4 ms·

While the photos of the auroras which have been circulating are certainly impressive, this has got me thinking about the Carrington Event [1], as well as a poss

While the photos of the auroras which have been circulating are certainly impressive, this has got me thinking about the Carrington Event [1], as well as a possible future event of equal or greater magnitude. I'm not an electronics expert, but I'm guessing that the reason we're so vulnerable to such an event today is because our infrastructure was originally built without such an event in mind, and now the upgrade cost is prohibitively expensive. But hypothetically, if a sufficiently-damaging coronal mass ejection occurred, such that we were forced to rebuild Earth's electronics infrastructure and electrical grids from scratch, what design changes would we make the 2nd time around? For example: -adding built-in shielding to protect against electromagnetic interference -implementing redundancy in critical systems to maintain functionality -adding early warning systems so that we can take preventative measures like shutting down vulnerable systems -building a more decentralized electrical grid with smaller, interconnected systems to limit the extent of disruptions Would taking these steps be sufficient to protect us from major CMEs, or would it be like throwing pebbles at a giant? 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event

Ledgerseig 2y ago
No one would be willing to spend for an extreme level black swan event that is not proven to have ever happen. That said, the magnetic field is down 15% since the carrington event. Magnetic poles are moving fast (north to siberia, south outside antartica already) to meet around indonesia. When the sun will go micronova there's little chance electrical systems and the like will survive. Anyway the CME is the least of the worries, consider the earth reacts to such an event in unexepected ways...
UncleOxidant 2y ago
> But hypothetically, if a sufficiently-damaging coronal mass ejection occurred, such that we were forced to rebuild Earth's electronics infrastructure and electrical grids from scratch, what design changes would we make the 2nd time around? I'd guess the goal would be to get things going again as fast as possible so no, I doubt there would be much time & effort put into some of the points you mention, at least in the short term. Decentralization might come not so much by design in an event like that, but out of necessity.
ianburrell 2y ago
There is no worry with electronics and Carrington Event or high-altitude EMP. The wavelengths are too long and electronics are too small. The main risk is induced current in long wires. I read article recently that long-distance fiber optic cables are vulnerable even under the sea. My understanding is that it is fairly easy to protect the electrical grid from solar storms. It requires adding grounding at all of the vulnerable equipment. My impression is that the cables won't be hurt but the transformers can be destroyed. It sounds feasible to do but requires the government to regulate the utilities and provide money. That would be a lot cheaper than implementing distributed grids. It is much more efficient to put lots of solar panels in sunny areas than enough panels and batteries in each house. We have early warning system. This notice is from space weather tracking that detects flares and predicts if and when they will hit Earth. I don't know if anyone is thinking about how to decide and shut down the grid temporarily, but it should be something they are thinking about.
- madaxe_again 2y ago
  As you say, carrington events are likely only to damage grids - however miyake events are so intense that cosmic rays penetrate deep into the atmosphere, and cosmic rays can cause electronics to have a very bad time indeed.
  - r2_pilot 2y ago
    That's why everyone is running ECC, yes?
- schiffern 2y ago
  > There is no worry with electronics ... high-altitude EMP. The wavelengths are too long and electronics are too small. This is true for the E3 (second-scale) pulse and CMEs, but the E1 (nanosecond-scale) and E2 (millisecond-scale) EMP pulses are broadband and can indeed damage small electronics. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQwv02RP8F4&t=8s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQwv02RP8F4&t=8s

Ledgerseig 2y ago

No one would be willing to spend for an extreme level black swan event that is not proven to have ever happen. That said, the magnetic field is down 15% since the carrington event. Magnetic poles are moving fast (north to siberia, south outside antartica already) to meet around indonesia. When the sun will go micronova there's little chance electrical systems and the like will survive. Anyway the CME is the least of the worries, consider the earth reacts to such an event in unexepected ways...

UncleOxidant 2y ago

> But hypothetically, if a sufficiently-damaging coronal mass ejection occurred, such that we were forced to rebuild Earth's electronics infrastructure and electrical grids from scratch, what design changes would we make the 2nd time around? I'd guess the goal would be to get things going again as fast as possible so no, I doubt there would be much time & effort put into some of the points you mention, at least in the short term. Decentralization might come not so much by design in an event like that, but out of necessity.

ianburrell 2y ago

There is no worry with electronics and Carrington Event or high-altitude EMP. The wavelengths are too long and electronics are too small. The main risk is induced current in long wires. I read article recently that long-distance fiber optic cables are vulnerable even under the sea. My understanding is that it is fairly easy to protect the electrical grid from solar storms. It requires adding grounding at all of the vulnerable equipment. My impression is that the cables won't be hurt but the transformers can be destroyed. It sounds feasible to do but requires the government to regulate the utilities and provide money. That would be a lot cheaper than implementing distributed grids. It is much more efficient to put lots of solar panels in sunny areas than enough panels and batteries in each house. We have early warning system. This notice is from space weather tracking that detects flares and predicts if and when they will hit Earth. I don't know if anyone is thinking about how to decide and shut down the grid temporarily, but it should be something they are thinking about.

madaxe_again 2y ago
As you say, carrington events are likely only to damage grids - however miyake events are so intense that cosmic rays penetrate deep into the atmosphere, and cosmic rays can cause electronics to have a very bad time indeed.
- r2_pilot 2y ago
  That's why everyone is running ECC, yes?
schiffern 2y ago
> There is no worry with electronics ... high-altitude EMP. The wavelengths are too long and electronics are too small. This is true for the E3 (second-scale) pulse and CMEs, but the E1 (nanosecond-scale) and E2 (millisecond-scale) EMP pulses are broadband and can indeed damage small electronics. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQwv02RP8F4&t=8s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQwv02RP8F4&t=8s