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Is the move to electric cars running out of power?
- audunw 2y agoNorway had a little downward bump in sales around the 10-20% market share mark too if I remember correctly. But after going through that speed bump the sales have shot up to 90%+ I wonder if it’s kind of necessary to sit on that ~10% level for a while to drive infrastructure investments. And then when infrastructure gets up to a decent level further growth is unlocked. I remember it was a very short timespan where it went from feeling like we had some fast chargers here and there, to it feeling like chargers was absolutely everywhere. I think that does a lot to give people confidence in buying EVs If you look at curves of other technology transitions it doesn’t seem like these kind of bumps or pauses in growth are unusual.
- winternett 2y agoThe industry should have started out with smaller cars and motorcycles with swappable battery cells. It would have solved so many problems in even deploying charge centers, but unfortunately, it means reduced profit. Tech Companies focus on monthly subscriptions and planned obsolescence to guarantee revenue streams so much now that it's making intentionally disposable products that will do far more environmental damage than fuel burning vehicles. We're making bike and bus lanes and speed cameras that bottleneck traffic, while wondering why no one wants to work. The lead EV manufacturing company is led by someone with astronomical wealth that is impulsive and erratic, despite having a faulty and way over-stylized product that many are buying, but most fail within the first 5-6 years, and sit dormant due to very high repair costs. Even the quality and long-term reliability of gas powered vehicles has declined for unknown reasons as they become primarily software-based, which some believe are the result of trying to encourage EV sales. The reason why EV markets are faltering now are simple... They're just not very viable and reliable in their current form in comparison to traditional vehicles. We all need to reject the "new mobile phone + plan every year" model of car ownership. Not only is it not sustainable, it's not environmentally safe.
- denvrede 2y agoFor me personally (I spoke to others and they mostly agree) the biggest downside is that for "public" charging I pay a 100% premium. My costs at home (I live in a rented apartment with no possibility of charging an EV) for 1kw/h are 0.30€. The average price for charging publicly here are 0.59€. Plus the hassle of having a quadrillion providers for which I would have to check first what the cheapest one at a given charger would be. I have enough inconveniences in my life, won't add another one (especially one that could be easily resolved).
- soco 2y agoSame feeling here. Given enough cars, thus given enough pressure, I'm convinced we will see some regulation coming into place. I just hope it won't become like the actual regional energy monopoly...
- edude03 2y agoI used to have a bmw i3 then a model y while I lived in an apartment building. In my experience although public charging is more expensive the amount you pay overall is cheaper than an equivalent gas vehicle such that it’s probably not worth trying to find the cheapest station more than once. For example to go “500km” in the model y charging at home with the cheapest electricity it’s about $6. At a super charger I pay about $30. 5x more expensive but for my f150 I pay $120-150 for the same distance. Between the two options charging at the super charger every time is still 4x cheaper than gas even though I could save even more charging at home
- dartos 2y agoWhat’s the weight difference between the SUV and the f150? F150s aren’t known for having the best mileage
- edude03 2y agoQuite a bit (can't find a reliable number, but looks like 300-1000kg and yes, I realize that's a wide range) The fuel economy is actually quite reasonable unloaded - I'm getting 11L/100km vs 13 on my 370z. The point I'm trying to make though is that it's probably not worth it to look at saving cents/kw when you're likely to come out ahead either way. And yes, maybe more to the point of the original article - yes, if you have no car and you're only concerned with the cheapest to operate vehicle I'm confident something like a Prius driven gingerly and only filled up while gas is historically low (over a week window or whatever) you could beat an EV. On the other hand, that doesn't describe most people with cars already so for most people even living in an apartment they'd likely save money.
- hasselhoftd 2y ago[dead]
- oldpersonintx 2y ago[dead]
- ta1243 2y agoWithout tax incentives EVs are far more expensive for people who only drive say 5-10k miles a year. My fuel costs are about 15p/mile in my old rustbucket (45mpg is about 10 miles per litre, £1.50 a litre) An EV will do say 4 miles per kWh, so in theory at 30p/kWh that's 7.5p per mile, half the price. 5000 miles a year that's £375 saving with electric. Add in another £160 VED saving (again my old bucket) and that's £500 a year. A bottom of the line Micra is about £13k new. A bottom of the line Leaf is £27k new. A new micra will get better milage and lower VED than my 20 year old one too.
