6 ms·

The doomsayers waiting for the economy to crash

21 points by saq7 2y ago

Paulrer 2y ago
[flagged]
pinewurst 2y ago
https://archive.ph/ASTYl https://archive.ph/ASTYl
steelframe 2y ago
I honestly don't remember how much I "lost" October 6–10, 2008 or February 24–28, 2020. I certainly won't remember how much I "lose" in the next crash. What I do know is how many shares I still hold of a broad range of companies with a track record for growth today and how much they've collectively risen in value between October 5, 2008 and May 11, 2024.
- solumunus 2y ago
  In a historically unprecedented bull market juiced by low interest rates and quantitative easing.. What’s your point, that crashes are weak sauce? Look at historic charts and find examples of crashes that precede decade plus periods without being back in black. Unless you’re old it’s almost inevitable that at some point you’ll have your cash to remember.
  - jmathai 2y ago
    I think the point OP was making that you can look at the economy over any 10 year period and it will have grown. That crashes are mere blips.
    - kleene_op 2y ago
      What about the lost decade of the 2000s?
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
    - solumunus 2y ago
      You’re incorrectly conflating the economy with the stock market. Ignoring that, OP was very clearly talking about their portfolio returns. There are many historic examples of 10 year periods in equities markets where you would have broke even or lost money.
thegrim33 2y ago
One of the millions of ways you grow wiser as you grow older is from collecting more data. You get a first hand view of decades and decades of fear mongering and people saying some catastrophe is right around the corner. You see that over all those years, 999 times out of 1000 nothing ever happened. Yes, sometimes catastrophe does indeed happen, and yes, you should be responsibly prepared for it when it eventually occurs, and I am. But I wonder how strong of a correlation there is between age and people with severe beliefs along these lines. It's infinitely worse now, of course, as with the internet and mass media these ideas are effectively viral memes that can reach and swarm the population quickly and easily. Even worse, a lot of it is intentional and adversarial - if you wanted to destroy a country's economy, it would be an extremely cost effective strategy to simply flood the country's internet with doomer posts about their economy, about their country, get the citizens fear riddled and have them lose faith in their country. Never have to fire a single bullet.
- squigz 2y ago
  The "problem" with doomers is that they offer no nuance. Almost all of the issues people talk about are real issues we should be taking action on. But when assertions like "climate change is going to kill us all" are thrown around, it leaves very little room for actual change, and effectively demoralizes other people.
  - m463 2y ago
    I think this goes for much internet advice. "Your partner leaves hairs in the sink? Leave the relationship now!" Maybe a better way to address things is to have an objective list of trouble signs, and let people make up their mind from that. Maybe being able to apply this to old problems will help.
  - jamil7 2y ago
    It’s because it’s an easier and more comfortable place to be. You don’t have to do anything if you don’t have a horse in the race. Changing habits, educating yourself, demonstrating, joining a party etc. all take time and effort. It’s a lot simpler to just throw your hands up and say nothing works, we’re all doomed.
jmathai 2y ago
If you follow some basic rules, you don’t have to worry about economic fluctuations or crashes. 1) Save diligently. 2) Think in terms of 5 or 10 years. 3) Have sufficient cash accessible for emergencies. 4) Do not over leverage yourself such that a job loss or housing crash will immediately crush you. 5) Diversify your assets sufficiently. Don’t have all your money in your company’s stock.
- blitzar 2y ago
  5 tips to survive on a 7 figure salary.
  - baobun 2y ago
    This is perfectly applicable for 5 figures.
    - blamestross 2y ago
      I don't think any of these things are viable on the lower end of 5 figures. People aren't realizing just how financially tight and desperate poorer people are getting right now
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
      - flappyeagle 2y ago
        Are you saying people making 5 figures should not follow this advice?
        FooBarBizBazz 2y ago
        They can't do (1) because they don't have extra to save. Maybe (2) is doable, but it's hard when you're worrying about next week. (3) is basically the same as (1). I'm not sure about (4). Your choice is between throwing money away on rent, and being house-poor, overleveraged on a house. Again, you can't do (5) when the only asset you have (and can just barely hang on to) is a house. And most people sure as hell don't get equity from their employer. So, sure, if you're a typical tech worker making $200k+ with some stock options -- which probably does characterize a substantial fraction of people here -- then the advice is very reasonable. Yes, "seven figures" is an overstatement. But a ton of people make nowhere near this. I think the advice for lower incomes needs to be about (a) increasing skills/qualifications/income (but choosing education wisely), and (b) pooling resources with roommates/family to reduce expenses.
trickleup 2y ago
Interesting little observation (take from it what you will) If you search youtube for "2024 financial crash" you will hit quite a few results If you search youtube for "2023 financial crash" you won't find anything, they delete them all NYD 2024
- antifa 2y ago
  Have you considered using the YouTube API to track these videos/channels while they are up (download the json, thumbs, transcript, maybe even whole video), check yt IDs daily/weekly to track video/channel deletions? The data dump might make an interesting info graphic, or be used to expose a grifter, or a ring of shill accounts.
RecycledEle 2y ago
"Doomsayers"?? Optimists invest in stocks. Pessimists invest in bonds. I invest in beans, bullets, blankets, and bandages.
throwaway22032 2y ago
The thing is that the economy in the West hasn't actually "crashed" in any meaningful way in my lifetime. Maybe during Covid, kind of, when we had supply chain issues for a bit? A lot of that was self inflicted too. A crash to me is like, I wake up, £1 is worth 50p and in one fell swoop I'm significantly net negative every month. Or like, the supermarkets start closing down, there's no fuel left in the petrol stations, etc. A crash is not - things cost 5%, 10% more over a period of months, and it's a bit harder to find a job. I grew up without even getting pocket money, I have a "reverse inheritance" e.g. I pay my parents on occasion, the memetic idea that everyone who isn't underwater comes from Big Money(tm) just seems like self destructive behaviour to me. I just don't identify with the mindset. My feeling is that most people prioritise other things over their financial wellbeing because they think that's "normal" or whatever. All you need to do to almost completely immunise yourself against this stuff is to spend, say, 70-80% of what you earn, less if that's viable. There is someone out there already, in your town, who earns about 70-80% of what you do, so just live like them.
- brokenmachine 2y ago
  >I wake up, £1 is worth 50p >things cost 5%, 10% more over a period of months In a 6 month period, these are the same.
- constantcrying 2y ago
  >A crash is not - things cost 5%, 10% more over a period of months, and it's a bit harder to find a job. A crash is when this continually happens. >All you need to do to almost completely immunise yourself against this stuff is to spend, say, 70-80% of what you earn, less if that's viable. And do what with that money?

