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Chalmers: "GPT-5? A vastly-improved model that somehow reduces the compute overhead while providing better answers with the same hardware architecture? At this
by talldayo 3y ago
Chalmers: "GPT-5? A vastly-improved model that somehow reduces the compute overhead while providing better answers with the same hardware architecture? At this time of year? In this kind of market?"
Skinner: "Yes."
Chalmers: "May I see it?"
Skinner: "No."
- pwdisswordfishc 3y agoIncidentally, this dialogue works equally well, if not better, with David Chalmers versus B.F. Skinner, as with the Simpsons characters.
- AaronFriel 3y agoIt has only been a little over one year since GPT-4 was announced, and it was at the time the largest and most expensive model ever trained. It might still be. Perhaps it's worth taking a beat and looking at the incredible progress in that year, and acknowledge that whatever's next is probably "still cooking". Even Meta is still baking their 400B parameter model.
- bamboozled 3y agoLegit love progress
- 1024core 3y agoAs Altman said (paraphrasing): GPT-4 is the _worst_ model you will ever have to deal with in your life (or something to that effect).
- andrepd 2y agoI will believe it when I see it. People like to point at the first part of a logistic curve and go "behold! an exponential".
- nwienert 2y agoAh yes my favorite was the early covid numbers, some of the "smartest" people in the SF techie scene were daily on Facebook thought-leadering about how 40% of people were about to die in the likely case.
- noSyncCloud 2y agoLet's be honest, everyone was speculating. Nobody knew what the future would bring, not even you.
- nwienert 2y agoThe difference is some people were talking a whole lot confidently, and some weren’t.
- tiptup300 2y agoand boy did the stockholders like that one.
- dyauspitr 2y agoWhat stockholders. They’re investors at this point. I wish I could get in on it.
- talldayo 2y agoThey're rollercoaster riders, being told lusterous stories by gold-panners while the shovel salesman counts his money and leaves.
- dyauspitr 2y agoThere are no shovels or shovel sellers. It’s heavily accredited investors with millions of dollars buying in. It’s way above our pay grade, our pleb sayings don’t apply.
- dvfjsdhgfv 2y agoWhy should I believe anything he says?
- markk 2y agoI found this statement by Sam quite amusing. It transmits exactly zero information (it's a given that models will improve over time), yet it sounds profound and ambitious.
- ripper1138 2y agoI got the same vibe from him on the All In podcast. For every question, he would answer with a vaguely profound statement, talking in circles without really saying anything. On multiple occasions he would answer like 'In some ways yes, in some ways no...' and then just change the subject.
- markk 2y agoYep. I'm not quite sure what he's up to. He takes all these interviews and basically says nothing. What's his objective? My guess is he wants OpenAI to become a household name, and so he optimizes for exposure.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- famouswaffles 3y agoGPT-3 was released in 2020 and GPT-4 in 2023. Now we all expect 5 sooner than that but you're acting like we've been waiting years lol.
- skepticATX 3y agoThe increased expectations are a direct result of LLM proponents continually hyping exponential capabilities increase.
- famouswaffles 3y agoThe time for the research, training, testing and deploying of a new model at frontier scales doesn't change depending on how hyped the technology is. I just think the comment i was replying to lacks perspective.
- Sharlin 3y agoPeople who buy into hype deserve to be disappointed. Or burned, as the case may be.
- throwthrowuknow 2y agoSo if not exponential, what would you call adding voice and image recognition, function calling, greatly increased token generation speed, reduced cost, massive context window increases and then shortly after combining all of that in a truly multi modal model that is even faster and cheaper while adding emotional range and singing in… checks notes …14 months?! Not to mention creating and improving an API, mobile apps, a marketplace and now a desktop app. OpenAI ships and they are doing so in a way that makes a lot of business sense (continue to deliver while reducing cost). Even if they didn’t have another flagship model in their back pocket I’d be happy with this rate of improvement but they are obviously about to launch another one given the teasers Mira keeps dropping.
- skepticATX 2y agoAll of that is awesome, and makes for a better product. But it’s also primarily an engineering effort. What matters here is an increase in intelligence. And we’re not seeing that aside from very minor capability increases. We’ll see if they have another flagship model ready to launch. I seriously doubt it. I suspect that this was supposed to be called GPT-5, or at the very least GPT-4.5, but they can’t meet expectations so they can’t use those names.
- dlivingston 3y ago"Seymour, the house is on fire!" "No, mother, that's just the H100s."
- dialup_sounds 2y agoAgnes (voice): "SEYMOUR, THE HOUSE IS ON FIRE!" Skinner (looking up): No, mother, it's just the Nvidia GPUs.
- dialup_sounds 2y agoAgnes (voice): "SEYMOUR, THE HOUSE IS ON FIRE!" Skinner (looking up): "No, mother, it's just the Nvidia GPUs."