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If lack of punctuality being used as a signal causes these VCs to drop Steve Jobs or Travis Kalanick I think it's safe to say it doesn't speak volumes. Otherwi
by duggan 2y ago
If lack of punctuality being used as a signal causes these VCs to drop Steve Jobs or Travis Kalanick I think it's safe to say it doesn't speak volumes.
Otherwise you're optimizing for criteria other than "selecting whether to invest in Apple or Uber."
- s1artibartfast 2y ago>Otherwise you're optimizing for criteria other than "selecting whether to invest in Apple or Uber. They arent single-mindedly optimizing to invest in the next apple or uber at all cost! They are balancing it against the need to screen out no-name bums that look and sound the same.
- duggan 2y agoAll I'm saying is that a "screen out the bums" heuristic is also a "screen out some of the wealthiest companies to ever exist" heuristic then it's probably not rooted in anything other than vibes.
- s1artibartfast 2y agoIt is a huge amount of vibes. There is no scientific way to know the future and predict rare events. The whole VC business model isnt about having good predictions. It is about being a few percent more accurate than random chance. If you can win a coin flip 51% of the time instead of 50, you have a viable business model. Perfection isnt the goal.
- adwn 2y agoYou're only considering the false negatives while forgetting about the true negatives. VCs don't have infinite funds at their disposal; a heuristic like "being late to a meeting leads to a rejection" can be beneficial even if the false-negative-rate is non-zero.