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Remember that this is an unsolicited trial, so 2% is a very large number. If somebody signs up for a trial and only 2% of those convert, that's bad. Signing u
by bryanlarsen 3y ago
Remember that this is an unsolicited trial, so 2% is a very large number.
If somebody signs up for a trial and only 2% of those convert, that's bad. Signing up signals intent and interest.
But nobody signed up for this self-driving trial. It's like if you received a free sample in the mail, and then decided to subscribe. 0.1% would be a good conversion rate for unsolicited "free samples", 2% is really high.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago> this is an unsolicited trial, so 2% is a very large number If valid for the population of Tesla owners, it tanks the company's strategy.
- bryanlarsen 3y agoSurely most Tesla owners interested in self-driving already had it, so wouldn't be part of the trial. 2% of owners who weren't previously interested in self-driving sounds like a big number to me.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago> most Tesla owners interested in self-driving already had it Then it isn't the avenue of future growth the company is presently betting it is.
- bryanlarsen 3y agoIf 2% of people who expressly indicated a preference for not buying self-driving went ahead and bought self-driving after a demo, it indicates to me that the number in the general population is greater than 2%. Sounds like a big market to me.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago> the number in the general population is greater than 2% This is the 1% of the market fallacy: if we only take 1% of the market we’ll billionaires! The fraction of the population that might buy this may be significant. But that’s irrelevant. They must first buy a Tesla. For any financially-meaningful horizon, Tesla buyers are the market. If fewer than 2% buy, there isn’t a strategically-viable market.
- bryanlarsen 3y agoThe market is people buying new cars.