- eigenspace 2y ago> Without tax incentives EVs are far more expensive for people who only drive say 5-10k miles a year. If you're only driving 5-10k miles a year, car ownership seems like a massive unnecessary burden, electric or ICE. But given you're measuring in miles, I guess there's a good chance you're not from somewhere with adequate public transit and bicycle infrastructure. In my opinion, we really need to focus less on personal electric cars and more on making high quality, convenient, electric public transportation. ________________________ Edit: 5-10 -> 5-10k
- Ekaros 2y agoThere is always opportunity cost... I like having car available even if I drive very little or short distances. It is there when I need it. And electric cars don't have same range as my cheap gasoline car. Not at least on same price point. So at times I need that range getting 160-200km to somewhere and then back without charging... And taxis here are expensive. It would not be that many trips in a month with all the things that I consider car is nicer...
- eigenspace 2y agoSure, it's definitely nice to always have a car on hand to use whenever you like, but how much are you really willing to pay for that? Your milage may vary, but I've found that so-called carshare services (i.e. app based car rentals) give me a good way of having an on-demand car parked within walking distance of my home that I can use when I need, but I don't actually have to deal with the expenses and hassle of car ownership, and ends up much cheaper overall since I'm normally very well served by public transit. Obviously this isn't available everywhere, e.g. the person I was responding to lives somewhat rurally, so probably doesn't have such services available to them.
- exar0815 2y agoI won't drive an electric car as long as possible. Not because they are electric or I have any love at all for cumbustion cars, but because I work in the industry. I see what's inside those things, I see what the plans for the next generation are, and they are a cost-cutters wet dream. They are getting even more over-engineered, fully stuffed of useless, cheap, consumer-standard-manufactured gadgets, with software so unbelievabley shit that wouldn't be allowed to run on anything else, design and engineering teams lead by testosteroned morons - and everything targeted on rent-seeking and commodifying for the quick buck. Seeing the current generation of EVs of many large companies, they will never be environmentally sensible - just because they are all around designed in a way to be basically impossible to be used for more than a couple of years.
- karmakurtisaani 2y agoSurely you have a concrete example of any of this at least?
- soco 2y agoI won't argue with the general feeling, but keeping it realistic, a consumer-standard article like a car is just expected to have consumer-standard gadgets in it. And car software is already garbage to begin with, almost makes you wonder how programmers/managers/qa working in the industry manage to sell their CV outside it - but garbage quality is pretty much our standard nowadays, so there's that..
- realusername 2y ago> They are getting even more over-engineered, fully stuffed of useless, cheap, consumer-standard-manufactured gadgets, with software so unbelievabley shit that wouldn't be allowed to run on anything else, design and engineering teams lead by testosteroned morons - and everything targeted on rent-seeking and commodifying for the quick buck. Same for new ICE cars, maybe even worse than electric cars. If you want a reasonable "just-works" minimalist design, you have to buy a used car prior 2010. Anything newer will suffer from those issues.
- RetroTechie 2y ago
- beAbU 2y agoI think it's cost. Up to now, EVs have been very very expensive. We are only now starting to see EVs approaching the €20k mark. Al lthe rich folks who are interested in getting an EV got one already. The rest of us still can't afford them. I'm in the market now, but I'll be looking at the 2nd hand market because new is just too rich for my blood. Here in Ireland the grants are also drying up reducing the incentives further. I think this will change pretty soon. As more cheaper new EVs come online, the bottom of the 2nd hand market will drop out. It's a pity that the majority of ev manufacturers are focusing on ultra loaded luxury land-space-ships. Give me a cheap urban transport capsule with 100km range that charges quickly, and I'll be dead happy and probably buy 2.
- piva00 2y agoThe only fear I'd have buying a 2nd hand on what I consider these 1st/2nd generation EVs is battery repairability/replacement. Buying a 10 years old used ICE car is a pretty common and affordable option for many people, a 10 years old EV might need its whole battery pack replaced, and as far as I know that is a pretty massive cost.
- Ekaros 2y agoAnd with 10 year old cars you have enough spread to know the common issues and costs to repair those. Some of them are pretty minor. But battery packs still can be very substantial comparatively. And I would really worry about some second/third hand battery from fly-by night operator that might actually not properly guarantee anything.
