2 ms·

Let's assume that mySpace is making the $25M/month speculated. At a $600M, it would take 2 years of sustained $25M months to see a return. At 100 million visit

Let's assume that mySpace is making the $25M/month speculated. At a $600M, it would take 2 years of sustained $25M months to see a return. At 100 million visitors, $25M translates to $4 a month per user in ad funds. $4, per user, per month, sustained for 24 months. Just to break even. Those are insane prices at insane growth trajectories. You can call that justification of a valuation, but I call it unsustainable speculation.

staunch 19y ago
Well if you think Murdoch made a mistake it's not surprising you think Facebook investors would be making the same one. The people who believed Google would monetize their business in a huge way seemed to do alright. I don't think Murdoch regrets his decision. I do think people should be cautious but you're going way beyond saying just that.
- run4yourlives 19y ago
  Well, although I think the mySpace deal is crazy, it's at least somewhat attainable. Murdoch has a bit of a history though of making bad moves in tech. He was nailed on Gemstar. Compared to the $11B he lost then, mySpace is peanuts. The money being talked about though for Facebook and others cannot possibly be recovered though unless a number of stars align, and that's too much for me. ;-)
  - staunch 19y ago
    http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=5899 http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=5899 Still think it's crazy?
    - deleted 19y ago
      [deleted]
    - run4yourlives 19y ago
      Yes, actually. Forecasts mean little, real numbers and perhaps I'll moderate my opinion. He's projecting 60% ish growth.
koolmoe 19y ago
"At 100 million visitors, $25M translates to $4 a month per user in ad funds. $4, per user, per month, sustained for 24 months." Unless I'm misunderstanding what you are trying to say, you're off by an order of magnitude: $25M/100M = $0.25 Maybe it's not so insane after all.

2 ms·

Let's assume that mySpace is making the $25M/month speculated. At a $600M, it would take 2 years of sustained $25M months to see a return. At 100 million visit

by run4yourlives 19y ago

staunch 19y ago
Well if you think Murdoch made a mistake it's not surprising you think Facebook investors would be making the same one. The people who believed Google would monetize their business in a huge way seemed to do alright. I don't think Murdoch regrets his decision. I do think people should be cautious but you're going way beyond saying just that.
- run4yourlives 19y ago
  Well, although I think the mySpace deal is crazy, it's at least somewhat attainable. Murdoch has a bit of a history though of making bad moves in tech. He was nailed on Gemstar. Compared to the $11B he lost then, mySpace is peanuts. The money being talked about though for Facebook and others cannot possibly be recovered though unless a number of stars align, and that's too much for me. ;-)
  - staunch 19y ago
    http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=5899 http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=5899 Still think it's crazy?
    - deleted 19y ago
      [deleted]
    - run4yourlives 19y ago
      Yes, actually. Forecasts mean little, real numbers and perhaps I'll moderate my opinion. He's projecting 60% ish growth.
koolmoe 19y ago
"At 100 million visitors, $25M translates to $4 a month per user in ad funds. $4, per user, per month, sustained for 24 months." Unless I'm misunderstanding what you are trying to say, you're off by an order of magnitude: $25M/100M = $0.25 Maybe it's not so insane after all.