21 points by saq7 2y ago

Paulrer 2y ago

[flagged]

pinewurst 2y ago

https://archive.ph/ASTYl https://archive.ph/ASTYl

steelframe 2y ago

I honestly don't remember how much I "lost" October 6–10, 2008 or February 24–28, 2020. I certainly won't remember how much I "lose" in the next crash. What I do know is how many shares I still hold of a broad range of companies with a track record for growth today and how much they've collectively risen in value between October 5, 2008 and May 11, 2024.

solumunus 2y ago
In a historically unprecedented bull market juiced by low interest rates and quantitative easing.. What’s your point, that crashes are weak sauce? Look at historic charts and find examples of crashes that precede decade plus periods without being back in black. Unless you’re old it’s almost inevitable that at some point you’ll have your cash to remember.
- jmathai 2y ago
  I think the point OP was making that you can look at the economy over any 10 year period and it will have grown. That crashes are mere blips.
  - kleene_op 2y ago
    What about the lost decade of the 2000s?
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
  - solumunus 2y ago
    You’re incorrectly conflating the economy with the stock market. Ignoring that, OP was very clearly talking about their portfolio returns. There are many historic examples of 10 year periods in equities markets where you would have broke even or lost money.

thegrim33 2y ago

One of the millions of ways you grow wiser as you grow older is from collecting more data. You get a first hand view of decades and decades of fear mongering and people saying some catastrophe is right around the corner. You see that over all those years, 999 times out of 1000 nothing ever happened. Yes, sometimes catastrophe does indeed happen, and yes, you should be responsibly prepared for it when it eventually occurs, and I am. But I wonder how strong of a correlation there is between age and people with severe beliefs along these lines. It's infinitely worse now, of course, as with the internet and mass media these ideas are effectively viral memes that can reach and swarm the population quickly and easily. Even worse, a lot of it is intentional and adversarial - if you wanted to destroy a country's economy, it would be an extremely cost effective strategy to simply flood the country's internet with doomer posts about their economy, about their country, get the citizens fear riddled and have them lose faith in their country. Never have to fire a single bullet.

