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The China and Russia relationship is complex. China, historically, has for most part chose to not commit to any alliances -- out of fear of being dragged into
by hangonhn 2y ago
The China and Russia relationship is complex.
China, historically, has for most part chose to not commit to any alliances -- out of fear of being dragged into an unwanted war. This is largely still true today with the exception of perhaps North Korea today and during the early part of the Mao era with the USSR. According to Kissinger, China instead uses a system of "parallel analysis" where if two parties look at the same facts and arrive at the same conclusion then they will act towards a common goal. This was what China did when it was in a quasi-alliance with the US during the Cold War after the Nixon trips. Something similar might be happening now with Russia in regards to both countries want to see the US attention occupied and resources stretched.
Furthermore, Russia is resource rich but industry poor. China is the reverse. This makes them ideal trade partners. As sibling comments have pointed out, the border disputes between the two countries are now resolved. I guarantee you the PRC does not feel the same way about Vladivostok as they do about Taiwan. Taiwan isn't even foreign in their eyes -- it's an unresolved issue from their civil war. Vladivostok is lost to another country and its loss has been accepted.
> I don't think China really cares if Russia wins or loses in Ukraine and Russia does not really care if China takes Taiwan.
I agree. I think China just wants the war over one way or another. That said, I think they would prefer it if Russia comes out of it with their prestige intact simply because China has so few partners as it is (because of their aversion to alliances).
Lastly, I would add that, if you imagine China abandoning Russia as the US and EU want them to, what would they gain in return? A pat on the head and then what? More requests to comply with the system of liberal democracies? China's foreign policy has a very strong realist bend and is driven by very concrete gains and losses calculations. They don't place as much value on softer things like good will. Why would they jeopardize their energy and resource security for something as nebulous as good will from the US and EU?