at the beginning of every day, the market has a greater probability of going up than down, and a risk adjusted positive expected value (which is a different thi

at the beginning of every day, the market has a greater probability of going up than down, and a risk adjusted positive expected value (which is a different thing) Therefore, your money should always be "in the market", not out of the market. Therefore, it's very difficult to make the case that the market is short sighted. I think what you are trying to say is that immediate risks are better understood than longer term, so the more distant future has higher volatility.