- beAbU 2y agoThis is true, and EVs have not been in the market long enough to really know how they behave over long periods of time and high miles. There is also not a strong enough secondary market of mechanics, parts dealers, second-hand parts, generic batteries/drive units etc. BUT, having said that, the common sentiment that I'm picking up in my online "research" is that it's not as a big issue as made out to be. The Nissan Leaf specifically has issues with its battery design that makes high mileage batteries that were mostly fast-charged very suspect, but in general for other cars with proper thermal management, degradation is not really an issue. 80% after 5-10 years is not so bad, especially if the car is much cheaper than comparable new models. But yes, the cost of replacing that battery after 10-20 years is massive, considering that an ICE car will happily last that long if it's looked after, and if not, usually an engine overhaul is all that's needed. Once again, it comes back to cost. Everything is too expensive, and EVs are still seen as a luxury item, compared to an affordable means of transport.
- thebruce87m 2y ago> BYD also saw a slowdown between January and March. Did they, though? > BYD sold 300,114 EVs globally in the first three months of the year, up 13.4% YOY. In April, BYD sold another 134,465 EVs, up 17% over April 2023. Through the first four months of 2024, BYD sold 434,579 electric cars. https://electrek.co/2024/05/15/byd-just-hit-new-weekly-ev-sales-record-2024-china/#:~:text=BYD%20sold%20300%2C114%20EVs%20globally,50%25%20WOW%20to%20around%208%2C000 https://electrek.co/2024/05/15/byd-just-hit-new-weekly-ev-sa....
- ZeroGravitas 2y agoIt's a seasonal drop, here's a story from early 2023 talking about the same phenomenon. "Seasonal drop in Chinese auto sales in Jan won’t drag growth on recovery in 2023” https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202302/1285181.shtml https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202302/1285181.shtml Does the BBC writer know this and intentionally misrepresent it? Hard to say.
- thebruce87m 2y agoI suspect they know they are lying, but anti-EV articles get clicks. Look at this article from the Financial Times: https://www.ft.com/content/1f18cf1f-8b28-446a-81d2-86555f52a6e8 https://www.ft.com/content/1f18cf1f-8b28-446a-81d2-86555f52a... Headline is: > Tesla and BYD sales fall as concerns mount over electric shift From the body: > …from BYD as the world’s biggest seller of electric vehicles, after the Chinese company posted a 42 per cent fall in quarterly EV shipments to 300,114. But they are talking about a drop from a record Q4 (normally the highest quarter) to a record Q1 (normally the lowest). Not apples to apples. Q1 this year is better than last year - sales are up. The graph even shows it. Image of graph: https://ibb.co/qdDwP3V https://ibb.co/qdDwP3V Just straight up lies.
- thelastgallon 2y agoIf EV sales are slowing down, that might be only in a few countries where prices are kept artificially high. In the biggest car market, EVs are hitting sales records: https://electrek.co/2024/05/15/byd-just-hit-new-weekly-ev-sales-record-2024-china/ https://electrek.co/2024/05/15/byd-just-hit-new-weekly-ev-sa... The number of electric cars sold globally in the first three months of this year is roughly equivalent to the number sold in all of 2020. In 2024, electric cars sales in China are projected to leap to about 10 million, accounting for about 45% of all car sales in the country: https://www.iea.org/news/the-worlds-electric-car-fleet-continues-to-grow-strongly-with-2024-sales-set-to-reach-17-million https://www.iea.org/news/the-worlds-electric-car-fleet-conti...
- thelastgallon 2y agoEVs are growing everywhere, see Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023[1], slower in EU, compared to other regions. There's a reason for it. Schmidt said German sales were suffering due to subsidy cuts, and because manufacturers are deliberately holding back sales until 2025, when tougher rules on average CO2 emissions come in: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/23/electric-and-hybrid-car-sales-to-rise-to-new-global-record-in-2024 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/apr/23/electric... [1]https://rhomotion.com/news/q1-2024-over-3-million-electric-vehicles-sold-globally/ https://rhomotion.com/news/q1-2024-over-3-million-electric-v...
- friend_and_foe 2y agoI think it's like 5G. Yeah, it's running out of steam, the marginal benefit is virtually nonexistent. I personally don't want a ton of tracking and screens in my car. People want to be able to "fill up" in 10 minutes, go wherever they want, and spend less than a thousand dollars on CSR repairs to get them going again. Until that's possible, even with cheaper cars, electric cars will always be an upper middle class social signalling decision.