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If you get off the internet you'd not even realise these tools exists though. And for the statement that all jobs will be modelled to be true, it'd have to be i

If you get off the internet you'd not even realise these tools exists though. And for the statement that all jobs will be modelled to be true, it'd have to be impacting the real world.

knallfrosch 2y ago
Capabilities aren't the problem, cultural adoption is. Just yesterday I talked to someone who still googles solutions to their Excel table woes. Didn't they know of Copilot? Maybe they didn't know, maybe none of their colleagues used it, their company didn't pay for it, or maybe all they need is an Excel update. But I am confident that using Copilot would be faster than clicking through the sludge that are Microsoft Office help pages (third party or not.) So I think it is correct to fear capabilities, even if the real world impace is still missing. When you invent an airplane, there won't be an airstrip to land on yet. Is it useless, won't it change anything?
- ben_w 2y ago
  I don't see how "failing to use the best tools available" is a relevant problem for this topic, even though it is indeed a problem in other regards.
- drawkward 2y ago
  Copilot in excel is really awful.
Cyphase 2y ago
If you get away from roads you wouldn't realize engines exist. Also, the internet is (part of) the real world.
- t4ng0pwn3d 2y ago
  Sure and there’s endless AI generated blog spam from “journalists” saying LLMs are amazing and they’re going to replace our jobs etc… but get away from the tech bubble and you’ll see we’re so far away from that. Full self driving when? Autonomous house keepers when? Even self checkout still has to have human help most of the time and didn’t reduce jobs much. Call me a skeptic but HN is way too optimistic about this stuff. Replacing all jobs except LLM developers? I’ll tell my hairdresser
  - ben_w 2y ago
    If we could predict "when", that would make the investment decisions much easier. But we do have a huge number of examples of jobs disappearing thanks to machines — even the term "computer" used to refer to a job. More recently and specifically to LLMs, such losses were already being reported around this time last year: https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-lost-in-may-because-of-ai-report-2023-6?op=1 https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-lost-in-may-because-of-...
  - ux-app 2y ago
    In a world where openAI exists, it really does require an almost breathtaking lack of imagination to be a skeptic.
    - horns4lyfe 2y ago
      Or you’ve been around the block long enough to recognize hype and know when your imagination may be wrong. Imagination isn’t infallible.
      - pixl97 2y ago
        Right, that entire internet think was complete hype, didn't go anywhere. BTW, can you fax me the menu for today? And that motorized auto transport, it never went anywhere, it required roads. I mean, who would ever think we'd cover a huge portion of our land in these straight lines. Now, don't mind me, I'm going to go saddle up the horse and hope I don't catch dysentery on the way into town.
        yjftsjthsd-h 2y ago
        I don't think anybody's denying that revolutions happen. It's just that the number of technologies that actually turned out to be revolutionary are dwarfed by the number of things that looked revolutionary and then weren't. Remember when every television was definitely going to be using glasses-free 3D? People have actually built flying cars and robot butlers, yet the Jetsons is still largely wishful thinking. The Kinect actually shipped, yet today we play games mostly with handheld controllers. AI probably has at least some substance, but there's a non-zero amount of hype too. I don't think either extreme of outcome is a foregone conclusion.
ben_w 2y ago
Is it even possible to "get off the internet" without also leaving civilisation in general at this point? > it'd have to be impacting the real world By writing business plans? Getting lawyers punished because they didn't realise that "passes bar exam" isn't the same as "can be relied on for citations"? By defrauding people with synthesised conversations using stolen voices? By automating and personalising propaganda? Or does it only count when it's guiding a robot that's not merely a tech demo?
- t4ng0pwn3d 2y ago
  I’ll be worried about jobs being removed entirely by LLMs when I see something outside of the tech bubble genuinely having been removed by one - has there been any real cases of this? It seems like hyperbole. Most people in the world don’t even know this exists. Comparing it to the internet is insane, based off of its status as a highly advanced auto complete.
  - ben_w 2y ago
    > has there been any real cases of this? Apparently so: https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-lost-in-may-because-of-ai-report-2023-6?op=1 https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-lost-in-may-because-of-... Note that this article is about a year old now. > Comparing it to the internet is insane, based off of its status as a highly advanced auto complete. (1) I was quoting you. (2) Don't you get some cognitive dissonance dismissing it in those terms, at this point? "Fancy auto complete" was valid for half the models before InstructGPT, as that's all the early models were even trying to be… but now? The phrase doesn't fit so well when it's multimodal and can describe what it's seeing or hearing and create new images and respond with speech, all as a single unified model, any more than dismissing a bee brain as "just chemistry" or a human as "just an animal".
  - etherlord 2y ago
    800 million dollar studio expansion halted - https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/feb/23/tyler-perry-halts-800m-studio-expansion-after-being-shocked-by-ai https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/feb/23/tyler-per...

