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doesn't this assume they all vote as single block? if their vote is diverse then it won't make much difference

by nox101 2y ago

qnleigh 2y ago
No. Political parties change their behavior to capture voting demographics. Right now politicians aren't motivated to win the young vote because we vote less.
- ncgl 2y ago
  Great point
- voisin 2y ago
  Is there actual evidence of this occurring or is it just a hypothesis? I can’t recall offhand significant policy changes to capture voting demographics.
  - ryandrake 2y ago
    Maybe because voting demographics change so slowly, policy changes slowly too. Thirty years ago, when I was still in K-12 school, Baby Boomers were the largest generational voting bloc in the USA, and they still are. With a few exceptions that the rest of us are grateful for, it's been politically status-quo for pretty much my entire life.
    - voisin 2y ago
      Right, but I think you are making my point. Despite the boomers dominating for decades, we’ve seen the GOP swing far right relative to the 70s/80s. For example, Nixon massively expanded the Clean Air Act and enacted the Clean Water Act, which never would never have happened with the GOP in the last 30 years.
dubcee349 2y ago
Younger voters tend to blue. Approximately half (53%) of young Americans indicate they will "definitely be voting" in the 2024 general election for president. Young Americans' interest in voting in 2024 is now on par with Harvard Youth Poll data from 2020, which indicated that 54% would likely vote. If the presidential election were held today, President Biden would outperform former President Trump among both registered (50% Biden, 37% Trump) and likely young voters under 30 (56% Biden, 37% Trump). When there is no voter screen (i.e., all young adults 18-29), the race narrows to single digits, 45% for President Biden, 37% for former President Trump, with 16 percent undecided. Among the 1,051 "likely voters" in our sample, we found significant differences in support levels based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, and education levels, among other subgroups. For example, among likely young voters: President Biden's lead among young men is six points; among young women his lead is 33 points; President Biden's lead among 18-24 year-olds is 14 points, and among 25-29 year-olds it is 26 points; President Biden's lead among white voters is 3 points; among non-white voters his lead is 43 points; President Biden's lead among college students is 23 points; he leads by 47 points among college graduates. The race is even among those not in college and without a four-year degree. https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/47th-edition-spring-2024 https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/47th-edition-spring-2024
- rayiner 2y ago
  Those numbers show that while the half of young people who are likely voters favor democrats, the other half of young people who don’t plan to vote must be split evenly between Biden and Trump. (For the overall average to be 45% Biden, the half that doesn’t plan to vote must be under 40% Biden to 37% Trump, with a large share probably supporting RFK Jr.) That seems to support OP’s point. If you got that other half of young people to vote, they’d have very little effect on the election because they’re evenly split. Neither party has any reason to try and turn out those young voters.

doesn't this assume they all vote as single block? if their vote is diverse then it won't make much difference

by nox101 2y ago

doesn't this assume they all vote as single block? if their vote is diverse then it won't make much difference

No. Political parties change their behavior to capture voting demographics. Right now politicians aren't motivated to win the young vote because we vote less.

ncgl 2y ago
Great point
voisin 2y ago
Is there actual evidence of this occurring or is it just a hypothesis? I can’t recall offhand significant policy changes to capture voting demographics.
- ryandrake 2y ago
  Maybe because voting demographics change so slowly, policy changes slowly too. Thirty years ago, when I was still in K-12 school, Baby Boomers were the largest generational voting bloc in the USA, and they still are. With a few exceptions that the rest of us are grateful for, it's been politically status-quo for pretty much my entire life.
  - voisin 2y ago
    Right, but I think you are making my point. Despite the boomers dominating for decades, we’ve seen the GOP swing far right relative to the 70s/80s. For example, Nixon massively expanded the Clean Air Act and enacted the Clean Water Act, which never would never have happened with the GOP in the last 30 years.

dubcee349 2y ago

Younger voters tend to blue. Approximately half (53%) of young Americans indicate they will "definitely be voting" in the 2024 general election for president. Young Americans' interest in voting in 2024 is now on par with Harvard Youth Poll data from 2020, which indicated that 54% would likely vote. If the presidential election were held today, President Biden would outperform former President Trump among both registered (50% Biden, 37% Trump) and likely young voters under 30 (56% Biden, 37% Trump). When there is no voter screen (i.e., all young adults 18-29), the race narrows to single digits, 45% for President Biden, 37% for former President Trump, with 16 percent undecided. Among the 1,051 "likely voters" in our sample, we found significant differences in support levels based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, and education levels, among other subgroups. For example, among likely young voters: President Biden's lead among young men is six points; among young women his lead is 33 points; President Biden's lead among 18-24 year-olds is 14 points, and among 25-29 year-olds it is 26 points; President Biden's lead among white voters is 3 points; among non-white voters his lead is 43 points; President Biden's lead among college students is 23 points; he leads by 47 points among college graduates. The race is even among those not in college and without a four-year degree. https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/47th-edition-spring-2024 https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/47th-edition-spring-2024

rayiner 2y ago
Those numbers show that while the half of young people who are likely voters favor democrats, the other half of young people who don’t plan to vote must be split evenly between Biden and Trump. (For the overall average to be 45% Biden, the half that doesn’t plan to vote must be under 40% Biden to 37% Trump, with a large share probably supporting RFK Jr.) That seems to support OP’s point. If you got that other half of young people to vote, they’d have very little effect on the election because they’re evenly split. Neither party has any reason to try and turn out those young voters.