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I expect batteries will replace peaker plants entirely. They're superb at delivering precise on-demand power in bursts, which is exactly the role those plants u

I expect batteries will replace peaker plants entirely. They're superb at delivering precise on-demand power in bursts, which is exactly the role those plants used to fill. They also pair exceptionally well with solar power, because grid demand is highest in the few hours around sunset, and batteries can store the extra solar during the day to meter out over that peak period after the sun sets.

dachworker 2y ago
What about all the people saying that the longevity of these batteries is too short?
- hackerlight 2y ago
  Any such argument needs to accurately account for the relative ease of recycling lithium ion batteries, and the existence of batteries with significantly longer lifespans like iron air, compressed air (eg Hydroster) and pumped hydro
  - DeathArrow 2y ago
    What is the cost of recycling lithium ion, how long it takes? How much "iron air, compressed air (eg Hydroster) and pumped hydro" does cost?
  - sofixa 2y ago
    > relative ease of recycling lithium ion batteries It's so easy there are no actual working recycling facilities for lithium ion facilities. Multiple projects to do so, including two only in Sweden, but nothing in operation. So maybe it's not economically viable?
    - epistasis 2y ago
      There are functioning recycling facilities, the primary problem is the lack of input batteries to be recycled. Right now the input is mostly defective batteries from production lines. See for example Redwood Materials: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-04-18/redwood-material-s-nevada-ev-battery-recycling-facility-attempts-to-rival-china?leadSource=reddit_wall https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-04-18/redwood-m... Given the expense of shipping materials long distances, it's quite likely that recycling will be far cheaper than processing from freshly obtained materials. But it remains to be seen what innovations will happen in the mining space or in the recycling space to change that balance.
- pkulak 2y ago
  Too many new chemistries these days for that to hold true universally. Especially the sodium stuff.
- jillesvangurp 2y ago
  Such people are simply wrong/misinformed or spreading misinformation. The latter category is a significant factor as there is quite a bit of oil and gas money flowing into lobbying and misinformation campaigns. So just want to call that out as a thing. There are a lot of disingenuous voices in debates about this stuff pushing this or that agenda with fabricated horse shit. But to summarize: this is not an issue. Not even a little bit. There are no nasty surprises involving batteries suddenly not working because they flaked out after a few months/years/whatever in the grid storage industry. This simply doesn't happen. Sure, individual battery cells might fail and then they get replaced or disabled. But there is zero indication that that is in anyway a frequent thing or a big deal in the industry. Mostly all we have is success stories. New batteries get deployed. News flash! They work exactly as advertised and operators save some money. This is of course not surprising. Batteries used for grid storage are built to certain specifications. And that includes specifying how long they are expected to last (measured in charge cycles typically). So, all that is factored into the cost of the setup. Mostly all indications are that grid batteries are 1) very reliable and predictable 2) work exactly as advertised 3) might reasonably be expected to continue working quite long beyond their rated life time.
  - 3D30497420 2y ago
    Besides, it is not like alternative methods are maintenance-free. I'd also hypothesize that battery installations are less complex than, say, a gas power plant, making the maintenance easier even if there is more of it.
- magicalhippo 2y ago
  It's not like lithium-ion batteries have a fixed number of cycles. It depends heavily on how you use them. At reasonable temperatures and keeping within 30-70% SOC they last a lot, lot longer than if you use them fully or at elevated temperatures. For something like a big battery station, you can easily ensure the optimal battery conditions for long life. And then there's using alternate chemistries as mentioned.
jillesvangurp 2y ago
Yes and we've seen nothing yet on that front. It's impressive that at the current cost levels, batteries are already making a huge impact. But those cost levels are still high and there are much lower cost batteries on the way. Bigger, better, cheaper, etc. That's going to be the story with batteries for the foreseeable future. Using the same batteries as in automotive applications, as is common in the storage market right now, doesn't make any long term sense. Those are optimized for things that simply don't matter in grid storage. Like size and weight. Energy density doesn't matter for grid storage. Cost per kwh is what matters. Decimating that cost is going to drive adoption further. And who says it will stop there? Using cheaper chemistries (e.g. sodium ion, metal oxide, redux, etc.) is going to open up much more of the market. And while battery and renewables cost continues to come down; we're pretty much at the end of the road for gas plants. They've peaked technologically and they are about as efficient as they'll ever be. Worse, they might get more expensive to operate as they come under pressure to implement carbon capture. Also carbon taxes might increase the price of fuel for these plants. And of course the fluctuations in gas prices means operating gas plants becomes more risky. There are already a lot of gas plants designed for 24x7 operation just sitting there and idling until the rare moment the operators can justify the cost of firing them up. Utilization rates for these plants are dropping. That's going to have an impact on related investments and the return on those. Anyone banking on 24x7 running operations is going to be in for a nasty surprise. The article mentions a Californian plant from 2008 that has already been decommissioned. That's a great example of this. This is going to repeat across the market. Most gas plants operating today will be decommissioned long before their scheduled end of life and they won't be generating as much of a return on investment as was hoped for at the moment of their opening because of poor utilization and a shortened life span. That's going to significantly affect the interest of investors in building new gas plants. That probably already is a huge factor.
- hackerlight 2y ago
  A spanner in the works is Biden's tariffs that will hit grid storage imports from China, which is currently the large majority of deployed storage. These particular tariffs will start in 2026.
- infecto 2y ago

dachworker 2y ago

What about all the people saying that the longevity of these batteries is too short?