If you get off the internet you'd not even realise these tools exists though. And for the statement that all jobs will be modelled to be true, it'd have to be impacting the real world.

knallfrosch 2y ago

Capabilities aren't the problem, cultural adoption is. Just yesterday I talked to someone who still googles solutions to their Excel table woes. Didn't they know of Copilot? Maybe they didn't know, maybe none of their colleagues used it, their company didn't pay for it, or maybe all they need is an Excel update. But I am confident that using Copilot would be faster than clicking through the sludge that are Microsoft Office help pages (third party or not.) So I think it is correct to fear capabilities, even if the real world impace is still missing. When you invent an airplane, there won't be an airstrip to land on yet. Is it useless, won't it change anything?

ben_w 2y ago
I don't see how "failing to use the best tools available" is a relevant problem for this topic, even though it is indeed a problem in other regards.
drawkward 2y ago
Copilot in excel is really awful.

Cyphase 2y ago

If you get away from roads you wouldn't realize engines exist. Also, the internet is (part of) the real world.

t4ng0pwn3d 2y ago
Sure and there’s endless AI generated blog spam from “journalists” saying LLMs are amazing and they’re going to replace our jobs etc… but get away from the tech bubble and you’ll see we’re so far away from that. Full self driving when? Autonomous house keepers when? Even self checkout still has to have human help most of the time and didn’t reduce jobs much. Call me a skeptic but HN is way too optimistic about this stuff. Replacing all jobs except LLM developers? I’ll tell my hairdresser
- ben_w 2y ago
  If we could predict "when", that would make the investment decisions much easier. But we do have a huge number of examples of jobs disappearing thanks to machines — even the term "computer" used to refer to a job. More recently and specifically to LLMs, such losses were already being reported around this time last year: https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-lost-in-may-because-of-ai-report-2023-6?op=1 https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-lost-in-may-because-of-...
- ux-app 2y ago
  In a world where openAI exists, it really does require an almost breathtaking lack of imagination to be a skeptic.
  - horns4lyfe 2y ago
    Or you’ve been around the block long enough to recognize hype and know when your imagination may be wrong. Imagination isn’t infallible.
    - pixl97 2y ago
      Right, that entire internet think was complete hype, didn't go anywhere. BTW, can you fax me the menu for today? And that motorized auto transport, it never went anywhere, it required roads. I mean, who would ever think we'd cover a huge portion of our land in these straight lines. Now, don't mind me, I'm going to go saddle up the horse and hope I don't catch dysentery on the way into town.
      - yjftsjthsd-h 2y ago
        I don't think anybody's denying that revolutions happen. It's just that the number of technologies that actually turned out to be revolutionary are dwarfed by the number of things that looked revolutionary and then weren't. Remember when every television was definitely going to be using glasses-free 3D? People have actually built flying cars and robot butlers, yet the Jetsons is still largely wishful thinking. The Kinect actually shipped, yet today we play games mostly with handheld controllers. AI probably has at least some substance, but there's a non-zero amount of hype too. I don't think either extreme of outcome is a foregone conclusion.

ben_w 2y ago

Is it even possible to "get off the internet" without also leaving civilisation in general at this point? > it'd have to be impacting the real world By writing business plans? Getting lawyers punished because they didn't realise that "passes bar exam" isn't the same as "can be relied on for citations"? By defrauding people with synthesised conversations using stolen voices? By automating and personalising propaganda? Or does it only count when it's guiding a robot that's not merely a tech demo?

t4ng0pwn3d 2y ago
I’ll be worried about jobs being removed entirely by LLMs when I see something outside of the tech bubble genuinely having been removed by one - has there been any real cases of this? It seems like hyperbole. Most people in the world don’t even know this exists. Comparing it to the internet is insane, based off of its status as a highly advanced auto complete.
- ben_w 2y ago
  > has there been any real cases of this? Apparently so: https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-lost-in-may-because-of-ai-report-2023-6?op=1 https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-lost-in-may-because-of-... Note that this article is about a year old now. > Comparing it to the internet is insane, based off of its status as a highly advanced auto complete. (1) I was quoting you. (2) Don't you get some cognitive dissonance dismissing it in those terms, at this point? "Fancy auto complete" was valid for half the models before InstructGPT, as that's all the early models were even trying to be… but now? The phrase doesn't fit so well when it's multimodal and can describe what it's seeing or hearing and create new images and respond with speech, all as a single unified model, any more than dismissing a bee brain as "just chemistry" or a human as "just an animal".
- etherlord 2y ago
  800 million dollar studio expansion halted - https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/feb/23/tyler-perry-halts-800m-studio-expansion-after-being-shocked-by-ai https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/feb/23/tyler-per...