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You are creating a false dichotomy. Very few people are saying there are no benefits, but many have reasonable concerns both about the current efficacy of these
by thefaux 2y ago
You are creating a false dichotomy. Very few people are saying there are no benefits, but many have reasonable concerns both about the current efficacy of these tools as well as the expectation of continued exponential growth which is driving much of the current hype.
What if we have already passed the inflection point where the exponential growth transitions to an s-curve? That would mean that this technology on its own would only get marginally better than is today. Maybe 2, 4 or even 10x better than it is today, but not 100x or 1000x. To break those barriers, we would need further innovations beyond just throwing more gpus and training data at the problem.
I personally am short on LLMs because I believe it is much more likely that we have already crossed the inflection point or will soon. Again, they are impressive but ultimately I think that LLMs will be at best a footnote in history if they are even remembered at all in a few hundred years. But of course I could be wrong.
- simonw 2y agoI've been generally staying away from the whole "imagine what this stuff could do next!" side of the discourse. My personal opinion there is that if all research froze today it would still take us years to figure out all of the potential use-cases and applications for the models we have access to right now, and how best to apply them.