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What a weird future. AI reduces the need for humans, AI then makes products for people to buy. Those people now don't have jobs to consume the products made by

What a weird future. AI reduces the need for humans, AI then makes products for people to buy. Those people now don't have jobs to consume the products made by AI. It's almost like we need a new economic system which guarantees a nice lifestyle even if you just don't want to work. And then if you want nicer things, like a bigger house you can be one of the lucky ones who can still find a job. It's not to far off to say within 20 years driving/transportation will be completely automated. We'll have mail robots drop off packages. Robots building houses, etc. I don't see a utopian no work future though. More like a dystopian high income disparity future

johnkpaul 2y ago
I feel like I'm noticing this more and more often in media in general and definitely hacker-news-circulated media. This weird future is straight out of manna - https://marshallbrain.com/manna1 https://marshallbrain.com/manna1
- 999900000999 2y ago
  I've read that short story before. It's wildly optimistic to think the government would opt to give everyone housing over just letting them struggle.
nine_zeros 2y ago
The future involves UBI - there is no other way. But, before that, - A lot of people will be shed from jobs because companies seem to prefer this over loss of shareholder value - A lot of products will become shitty as they try to extract money. - A lot of companies will collapse as people will not have the money until UBI is implemented.
- 999900000999 2y ago
  Thanks for seeing my bigger point, I don't know the specifics of course but less people will have jobs in the future. As is UBI would probably be more efficient then the patchwork of programs we have now. But I don't really see that happening anytime soon.
tester756 2y ago
>We'll have mail robots drop off packages. Robots building houses, etc. Robots building houses? I don't believe it Robots/Machines need not small maintenance squad in great environment like semiconductor fab, but somehow they'll manage to be productive in mess like construction site?
- overstay8930 2y ago
  the precision required in home building is incredibly low, a drunk human can frame without even thinking. It will probably just be a small group of people maintaining a few machines doing the repetitive work while humans put in the final touches and fix the broken shit. definitely 20-30 years out though, its so much easier said than done.
  - tester756 2y ago
    precision maybe is not at the semiconductor level but there's shitton of tasks of varying kind to do where each of them can/is usually customized (unlike manufacturing line)
    - ohmyiv 2y ago
      They don't have to be at a construction site. It can be in a factory on a production line. Prefabricated homes have been around for a while. Mobile homes are probably the most common, but there are also modular and panel homes that can be made in a factory, then put together on-site. This site has good info about factory homes. There's a lot of cool things going on in that area. https://modernprefabs.com/ https://modernprefabs.com/
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
overstay8930 2y ago
AI reduces the need for low skill humans, the skill ceiling is just being raised. Even AGI won't replace most jobs because literally nobody trusts it, and the companies who do will eventually suffer fallout when it fails. It's just like self driving cars, nobody cares when humans crash, but if a self driving car slows down traffic people are burning them down in the streets. The only people who are fucked are people in third world countries because AI is cheaper than human labor. Inequality is gonna go through the roof and if I lived in a crappy place I would be doing anything I can to get to a first world country.
- codewench 2y ago
  >AI reduces the need for low skill humans Except the focus on AI has been replacing _high_ skill jobs like artists, writers, and developers. The end-goal of AI devotees is that humans will dig the ditches, and AI will do all the 'fun stuff'. It's not a great plan, but they seem really gung-ho about it.
  - dmz73 2y ago
    Close - "AI" is replace high paying moderate skill jobs. Those artists, writers and developers that are being replaced are not in the innovative and creative roles, they are just the assembly workers putting together or "fluffing up" work of other people. Not great for those people and increasing the inequality overall.
xandrius 2y ago
I'm not sure what region you're talking about but the world is really huge and varied, in 20 years no way every country will be at that stage of automation.
- bennyhill 2y ago
  Seems like the difference between cell phones and landlines implies things like self driving cars will be spread without relying on most people in a region affording them before construction starts. The fully automated vehicles may be a lot more dangerous in some places than others, but you'll probably be able to get run down in the middle of nowhere.

johnkpaul 2y ago

I feel like I'm noticing this more and more often in media in general and definitely hacker-news-circulated media. This weird future is straight out of manna - https://marshallbrain.com/manna1 https://marshallbrain.com/manna1

999900000999 2y ago
I've read that short story before. It's wildly optimistic to think the government would opt to give everyone housing over just letting them struggle.

nine_zeros 2y ago

The future involves UBI - there is no other way. But, before that, - A lot of people will be shed from jobs because companies seem to prefer this over loss of shareholder value - A lot of products will become shitty as they try to extract money. - A lot of companies will collapse as people will not have the money until UBI is implemented.

999900000999 2y ago
Thanks for seeing my bigger point, I don't know the specifics of course but less people will have jobs in the future. As is UBI would probably be more efficient then the patchwork of programs we have now. But I don't really see that happening anytime soon.

tester756 2y ago

>We'll have mail robots drop off packages. Robots building houses, etc. Robots building houses? I don't believe it Robots/Machines need not small maintenance squad in great environment like semiconductor fab, but somehow they'll manage to be productive in mess like construction site?

overstay8930 2y ago
the precision required in home building is incredibly low, a drunk human can frame without even thinking. It will probably just be a small group of people maintaining a few machines doing the repetitive work while humans put in the final touches and fix the broken shit. definitely 20-30 years out though, its so much easier said than done.
- tester756 2y ago
  precision maybe is not at the semiconductor level but there's shitton of tasks of varying kind to do where each of them can/is usually customized (unlike manufacturing line)
  - ohmyiv 2y ago
    They don't have to be at a construction site. It can be in a factory on a production line. Prefabricated homes have been around for a while. Mobile homes are probably the most common, but there are also modular and panel homes that can be made in a factory, then put together on-site. This site has good info about factory homes. There's a lot of cool things going on in that area. https://modernprefabs.com/ https://modernprefabs.com/
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]

overstay8930 2y ago

AI reduces the need for low skill humans, the skill ceiling is just being raised. Even AGI won't replace most jobs because literally nobody trusts it, and the companies who do will eventually suffer fallout when it fails. It's just like self driving cars, nobody cares when humans crash, but if a self driving car slows down traffic people are burning them down in the streets. The only people who are fucked are people in third world countries because AI is cheaper than human labor. Inequality is gonna go through the roof and if I lived in a crappy place I would be doing anything I can to get to a first world country.

codewench 2y ago
>AI reduces the need for low skill humans Except the focus on AI has been replacing _high_ skill jobs like artists, writers, and developers. The end-goal of AI devotees is that humans will dig the ditches, and AI will do all the 'fun stuff'. It's not a great plan, but they seem really gung-ho about it.
- dmz73 2y ago
  Close - "AI" is replace high paying moderate skill jobs. Those artists, writers and developers that are being replaced are not in the innovative and creative roles, they are just the assembly workers putting together or "fluffing up" work of other people. Not great for those people and increasing the inequality overall.

xandrius 2y ago

I'm not sure what region you're talking about but the world is really huge and varied, in 20 years no way every country will be at that stage of automation.

bennyhill 2y ago
Seems like the difference between cell phones and landlines implies things like self driving cars will be spread without relying on most people in a region affording them before construction starts. The fully automated vehicles may be a lot more dangerous in some places than others, but you'll probably be able to get run down in the middle of nowhere.