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Agree that it was not a great article, but I think the main point he made was that the commercial winners will be those that can deliver to customers. OpenAI w
by helsinkiandrew 2y ago
Agree that it was not a great article, but I think the main point he made was that the commercial winners will be those that can deliver to customers. OpenAI with its relationship with Microsoft will have exposure to that but even a lessor LLM that is tightly integrated with your gmail and the google suite, or is running privately on your iPhone with your iCloud data, or is 'free' will be the winner. Apple, Google, and Meta can spend 10s or 100s of billions of dollars to build AI tools to support their other profit making products. I'm a happy paying OpenAI customer, but the majority of the world (where the money is) will happily use the AI that comes with their phone, search engine, or word processor.
> The reason for my bearishness is simple: OpenAI, the software company, will ultimately lose to Apple, Google, and Meta. OpenAI, the hardware company, will also ultimately lose to Apple, Google, and Meta. Their only hope is to be the first to AGI.
- sumedh 2y ago> Apple, Google, and Meta can spend 10s or 100s of billions of dollars to build AI tools If money was the only issue, why did Google fail in Chat, why did Apple fail with Siri, Meta failed with Metaverse.
- helsinkiandrew 2y agoMy point was they can spend billions and fail on projects and continue being profitable, they don't need to make commercially successful, better AI products than OpenAI to succeed. Apple could release an iPhone based LLM agent that is 50% as good as OpenAI, Meta can spend billions developing an LLM to use internally and give away.
- sumedh 2y ago> My point was they can spend billions and fail on projects Now you can understand why ChatGpt was the fastest growing consumer app in history and why they probably will hold that lead for a while.