4 ms·

Worst case would just look like what happened anyway. Best case is no wars in 2014 and 2022 and hundreds of thousands of lives saved.

by ajuc 2y ago

racional 2y ago
Disagree as to worst case. We just don't know how the Yushchenko government (let alone whoever his successor may have been after 2010) would have handled the situation. And without sufficient time to integrate properly -- the accession would have been essentially a bluff, and interpreted by Putin (though his sockpuppet Medvedev, if the latter was still in place) accordingly. Had he full-on invaded shortly thereafter -- Ukraine definitely would not have fared as well as it did in 2022 (due to the partial state of integration, and the fact that didn't have the 8 years of invaluable training in the field that it had by 2022). Even if it was a clusterfuck operation like the initial SMO. Recall how quickly the Crimea defense fell apart in 2014 (for the simple reason it was entirely unprepared). Tactical nuke risk would have been significantly higher if NATO units were involved, especially if they were blitzkrieging. One can see many scenarios unfolding - many of them quite bad.
- ajuc 2y ago
  It was 2008. Back then Russia had problems conquering Georgia (and backed off when 3 EU politicians flew to Tbilisi during the war). Even in 2014 with all the corruption in Ukrainian army and all the preparations (remember that Yanukovych was blackmailed by Putin in 2013 to stop the EU agreement according to a parliament member from his party) - so Putin had prepared for at least 1 year - once Ukraine started the ATO (anti-terrorist operation) - they quickly regained several territories till Russia sent another wave of "volunteers" in "nothern wind" operation. It's very unlikely Russia would be able to do anything quickly in 2008 that would be anywhere close to what it did with year of advance planning in 2014. And it's very, very unlikely that it would have ended up worse for Ukraine somehow. IMHO Russia would just do nothing, cause the risk/effect calculation would be much worse for them had Ukraine already be in NATO. It's time to accept that the west fucked up in 2008.
  - racional 2y ago
    I thank what matters now is what the West does now, and in the upcoming years. Other than that we seem to be broadly on the same page. I appreciate your robust counterpoints to the misinformation that gets continually posted here.

Worst case would just look like what happened anyway. Best case is no wars in 2014 and 2022 and hundreds of thousands of lives saved.

by ajuc 2y ago

Worst case would just look like what happened anyway. Best case is no wars in 2014 and 2022 and hundreds of thousands of lives saved.

racional 2y ago

Disagree as to worst case. We just don't know how the Yushchenko government (let alone whoever his successor may have been after 2010) would have handled the situation. And without sufficient time to integrate properly -- the accession would have been essentially a bluff, and interpreted by Putin (though his sockpuppet Medvedev, if the latter was still in place) accordingly. Had he full-on invaded shortly thereafter -- Ukraine definitely would not have fared as well as it did in 2022 (due to the partial state of integration, and the fact that didn't have the 8 years of invaluable training in the field that it had by 2022). Even if it was a clusterfuck operation like the initial SMO. Recall how quickly the Crimea defense fell apart in 2014 (for the simple reason it was entirely unprepared). Tactical nuke risk would have been significantly higher if NATO units were involved, especially if they were blitzkrieging. One can see many scenarios unfolding - many of them quite bad.

ajuc 2y ago
It was 2008. Back then Russia had problems conquering Georgia (and backed off when 3 EU politicians flew to Tbilisi during the war). Even in 2014 with all the corruption in Ukrainian army and all the preparations (remember that Yanukovych was blackmailed by Putin in 2013 to stop the EU agreement according to a parliament member from his party) - so Putin had prepared for at least 1 year - once Ukraine started the ATO (anti-terrorist operation) - they quickly regained several territories till Russia sent another wave of "volunteers" in "nothern wind" operation. It's very unlikely Russia would be able to do anything quickly in 2008 that would be anywhere close to what it did with year of advance planning in 2014. And it's very, very unlikely that it would have ended up worse for Ukraine somehow. IMHO Russia would just do nothing, cause the risk/effect calculation would be much worse for them had Ukraine already be in NATO. It's time to accept that the west fucked up in 2008.
- racional 2y ago
  I thank what matters now is what the West does now, and in the upcoming years. Other than that we seem to be broadly on the same page. I appreciate your robust counterpoints to the misinformation that gets continually posted here.