4 ms·
> There's literally no evidence that's the case, this is fear-mongering on a scale I've never seen before. To the contrary, the reaction of the world to this co
by mopsi 2y ago
> There's literally no evidence that's the case, this is fear-mongering on a scale I've never seen before. To the contrary, the reaction of the world to this conflict has already made enough of an impression on any would-be invader that it's a really bad idea to enter a conflict where the West is on the opposing side, and I am very convinced that Putin won't try his hand again.
Russia is currently forming two new armies that have a larger size than the ground forces of most European countries combined, and preparing an extensive sabotage campaign across Europe, and chiefs of European military and intelligence agencies are issuing public warnings that this is a preparation for war against the rest of Europe.
Your mistake is projecting western sensibilities upon Russians and expecting them to act within the confines of western culture. They don't care about "losing a huge market", because they are driven by ideology. The timid western response to the war has proven two very important things for them: (1) western sanctions are not enough to suffocate the ability to wage war, (2) western sanctions will not lead to unrest and instability in Russia, (3) war is a tenable (albeit slow) method of achieving their goals.
Russian conclusions from the war so far are thus completely opposite of yours. The negative consequences have been much smaller than anyone expected: the economy has not collapsed, they have not run out of weapons and manpower, they have not seen mass protests, and they continue to make progress. They have learned that they can fire missiles into Europe and kill people every day and get away with it. They even have cheerleaders in the west who demand giving Russians whatever they want to make it stop.
> If you stop the war right now, zero.
You can rest assured that it will be nowhere near zero. Should fighting on the frontlines end, Russia will redeploy resources into weeding out any opposition to Russian occupation, which in practice means an extensive campaign of terror against civilian population, going as far as forced population transfers, mass executions and other crimes against humanity, as they have done everywhere else. This is their normal modus operandi.
Russia already operates concentration camps and death squads in occupied territories, and peace on the frontline will allow them to allocate more manpower to internal security and make the campaign more intense. This is a key point that naive peace activists get wrong: peace on the frontline will not mean peace for civilians in occupied territories, instead, things will get worse. Many will perish in "filtration" camps and "cleaning" operations where squads go from house to house and kill all inhabitants.
People arguing for peace without liberation of occupied territories don't understand what they are doing; it is a position held out sheer ignorance.