5 ms·

Have you seen the price of housing? Mortgage payments are twice what they were in 2021 for the same house, largely due to high interest rates. Of course people

by gsk22 2y ago

Have you seen the price of housing? Mortgage payments are twice what they were in 2021 for the same house, largely due to high interest rates. Of course people want big rate cuts.

maytagrepair 2y ago
This. House prices (MSPUS) have been dropping steadily since early 2022 as a result.
- antisthenes 2y ago
  Not really. House price changes are lagging after rate cuts by about a year. Only since the 2nd half of 2023 do I see some listings have very minor price cuts and stay on the market slightly longer. Housing prices need to fall ~10% across the board before we can say the rate increases had a measurable effect. Source: I'm looking for a countryside property and scrape Redfin for a few thousand listings every day.
  - matthewdgreen 2y ago
    Housing supply is extremely constrained right now. It’s weird given that prices are so high, you’d think demand would create some more supply.
  - cableshaft 2y ago
    Yeah Zillow's estimate for my house worth only went down for a short while, and not by much. It's now going back up again (up 3% just this past month). It still thinks the house is worth 60% more than when I bought it 5 years ago. Granted this will be different depending on where you live. This chart for the median sales price of homes sold in the US[1] seems to think it's still trending slightly downward. [1]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
jnwatson 2y ago
One could make the argument that low interest rates suppressed the housing supply crisis. Housing prices around me is up 25% since 2021 and show no signs of slowing down. Interest rates aren't high by historical terms. They are about .75 points above the historical average.
- gsk22 2y ago
  Right. Housing costs for most people are a function of asking price and interest rate. For a long time, we had high asking price and low interest rate. That was mostly acceptable to people. Low asking price and high interest would probably also be acceptable. Now we have both parameters (relatively) high, which just sucks. And yeah, supply is the big constraint, no question.
legitster 2y ago
But if you cut the rate to 1%, the increase in home sales would just drive the principle up. If anything, the high rates have finally slowed the crazy housing market.

by gsk22 2y ago

Have you seen the price of housing? Mortgage payments are twice what they were in 2021 for the same house, largely due to high interest rates. Of course people want big rate cuts.

maytagrepair 2y ago

This. House prices (MSPUS) have been dropping steadily since early 2022 as a result.

antisthenes 2y ago
Not really. House price changes are lagging after rate cuts by about a year. Only since the 2nd half of 2023 do I see some listings have very minor price cuts and stay on the market slightly longer. Housing prices need to fall ~10% across the board before we can say the rate increases had a measurable effect. Source: I'm looking for a countryside property and scrape Redfin for a few thousand listings every day.
- matthewdgreen 2y ago
  Housing supply is extremely constrained right now. It’s weird given that prices are so high, you’d think demand would create some more supply.
- cableshaft 2y ago
  Yeah Zillow's estimate for my house worth only went down for a short while, and not by much. It's now going back up again (up 3% just this past month). It still thinks the house is worth 60% more than when I bought it 5 years ago. Granted this will be different depending on where you live. This chart for the median sales price of homes sold in the US[1] seems to think it's still trending slightly downward. [1]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

jnwatson 2y ago

One could make the argument that low interest rates suppressed the housing supply crisis. Housing prices around me is up 25% since 2021 and show no signs of slowing down. Interest rates aren't high by historical terms. They are about .75 points above the historical average.

gsk22 2y ago
Right. Housing costs for most people are a function of asking price and interest rate. For a long time, we had high asking price and low interest rate. That was mostly acceptable to people. Low asking price and high interest would probably also be acceptable. Now we have both parameters (relatively) high, which just sucks. And yeah, supply is the big constraint, no question.

legitster 2y ago

But if you cut the rate to 1%, the increase in home sales would just drive the principle up. If anything, the high rates have finally slowed the crazy housing market.