How much time has to pass for that statement to be believable to you? If GPT-5 isn’t out in 5 years is it still just around the corner? In that scenario, are we

How much time has to pass for that statement to be believable to you? If GPT-5 isn’t out in 5 years is it still just around the corner? In that scenario, are we still on an exponential curve of progress? I’d wager most people would agree with the premise, just disagree on the time scale needed to draw the conclusion. People can disagree without resorting to accusations of bad-faith.