3 ms·

Birthrate seems to have little correlation with income. The Scandinavian countries have made hard pushes to incentivize having children and they still wont. Mor

Birthrate seems to have little correlation with income. The Scandinavian countries have made hard pushes to incentivize having children and they still wont. More likely that people just dont want kids.

dangus 2y ago
When half your babies aren’t dying of disease and you have life and career aspirations for yourself the idea of raising more than 1-3 kids seems pretty insane. Arguably low birth rates are a very good thing and we should adjust our society more to embrace them (like not building the economy so that it depends on being a giant pyramid scheme).
rybosworld 2y ago
Birth rate has generally been inversely correlated to income. AFAIK this is true in almost every country. The plot of Idiocracy was derived from this phenomenon. Humans are complicated and there are probably multiple reasons for this. But the most convincing one that I've heard is tied to education. Higher income generally means better education. And the better educated are more likely to use birth control. https://wol.iza.org/uploads/articles/228/pdfs/female-education-and-its-impact-on-fertility.pdf https://wol.iza.org/uploads/articles/228/pdfs/female-educati... I mentioned before that birth rate and income are generally inversely correlated. But that isn't completely true. The relationship is more of a j-curve. That is, past a certain income (think top 5% or more), the fertility rate begins to tick up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility#:~:text=There%20is%20generally%20an%20inverse,born%20in%20any%20developed%20country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility#:~:text=T.... So, the breakdown is basically this: - The lowest-income/least-educated have the most children by far. - As you climb up the middle income/college-educated ladder, fertility drops almost linearly. - The wealthiest have more kids than the upper middle income, but still a lot less than low income.
- bombcar 2y ago
  Elon has 11 kids, so it doesn't always apply.
kaibee 2y ago
Do you have some numbers on this? I suspect it's a couple of issues. 1. If you just give people money to pay for childcare or whatever, but there's not enough labor, then all that happens is that the price gets bid up higher. 2. I suspect that the 'hard push' wasn't arrived at by figuring out how much money it would actually take to make someone have kids, but by fighting for whatever Euros could be diverted. There is definitely an amount of money that people will have kids for, but I think it is a lot higher than governments/electorates are ready to confront.
- HDThoreaun 2y ago
  > 1. If you just give people money to pay for childcare or whatever, but there's not enough labor, then all that happens is that the price gets bid up higher. All of these countries have universal childcare starting at 12-18 months with over 90% attendance. I think point 2 is worth investigating, it could be a truly ludicrous number though for all I know.

dangus 2y ago

When half your babies aren’t dying of disease and you have life and career aspirations for yourself the idea of raising more than 1-3 kids seems pretty insane. Arguably low birth rates are a very good thing and we should adjust our society more to embrace them (like not building the economy so that it depends on being a giant pyramid scheme).

rybosworld 2y ago

Birth rate has generally been inversely correlated to income. AFAIK this is true in almost every country. The plot of Idiocracy was derived from this phenomenon. Humans are complicated and there are probably multiple reasons for this. But the most convincing one that I've heard is tied to education. Higher income generally means better education. And the better educated are more likely to use birth control. https://wol.iza.org/uploads/articles/228/pdfs/female-education-and-its-impact-on-fertility.pdf https://wol.iza.org/uploads/articles/228/pdfs/female-educati... I mentioned before that birth rate and income are generally inversely correlated. But that isn't completely true. The relationship is more of a j-curve. That is, past a certain income (think top 5% or more), the fertility rate begins to tick up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility#:~:text=There%20is%20generally%20an%20inverse,born%20in%20any%20developed%20country https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility#:~:text=T.... So, the breakdown is basically this: - The lowest-income/least-educated have the most children by far. - As you climb up the middle income/college-educated ladder, fertility drops almost linearly. - The wealthiest have more kids than the upper middle income, but still a lot less than low income.

bombcar 2y ago
Elon has 11 kids, so it doesn't always apply.

kaibee 2y ago

Do you have some numbers on this? I suspect it's a couple of issues. 1. If you just give people money to pay for childcare or whatever, but there's not enough labor, then all that happens is that the price gets bid up higher. 2. I suspect that the 'hard push' wasn't arrived at by figuring out how much money it would actually take to make someone have kids, but by fighting for whatever Euros could be diverted. There is definitely an amount of money that people will have kids for, but I think it is a lot higher than governments/electorates are ready to confront.

HDThoreaun 2y ago
> 1. If you just give people money to pay for childcare or whatever, but there's not enough labor, then all that happens is that the price gets bid up higher. All of these countries have universal childcare starting at 12-18 months with over 90% attendance. I think point 2 is worth investigating, it could be a truly ludicrous number though for all I know.