4 ms·

I suspect that if you wold do this as a twin study, where other twin is does not become a runners, the twin would live as long. good health -> running -> livi

by nabla9 2y ago

I suspect that if you wold do this as a twin study, where other twin is does not become a runners, the twin would live as long. good health -> running -> living long good health -> living long

maxerickson 2y ago
There's also non lethal health effects to consider. I imagine plenty of long/extreme distance runners are doing fine with their joints and such, but there's also lots of people that end up with lingering problems due to athletic injuries.
s1artibartfast 2y ago
I dont think that is a very good working model for humans. Not everyone with good health maintains good health. Not everyone with bad health maintains bad health. People make decisions that alter their trajectory all the time.
- nabla9 2y ago
  'not everyone' is not a relevant argument. Good runners are generally healthy as a starting point.
  - WarOnPrivacy 2y ago
    > Good runners are generally healthy as a starting point. This seems reasonable. I suspect they have other humany advantages: Like being in a place psychologically and financially where a running regimen can thrive.
  - s1artibartfast 2y ago
    So are most humans when they come out of the womb. There is obviously selection bias at play and I agree that your world record runners are not a random sample from the population. That said, thinking exercise and choice has no impact on life outcomes is equally silly. Someone who starts with good health and gets addicted to crack will have different outcomes to someone who trains at a competitive level. Starting point is not the sole determinant
    - nabla9 2y ago
      > thinking exercise and choice has no impact on life outcomes My argument takes as a starting point the fact that exercise increases life and healthspan. Twin studies demonstrate that exercise provides benefits for longevity, but the longevity effect is significantly smaller than previously thought. Most of the longevity benefit was explained by other lifestyle factors like smoking, alcohol use, and body mass index. > Starting point is not the sole determinant Using logical language to discuss statistic is not good idea. Everything is multicausal. Ordering causes by their significance is what matters.
      - s1artibartfast 2y ago
        IT sounds like we largely agree then. My objection was that you made it seem like life status at t1 (initial good health) is as good of a predictor of outcomes as life status at t1 plus all of the additional details for the rest of the life. You could not have predicted this outcome based on initial good health.
        nabla9 2y ago
        See my new comment. https://news.ycombinator.com/reply?id=40329248&goto=threads%3Fid%3Dnabla9%2340329248 https://news.ycombinator.com/reply?id=40329248&goto=threads%...
        s1artibartfast 2y ago
        that is completely unrelated to my point.
nabla9 2y ago
Twin studies are needed and they exist https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3893360/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3893360/ > It is concluded that exercise attitudes and exercise behavior are heritable, that attitudes and behavior are partly correlated through pleiotropic genetic effects, but that the data are compatible with a causal association between exercise attitudes and behavior. Here are some popular articles: Does exercise really do nothing for longevity, as a Finnish twins study suggests? https://theconversation.com/does-exercise-really-do-nothing-for-longevity-as-a-finnish-twins-study-suggests-219344 https://theconversation.com/does-exercise-really-do-nothing-... >When smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI) were taken into account in the analysis, the link between exercise and longevity was much reduced, with only a 9% difference in death rate between the least active group and others – and no difference between the highly and moderately active. In other words, for a hypothetical twin pair with very different activity levels but the same smoking history, alcohol use and BMI, there would be very little difference in life expectancy. What Happens When One Twin Exercises and the Other Doesn’t https://www.outsideonline.com/health/training-performance/twin-exercise-research-2022/ https://www.outsideonline.com/health/training-performance/tw...

by nabla9 2y ago

I suspect that if you wold do this as a twin study, where other twin is does not become a runners, the twin would live as long. good health -> running -> living long good health -> living long

maxerickson 2y ago

There's also non lethal health effects to consider. I imagine plenty of long/extreme distance runners are doing fine with their joints and such, but there's also lots of people that end up with lingering problems due to athletic injuries.

s1artibartfast 2y ago

I dont think that is a very good working model for humans. Not everyone with good health maintains good health. Not everyone with bad health maintains bad health. People make decisions that alter their trajectory all the time.

nabla9 2y ago
'not everyone' is not a relevant argument. Good runners are generally healthy as a starting point.
- WarOnPrivacy 2y ago
  > Good runners are generally healthy as a starting point. This seems reasonable. I suspect they have other humany advantages: Like being in a place psychologically and financially where a running regimen can thrive.
- s1artibartfast 2y ago
  So are most humans when they come out of the womb. There is obviously selection bias at play and I agree that your world record runners are not a random sample from the population. That said, thinking exercise and choice has no impact on life outcomes is equally silly. Someone who starts with good health and gets addicted to crack will have different outcomes to someone who trains at a competitive level. Starting point is not the sole determinant
  - nabla9 2y ago
    > thinking exercise and choice has no impact on life outcomes My argument takes as a starting point the fact that exercise increases life and healthspan. Twin studies demonstrate that exercise provides benefits for longevity, but the longevity effect is significantly smaller than previously thought. Most of the longevity benefit was explained by other lifestyle factors like smoking, alcohol use, and body mass index. > Starting point is not the sole determinant Using logical language to discuss statistic is not good idea. Everything is multicausal. Ordering causes by their significance is what matters.
    - s1artibartfast 2y ago
      IT sounds like we largely agree then. My objection was that you made it seem like life status at t1 (initial good health) is as good of a predictor of outcomes as life status at t1 plus all of the additional details for the rest of the life. You could not have predicted this outcome based on initial good health.
      - nabla9 2y ago
        See my new comment. https://news.ycombinator.com/reply?id=40329248&goto=threads%3Fid%3Dnabla9%2340329248 https://news.ycombinator.com/reply?id=40329248&goto=threads%...
        s1artibartfast 2y ago
        that is completely unrelated to my point.

nabla9 2y ago

Twin studies are needed and they exist https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3893360/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3893360/ > It is concluded that exercise attitudes and exercise behavior are heritable, that attitudes and behavior are partly correlated through pleiotropic genetic effects, but that the data are compatible with a causal association between exercise attitudes and behavior. Here are some popular articles: Does exercise really do nothing for longevity, as a Finnish twins study suggests? https://theconversation.com/does-exercise-really-do-nothing-for-longevity-as-a-finnish-twins-study-suggests-219344 https://theconversation.com/does-exercise-really-do-nothing-... >When smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index (BMI) were taken into account in the analysis, the link between exercise and longevity was much reduced, with only a 9% difference in death rate between the least active group and others – and no difference between the highly and moderately active. In other words, for a hypothetical twin pair with very different activity levels but the same smoking history, alcohol use and BMI, there would be very little difference in life expectancy. What Happens When One Twin Exercises and the Other Doesn’t https://www.outsideonline.com/health/training-performance/twin-exercise-research-2022/ https://www.outsideonline.com/health/training-performance/tw...