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Does this prediction include the effect of cost and time overruns? These overruns are mentioned in the article, but then not dealt with at all -- but it is very
by moring 2y ago
Does this prediction include the effect of cost and time overruns? These overruns are mentioned in the article, but then not dealt with at all -- but it is very important whether SMRs are more expensive according to made-up "planned" numbers or actual costs.
Flyvbjerg mentions SMRs as an example for modularity in his book, How Big Things Get Done, and predicts that they will be much less prone to overruns because experience can be accumulated along a series of reactors, whereas traditional reactors are one-off, bespoke projects which directly implies that they will be built with a lack of experience. Even if a nuclear power plant gets built that is "like" an existing one, it is never the same.
- pfdietz 2y agoIf the overruns are due to salesmanship and lowballing, not unforeseeable problems, then one can expect SMRs to be subject to them just like traditional nuclear. This was the UAMPS/NuScale experience.
- masklinn 2y ago> traditional reactors are one-off, bespoke projects TBF they don't have to be, obviously they don't number in the hundreds and site-specific concerns matter (especially as they have a large surface, they matter for SMRs too but the footprint means they matter a lot less). However you have to commit, hard. During its buildup, France built 54 reactors of just two classes (34 C-class, with 3 variants, and 20 P-class, with 2 variants) in 22 years: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_des_réacteurs_nucléaires_en_France#/media/Fichier:Chrono-parc-nucleaire-francais.svg https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_des_réacteurs_nucléaires...