I think these scenarios are compatible if we view LLMs as "fragile reasoners": they can occasionally reason, but it is an intermittent state that is easily dist

I think these scenarios are compatible if we view LLMs as "fragile reasoners": they can occasionally reason, but it is an intermittent state that is easily disturbed. In such a world, we would expect to see that people who want LLMs to work can make them work with difficulty, and people who want or expect LLMs to fail can make them fail easily - or rather, maybe less adversarially phrased, one can generate examples of either outcome.