hackerlight 2y ago
Any such argument needs to accurately account for the relative ease of recycling lithium ion batteries, and the existence of batteries with significantly longer lifespans like iron air, compressed air (eg Hydroster) and pumped hydro
- DeathArrow 2y ago
  What is the cost of recycling lithium ion, how long it takes? How much "iron air, compressed air (eg Hydroster) and pumped hydro" does cost?
- sofixa 2y ago
  > relative ease of recycling lithium ion batteries It's so easy there are no actual working recycling facilities for lithium ion facilities. Multiple projects to do so, including two only in Sweden, but nothing in operation. So maybe it's not economically viable?
  - epistasis 2y ago
    There are functioning recycling facilities, the primary problem is the lack of input batteries to be recycled. Right now the input is mostly defective batteries from production lines. See for example Redwood Materials: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-04-18/redwood-material-s-nevada-ev-battery-recycling-facility-attempts-to-rival-china?leadSource=reddit_wall https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-04-18/redwood-m... Given the expense of shipping materials long distances, it's quite likely that recycling will be far cheaper than processing from freshly obtained materials. But it remains to be seen what innovations will happen in the mining space or in the recycling space to change that balance.
pkulak 2y ago
Too many new chemistries these days for that to hold true universally. Especially the sodium stuff.
jillesvangurp 2y ago
Such people are simply wrong/misinformed or spreading misinformation. The latter category is a significant factor as there is quite a bit of oil and gas money flowing into lobbying and misinformation campaigns. So just want to call that out as a thing. There are a lot of disingenuous voices in debates about this stuff pushing this or that agenda with fabricated horse shit. But to summarize: this is not an issue. Not even a little bit. There are no nasty surprises involving batteries suddenly not working because they flaked out after a few months/years/whatever in the grid storage industry. This simply doesn't happen. Sure, individual battery cells might fail and then they get replaced or disabled. But there is zero indication that that is in anyway a frequent thing or a big deal in the industry. Mostly all we have is success stories. New batteries get deployed. News flash! They work exactly as advertised and operators save some money. This is of course not surprising. Batteries used for grid storage are built to certain specifications. And that includes specifying how long they are expected to last (measured in charge cycles typically). So, all that is factored into the cost of the setup. Mostly all indications are that grid batteries are 1) very reliable and predictable 2) work exactly as advertised 3) might reasonably be expected to continue working quite long beyond their rated life time.
- 3D30497420 2y ago
  Besides, it is not like alternative methods are maintenance-free. I'd also hypothesize that battery installations are less complex than, say, a gas power plant, making the maintenance easier even if there is more of it.
magicalhippo 2y ago
It's not like lithium-ion batteries have a fixed number of cycles. It depends heavily on how you use them. At reasonable temperatures and keeping within 30-70% SOC they last a lot, lot longer than if you use them fully or at elevated temperatures. For something like a big battery station, you can easily ensure the optimal battery conditions for long life. And then there's using alternate chemistries as mentioned.

jillesvangurp 2y ago

Yes and we've seen nothing yet on that front. It's impressive that at the current cost levels, batteries are already making a huge impact. But those cost levels are still high and there are much lower cost batteries on the way. Bigger, better, cheaper, etc. That's going to be the story with batteries for the foreseeable future. Using the same batteries as in automotive applications, as is common in the storage market right now, doesn't make any long term sense. Those are optimized for things that simply don't matter in grid storage. Like size and weight. Energy density doesn't matter for grid storage. Cost per kwh is what matters. Decimating that cost is going to drive adoption further. And who says it will stop there? Using cheaper chemistries (e.g. sodium ion, metal oxide, redux, etc.) is going to open up much more of the market. And while battery and renewables cost continues to come down; we're pretty much at the end of the road for gas plants. They've peaked technologically and they are about as efficient as they'll ever be. Worse, they might get more expensive to operate as they come under pressure to implement carbon capture. Also carbon taxes might increase the price of fuel for these plants. And of course the fluctuations in gas prices means operating gas plants becomes more risky. There are already a lot of gas plants designed for 24x7 operation just sitting there and idling until the rare moment the operators can justify the cost of firing them up. Utilization rates for these plants are dropping. That's going to have an impact on related investments and the return on those. Anyone banking on 24x7 running operations is going to be in for a nasty surprise. The article mentions a Californian plant from 2008 that has already been decommissioned. That's a great example of this. This is going to repeat across the market. Most gas plants operating today will be decommissioned long before their scheduled end of life and they won't be generating as much of a return on investment as was hoped for at the moment of their opening because of poor utilization and a shortened life span. That's going to significantly affect the interest of investors in building new gas plants. That probably already is a huge factor.

hackerlight 2y ago
A spanner in the works is Biden's tariffs that will hit grid storage imports from China, which is currently the large majority of deployed storage. These particular tariffs will start in 2026.
infecto 2y ago