squigz 2y ago
The "problem" with doomers is that they offer no nuance. Almost all of the issues people talk about are real issues we should be taking action on. But when assertions like "climate change is going to kill us all" are thrown around, it leaves very little room for actual change, and effectively demoralizes other people.
- m463 2y ago
  I think this goes for much internet advice. "Your partner leaves hairs in the sink? Leave the relationship now!" Maybe a better way to address things is to have an objective list of trouble signs, and let people make up their mind from that. Maybe being able to apply this to old problems will help.
- jamil7 2y ago
  It’s because it’s an easier and more comfortable place to be. You don’t have to do anything if you don’t have a horse in the race. Changing habits, educating yourself, demonstrating, joining a party etc. all take time and effort. It’s a lot simpler to just throw your hands up and say nothing works, we’re all doomed.

jmathai 2y ago

If you follow some basic rules, you don’t have to worry about economic fluctuations or crashes. 1) Save diligently. 2) Think in terms of 5 or 10 years. 3) Have sufficient cash accessible for emergencies. 4) Do not over leverage yourself such that a job loss or housing crash will immediately crush you. 5) Diversify your assets sufficiently. Don’t have all your money in your company’s stock.

blitzar 2y ago
5 tips to survive on a 7 figure salary.
- baobun 2y ago
  This is perfectly applicable for 5 figures.
  - blamestross 2y ago
    I don't think any of these things are viable on the lower end of 5 figures. People aren't realizing just how financially tight and desperate poorer people are getting right now
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - flappyeagle 2y ago
      Are you saying people making 5 figures should not follow this advice?
      - FooBarBizBazz 2y ago
        They can't do (1) because they don't have extra to save. Maybe (2) is doable, but it's hard when you're worrying about next week. (3) is basically the same as (1). I'm not sure about (4). Your choice is between throwing money away on rent, and being house-poor, overleveraged on a house. Again, you can't do (5) when the only asset you have (and can just barely hang on to) is a house. And most people sure as hell don't get equity from their employer. So, sure, if you're a typical tech worker making $200k+ with some stock options -- which probably does characterize a substantial fraction of people here -- then the advice is very reasonable. Yes, "seven figures" is an overstatement. But a ton of people make nowhere near this. I think the advice for lower incomes needs to be about (a) increasing skills/qualifications/income (but choosing education wisely), and (b) pooling resources with roommates/family to reduce expenses.

trickleup 2y ago

Interesting little observation (take from it what you will) If you search youtube for "2024 financial crash" you will hit quite a few results If you search youtube for "2023 financial crash" you won't find anything, they delete them all NYD 2024

antifa 2y ago
Have you considered using the YouTube API to track these videos/channels while they are up (download the json, thumbs, transcript, maybe even whole video), check yt IDs daily/weekly to track video/channel deletions? The data dump might make an interesting info graphic, or be used to expose a grifter, or a ring of shill accounts.

RecycledEle 2y ago

"Doomsayers"?? Optimists invest in stocks. Pessimists invest in bonds. I invest in beans, bullets, blankets, and bandages.

throwaway22032 2y ago

The thing is that the economy in the West hasn't actually "crashed" in any meaningful way in my lifetime. Maybe during Covid, kind of, when we had supply chain issues for a bit? A lot of that was self inflicted too. A crash to me is like, I wake up, £1 is worth 50p and in one fell swoop I'm significantly net negative every month. Or like, the supermarkets start closing down, there's no fuel left in the petrol stations, etc. A crash is not - things cost 5%, 10% more over a period of months, and it's a bit harder to find a job. I grew up without even getting pocket money, I have a "reverse inheritance" e.g. I pay my parents on occasion, the memetic idea that everyone who isn't underwater comes from Big Money(tm) just seems like self destructive behaviour to me. I just don't identify with the mindset. My feeling is that most people prioritise other things over their financial wellbeing because they think that's "normal" or whatever. All you need to do to almost completely immunise yourself against this stuff is to spend, say, 70-80% of what you earn, less if that's viable. There is someone out there already, in your town, who earns about 70-80% of what you do, so just live like them.

brokenmachine 2y ago
>I wake up, £1 is worth 50p >things cost 5%, 10% more over a period of months In a 6 month period, these are the same.
constantcrying 2y ago
>A crash is not - things cost 5%, 10% more over a period of months, and it's a bit harder to find a job. A crash is when this continually happens. >All you need to do to almost completely immunise yourself against this stuff is to spend, say, 70-80% of what you earn, less if that's viable. And do what with that money?