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I commented on this elsewhere, but being a negative Nancy is really a winning strategy. If you’re negative and you get it wrong, nobody cares, get it and right
by piloto_ciego 2y ago
I commented on this elsewhere, but being a negative Nancy is really a winning strategy.
If you’re negative and you get it wrong, nobody cares, get it and right you look like a damn genius. Conversely, if you’re positive and get it wrong, you look like an idiot and if you’re right you’re praised for a good call once. The rational “game theory” choice is to predict calamity.
- motoxpro 2y agoYeah it’s funny that optimism in the long term is optimal and pessimism in the short term is optimal.
- piloto_ciego 2y agoRight, but I think people sometimes get the “what constitutes long term” factor a little bit wrong. I am still talking to a lot of people who say, “what can any of this AI stuff even do?” It’s like, robots you could hold a conversation with effectively didn’t exist 3 years ago and you’re already upset that it’s not a money tree? I think that peoples expectation horizon narrowing down may be the clearest evidence that we’re in the singularity.