0]. It gives a net population difference of about that amount, but it doesn't explain what accounts for the difference (how much of it is people moving in and out of the region, versus how many changed their affiliation between 2014 and 2021). Also, it depends on official Russian statistics -- which means ultimately it's a question of whether one is inclined to believe what Russian government says about such things. Whatever the real number is -- at least Tasheva is saying that the criteria for expulsion is "having entered Crimea illegally". Her numbers may be off -- but at least that's the stated policy. And it's definitely quite different from "we're also going to expel anyone who changed their identification in the 2021 census".
  - protomolecule 2y ago
    >The 200k number doesn't follow from the tables in. It does. It's the difference in the number of ethnic Russians in Crimea. No doubt some Russians might have left Crimea in that period but I don't see any reason to think it's a significant number. >it depends on official Russian statistics That's why I quoted an article in the Foreign Policy Magazine by a professor of political science at the University of Rhode Island. I don't see in this thread any sources related to your arguments. Let' me repeat that quote: "The extent of what is being contemplated by Ukrainian lawmakers is staggering. According to Tamila Tasheva, Zelensky’s representative in Crimea, if it were liberated tomorrow, at least 200,000 residents of Crimea would face collaboration charges, and another 500,000 to 800,000 residents would face deportation. Refat Chubarov, the chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatars, says that more than 1 million people—more than half the current population—will have to leave “immediately.”"